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At the end of each year, the German Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt) publishes the road safety balance of the closing year. They describe the development of accident and casualty numbers disaggregated by road user types, age groups, type of road and the consequences of the accidents. However, at the time of publishing, these series are only available for the first eight or nine months of the year. To make the balance for the whole year, the last three or four months are forecasted. The objective of this study was to improve the accuracy of these forecasts through structural time-series models that include effects of meteorological conditions. The results show that, compared to the earlier heuristic approach, root mean squared errors are reduced by up to 55% and only two out of the 27 different data series yield a modest rise of prediction errors. With the exception of four data series, prediction accuracies also clearly improve incorporating meteorological data in the analysis. We conclude that our approach provides a valid alternative to provide input to policy makers in Germany.
There is considerable evidence for the negative effects of driver distraction on road safety. In many experimental studies, drivers have been primarily viewed as passive receivers of distraction. Thus, there is a lack of research on the mediating role of their self-regulatory behavior. The aim of the current study was to compare drivers' performance when engaged in a system-paced secondary task with a self-paced version of this task and how both differed from baseline driving performance without distraction. Thirty-nine participants drove in a simulator while performing a secondary visual"manual task. One group of drivers had to work on this task in predefined situations under time pressure, whereas the other group was free to decide when to work on the secondary task (self-regulation group). Drivers' performance (e.g., lateral and longitudinal control, brake reaction times) was also compared with a baseline condition without any secondary task. For the system-paced secondary task, distraction was associated with high decrements in driving performance (especially in keeping the lateral position). No effects were found for the number of collisions, probably because of the lower driving speeds while distracted (compensatory behavior). For the self-regulation group, only small impairments in driving performance were found. Drivers engaged less in the secondary task during foreseeable demanding or critical driving situations. Overall, drivers in the self-regulation group were able to anticipate the demands of different traffic situations and to adapt their engagement in the secondary task, so that only small impairments in driving performance occurred. Because in real traffic drivers are mostly free to decide when to engage in secondary tasks, it can be concluded that self-regulation should be considered in driver distraction research to ensure ecological validity.
As bearing capacity measurements become more and more important, the necessity of assuring quality by establishing a QA system becomes more relevant. Within this context, the FGSV recommends the introduction of comparative measurements. Since 2015, two pilot events took place, with the main aim of introducing repetitive comparative measurements, in which all FWD operators shall participate. The results of the comparative measurements show that the basic principles behind comparative measurements (of the FWD), elaborated as a Europe-wide consensus and put into practice in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, are valid, but still there is a variety of questions to be answered concerning certain details of the measuring system itself, e. g. measurement of the temperatures (air, pavement) and the impact of load introduction. All in all, the two pilot events in 2015 and 2016 proved that the comparability of the different FWD measuring devices is satisfactory.
A sociological perspective on different strategies of reward in urban traffic law enforcement
(1996)
In order to enhance road safety, it is necessary to make road users change their behaviour. There are two forms of police enforcement: punishment for breaking traffic regulations and rewards for rule-conformist behaviour. Punishment does not appear to produce long term changes. There are two main reward strategies: individual and group dependent rewards. Individuals who are members of a clearly defined group have good prospects of winning prizes in a lottery. The strategy of the delegated group dependent reward is based on a donation to a social institution. Traffic safety is a conflict of interests, and game theory considerations can be applied. Results of German and Dutch studies confirm hypotheses based on the game theory concept. Traffic behaviour mostly depends on expectation of others' behaviour. Successful strategies of reward should always be based on individual settlements of the rewards. More investigations are needed. Strategies of group dependent reward are not recommended. The size of reward and probability of winning it should be linked to rate of participation: the greater the participation, the greater the value of reward and probability of winning it. Every driver has a threshold from which he is prepared to change his traffic behaviour for a reward.
In 2016 the seventh ESAR conference (Expert Symposium on Accident Research) was held in Hannover. ESAR is an international convention of experts, who analyze traffic accidents all over the world and discuss their results in this context, conducted at the Medizinische Hochschule Hannover every 2 years. It connected representatives of public authorities, engineers in automotive development and scientists and offers a forum with particular emphasis on In-Depth-Analyses of accident statistics and accident analyses. Special focus is placed on research on the basis of so-called "In-Depth-Accident-Investigations" [data collections at the sites of the accidents], which are characterized by extensive documentations of the sites of the accidents, of the vehicles as well as of the injuries, encompassing several scientific fields. ESAR aims at a multi-disciplinary compilation of scientific results and at discussing them on an international, scientific level. It is thus a scientific colloquium and a platform for exchanging information for all accident researchers. Experiences in accident prevention as well as in the complex field of accident reconstruction are stated and new research fields are added. Existing results of long-term research work in Europe, the US, Australia and Japan include different infrastructural correlations and give findings on population, vehicle population and driver characteristics, which offer a basis for recommendations to be derived and measures for increasing road safety.
This study was one part of the research activities of work package 5 "Rehabilitation" of the integrated EU DRUID project (6th Framework Programme). It aimed at gathering information about the cognitive"affective and behavioral processes that participants undergo while attending driver rehabilitation (DR) programs. The primary objective was to analyze the outcomes of group interventions for alcohol offenders in order to assess any cognitive, motivational and behavioral modifications within individual participants and to identify the relevant variables which initiate and support this change process. The general methodological concept of the study was a prospective cohort design of participants of group-based European driver rehabilitation programs, carried out via a participant feedback questionnaire survey. In total N=7.339 DUI offenders in 9 European countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands and Poland) participated in the survey. The results indicate that DR participants feel such programs provide strong support for their cognitive and behavioral change processes. The findings suggest that participants feel encouraged to establish new behavioral goals and the commitment to stick to them. At the same time, the participants' ratings emphasize the important role of the course leader in encouraging such changes. The findings of this explorative questionnaire survey are promising. Although it is impossible to draw any conclusions regarding long-term behavioral changes or effects on recidivism rates, participants of DR courses express positive feedback on completion of the program. The positive outcomes of the study can motivate decisionmakers to launch DR measures and to regard them as an essential part of a comprehensive countermeasure system against DUI.
The use of alcohol interlocks for DUI offenders is widespread around the world. in North America and Australia alcohol interlocks are core elements in the countermeasure system against DUI recidivism. Based on a European experience exchange hosted by the Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt) in October 2013, key features of European alcohol interlock programmes are illustrated. In addition, key findings from international alcohol interlock research are presented. They point towards a need for an accompanying rehabilitative measure in order to achieve long-lasting behavioural changes in the offender. Data from the interlock recorder can be used as predictor for recidivism risk, but also as objective data to aid counselling. Finally, an example of an accompanying rehabilitative measure, which was specifically developed for interlock programmes within a BASt project, is given.
In 2011 399 cyclists died in road accidents in Germany and another 76.351 cyclists have been injured. Since 2000 the number of injured or fatally injured cyclists remained on the same high level. Cyclists form 19% of all casualties in German road traffic, although the modal split rate of this transport mode in 2008 was only 10% of trips and resp. 3% of kilometres per day. The high proportion of fatally and seriously injured shows the high vulnerability of cyclists. The demographic shift towards an older population in Germany and the governmental recommendation of increased bicycle use as an ecological, economical and healthy alternative to other modes of transport lead to the assumption that bicycle use especially of elderly people will increase. Based on these facts about the German cyclists' situation a representative survey of 2.000 cyclists was conducted. Results display use patterns and accident involvement on a descriptive level. Overall 7.7% of cyclists report to have been involved in at least one road traffic accident within the last three years. The performed path model analysis reveals an acceptable model fit. Though the explained variance of accident involvement of the applied psychological factors was low, significant relations between several of these factors and especially risky behaviour could be found.
Various kinds of demerit point systems have been developed and implemented in European countries, aimed at tackling repeat offences in road transport by acting as a deterrent and providing sanctioning. The impact of a demerit point system on the number of crashes is often reported to be significant, but temporary. The objective of the EU BestPoint project was to establish a set of recommended practices that would result in a more effective and sustainable contribution of demerit point systems to road safety. A high actual chance of losing the licence and a high perceived chance of losing the licence are basic prerequisites for the effective operation of demerit point systems. For measures applied within the context of a demerit point system, a four-step-approach is recommended: warning letter, driver improvement course, licence withdrawal, rehabilitation course. Further recommendations concern issues like points and offences, e.g. which offences should lead to points, target groups, and the administration of demerit point systems. The final result of the EU BestPoint project is a handbook (van Schagen & Machata, 2012) which provides a concise overview of all recommended practices. The presentation/paper outlines how sustainable safety improvements can be achieved if national demerit point systems are implemented and maintained according to the recommended practices. In addition, potential further steps towards an EU-wide demerit point system (cross-border exchange on points and/or offences) are presented.
In Germany, courses for the restoration of the fitness to drive after licence revocation are provided for different offender groups (alcohol, drug and demerit point offenders). Providers of these courses are by law required to prove the effectiveness of the applied course programs. For the evaluation of effectiveness, the Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt) established specific "Reference Values" in 2002. The objective of the study at hand was to collect valid data in order to renew the old-established Reference Values from 2002. Additionally, data collection aimed at initializing Reference Values for drug offender programs. Over 66,000 drivers were analysed regarding their traffic probation in the three years after licence reinstatement. Offenders were assigned to an offender group (alcohol, drugs and demerit point offenders) based on the reason for prior licence revocation. Different indicators were used as criteria for re-offending: new alcohol or drug records, culpable accident involvement and repeated licence revocation. For each of the offender groups, frequency distributions regarding these indicators were calculated. Frequencies of recidivism are highest for the group of demerit point offenders. Compared to the Reference Values of this group from 2002, frequencies of re-offending increased. Conversely, re-offence frequencies of alcohol offenders are halved compared to the data from 2001. The analysis of the re-offence frequencies of drug offenders reveals an equal amount of re-offenders as in the alcohol offender group. The collected data serve as a good base for renewal of the old-established Reference Values and may be applicable as comparative data for future evaluations The results reveal significant differences between recent data and earlier studies. These may occur due to improvements of the applied programmes, but also due to situational changes, e.g. increased enforcement levels and expansion of the catalogue of offenses which lead to demerit points.
The 6th RFP project DRUID aimed at supporting European transport policy makers by suggesting scientifically based recommendations to combat impaired driving. The main DRUID objectives were: 1. In-depth analysis of the problem situation with regard to DUI/DUID in Europe; 2. Assessment of prevalence and accident risks of DUI/DUID on the basis of epidemiological and experimental studies; 3. Evaluation of oral fluid screening devices and cost-benefit analysis of a strengthened drug driving enforcement; 4. Development of a classification system for medicines; 5. Evaluation of driver rehabilitation schemes and strategies of licence revocation; 6. Assessment of the effectiveness of new prescribing and dispensing guidelines for medicines; 7. Ddevelopment of policy recommendations on the basis of DRUID results. All in all, the DRUID results revealed that prevalence of psychoactive substance consumption, DUI/DUID, enforcement levels and legal strategies are very heterogeneous in European countries. Nonetheless, DRUID derives general recommendations as base for national solutions.
The DRUID expert consensus established recommendations on how to define limits for psychoactive substance use in traffic. The European DRUID project established a group of experts who are members of national working groups for defining analytical and/or risk thresholds. This group evaluated the results of DRUID, scientific literature and the experience of representatives of several EU Member States and Norway in determining cut-off levels. 1. Cut-offs should be defined for the most frequently used psychoactive substances; 2. In order to achieve compliance of the population towards cut-off regulations, they should be clear and comprehensible, pointing out the risks when used in traffic; 3. Thus, the definition of cut-offs should be based on current scientific knowledge; 4. The lowest substance concentration exerting an effect on driving should be preferred instead of the lowest limit of quantification/ detection; 5. For all psychoactive substances including alcohol, the same risk should be accepted. When a country intends to determine per se cut-off levels, several considerations have to be taken into account. From a scientific point of view, the same risk should be anticipated for all psychoactive substances including alcohol. Nevertheless, every cut-off discussion should address the question if the DRUID approach, to determine risk thresholds equivalent to alcohol limits, is feasible for the respective case.
The current paper reports on the results of a pilot study aiming to investigate the effect of mobile telephone use on the driving performance of 5 amateur and 5 professional drivers. Their driving acuity was tested through a driving simulator. Analysis and interpretation of the results occurred comparing the drivers' driving performance while talking, reading messages and writing a message on the mobile phone (intervention time) with the drivers' driving performance engaged in no activity (control time). The variables affected by the mobile phone were the "steering", the "lane offset" and the "duration of lane offset". Moreover, the drivers involved in a car crash in the last five years appeared to differ from those who were not involved in a crash in both "lane offset" and "following distance". The results of this pilot study will inform the design of a large experimental study on 50 professional and 50 amateur drivers.
The study aimed at estimating the impact of pedelecs (with an assumed higher speed than bicycles) on the traffic accident severity in Germany for different penetration rates. The analysis shows that in many real situations (68%) an electrical support of bicycles has no influence on the sequence of accident events. Taking into account a number of unreported "single bicycle accidents", the adoption of similar traffic behavior and similar age distribution, the authors determined a shift of 400 former slightly to seriously injured cyclists in Germany per year. Overall this would be an increase of approximately 2.3% in case of 10% of pedelec penetration with the pessimistic assumption of 10 km/h speed increase although first natural driving studies predict a much lower average speed increase of pedelecs. The hypothesis verbalized in the initial question whether a higher distribution of pedelecs will result in more severe accidents in Germany is not verified. The study shows that electrical support didn"t result in higher collision speed in general. In many accident situations, the speed of pedelecs has only a minor influence on the accident severity. Further research focusing on a possible change of driver behavior especially in new target groups (elderly people) will be needed.
Pedestrians represent about 20% of the overall fatalities in Europe- road traffic accidents. In this paper a methodology is proposed to understand why the numbers are so high, especially in the south of Europe and particularly in Portugal, . First a detailed statistical analysis using Ordinal Logistic Regression model (OLR) was applied to the gathered data from all Portuguese accidents with victims in the period 2010-2012. In a second stage accident reconstruction computational techniques using pedestrian biomechanical models are used to evaluate the accident conditions that lead to the injuries, such as the speed and the impact location. For biomechanical injury criterions, the AIS (Abbreviated Injury Scale), the HIC (Head Injury Criterion) and other injury criterions based on the resulting accelerations in the pedestrian's body are used. The statistical model reported that there were several predictors that significantly influenced the pedestrian injury severity in the event of a road accident, such as Pedestrian's age, Pedestrian's gender, Vehicle Design/Category or Driver's gender. The use of injury scales and biomechanical criterions in in-depth investigation of road accidents, such as AIS, can significantly improve the quality of the reconstruction process.
The declining trend since 1991 in the number of killed people was broken in 2011 when overall 4 009 people died in traffic accidents in Germany. The question arises if there is a stagnating trend of fatalities in Germany in future? By breaking down the accidents with casualties towards a monthly view one can see a decreasing trend of fatalities in the warmer months especially since 2009. When comparing against winter months higher deviations are observed. In December 2011 an increase of 191 traffic deaths were registered (181 in 2010 compared to 372 in 2011). Further analyses of different accident influences were evaluated and their possibility of drastic change from one year to the other was determined. As seen weather- and environmental conditions are one of the major contributing factors and are one of the causes for the increased number of fatalities. To support the underlying assumption a model had been created to calculate the number of traffic deaths on a daily basis approach. As an input, road conditions projected through weather parameters and also different driving behaviors on weekdays or holidays were used. As a result, estimates of daily fatality with up to 75% precision can be achieved out of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 data. Further on it shows that weather and street conditions have a high influence on the overall resulting number of traffic accidents with casualties, and especially to the number of fatalities. Hence it is estimated that approximately 3 300 people were killed in traffic accidents in Germany in 2013 which would be again a reduction of another 13% compared to 2012. Therefore an answer to the question will be that the decreasing trend in traffic fatalities in Germany somehow is not broken when environmental conditions are included in national statistics. Their effects will become more visible in future accident statistics and it is estimated variances of 5% to 8% of the annual number of traffic fatalities in Germany will be seen.
Within the COST Action TU1101 the working group WG 1 is dealing with acceptance criteria and problems in helmet use while bicycling concerning conspicuity, thermal stress, ventilation deficits and other potential confounding. To analyze the helmet usage practice of bicyclists in Europe a questionnaire was developed in the scope of working group 1 to collect relevant information by means of a field study. The questionnaire consists of some 66 questions covering the fields of personal data of the cyclist, riding und helmet usage habits, information concerning the helmet model and the sensation of the helmet, as well as information on previous bicycle accidents. A second complementary study is conducted to analyze if the use of a bicycle helmet influences the seating geometry and the posture of cyclists when riding a bicycle and if the if the helmet vertically limits the vision. For this purpose cyclists with and without helmets were photographed in real world situations and relevant geometrical values such as the decline of the torso, the head posture of the upper vertical vision limit due to the helmet were established from the photos. The interim results of the field studies which were conducted in Germany by the Hannover Medical School are presented in this study. Some 227 questionnaires were filled out, of which 67 participants had used a helmet and 42 of the 227 participants have had a bicycle accident before. For the analysis of the riding position and posture of the cyclist over 40 pictures of riders with a helmet and over 240 pictures of riders without a helmet were measured concerning the seating geometry to describe the influence of using a bicycle helmet. Some results in summary: From the riders interviewed with the questionnaire only 11% of the city bike riders and 12% of the mountain bike riders always used the helmet, while 38% of the racing bike riders and 88% of the e-bike-riders always used the helmet. The helmet use seems not to change the sensation of safety of cycling compared to the use of a car. The arguments for not wearing a helmet are mostly stated to be the short distance of a trip, high temperatures or carelessness and waste of time. The reasons for using a helmet are stated to be the feeling of safety and being used to using a helmet. Being a role model for others was also stated to be a reason for helmet use. Concerning the sensation of the helmet 9% of the riders reported problems with the field of vision when using a helmet, 57% saw the problem of sweating too much, and 10% reported headaches or other unpleasant symptoms like pressure on the forehead when using the helmet. The analysis of the seating posture from the pictures taken of cyclists revealed that older cyclists generally have a riding position where the handle bar is higher than the seat (0-° to 10-° incline from seat to handlebar), while younger riders had a higher variance (between -10-° decline and 20-° incline). Further, elderly riders and riders with helmets seem to have a more upright position of the upper body when cycling. The vertical vision limit due to the helmet is determined by the front rim of the helmet (mostly the sun shade). Typical values here range from 0-° (horizontal line from the eye to the sun shade) to 75-° upwards, in which elderly riders tend to have a slightly higher vertical vision limit possibly due to the helmet being worn more towards the face.
The paper gives an overview of the recent (mostly 2012) figures of killed bus/coach occupants (drivers and passengers) in 27 Member States of the European Union as reported by CARE. The Evolution of the figures of bus/coach occupants killed in road accidents urban, rural without motorway and on motorways from 1991 to 2010 in 15 Member States of the EU supplements this information. More detailed are the figures reported for Germany by the Federal Statistics. The paper displays long-term evaluations (1957 to 2012) for killed, seriously and slightly injured occupants in all kinds of buses/coaches. Midterm evaluations (1995 to 2012) of the figures of fatalities and casualties are displayed for different busses according to their identification of road using as coaches, urban buses, school buses, trolley buses and "other buses". To be able to compare the evolutions of the safety of vehicle occupants it is customary to use different risk indicators. Calculations and illustrations for three often used indicators with their development over time are given: fatalities, seriously injured and slightly injured per 100,000 vehicles registered, per 1 billion (109) vehicle-kilometres travelled and per 1 billion (109) person-kilometres. These indicators are shown for occupants of cars, goods vehicles and buses/coaches. For the period from 1957 until 2012 it is obvious, that for all three vehicle categories analysed there was a clear long-term trend towards more occupant safety in terms of casualties per vehicles registered and per vehicle mileage. This was most significant for car occupants but it can be seen for bus/coach occupants and goodsvehicle occupants as well. Figures of killed occupants and of casualties related to person-kilometres are calculated and displayed for the shorter period 1995 to 2012. Here it becomes obvious that the bus/coach is still the safest mode of transport for the occupants of road vehicles. Graphs for the casualty risk indices still show significantly higher risks for car occupants despite the corresponding curve moved sustainable downwards. It is remarkable, that the risks of being killed or injured for the occupants of urban buses is growing whereas the corresponding risk for the occupants of coaches in line traffic tends downwards. The article ends with a short comparison and discussion of the risk indicators which are actually published for the occupants (driver and passengers) of cars and the passengers of buses/coaches, railroads, trams and airplanes. The interpretation of such information depends on the perception and it seems that for a complete view not only one indicator should be used and the evolutions of the indicator values during longer periods (as displayed with examples in the paper) should also be taken into account.
While it is important to track trends in the number of road accidents in different countries using national statistics, there is a need for data with more detailed information, so called in-depth accident data. For this reason, several accident data projects emerged worldwide in recent years. However, also different data standards were established and so comparative analysis of international in-depth data has been very hard to conduct, so far. This is why the project iGLAD (Initiative for the Global Harmonization of Accident Data) was established and created the prerequisites for building up a standardized dataset out of the common denominator of different in-depth accident databases from Europe, USA and Asia. In the first phase, the project received funding from ACEA to compile an initial database. To accomplish this, a suitable data scheme has been defined, a pilot study has been conducted as proof of concept and the recoding of the first common data base has been initiated. Also, to prepare the project for its self-supporting continuation in the next years, a business model has been developed. This paper reports the history and status of the project, the current challenges and the creation of a capable consortium to maintain the data. In mid-2014, the initial database containing 1550 cases from 10 different countries will be completed and a first detailed view on this data will be possible.
In 2014 the sixth ESAR conference (Expert Symposium on Accident Research) was held in Hannover. ESAR is an international convention of experts, who analyze traffic accidents all over the world and discuss their results in this context, conducted at the Medizinische Hochschule Hannover every 2 years. It connected representatives of public authorities, engineers in automotive development and scientists and offers a forum with particular emphasis on In-Depth-Analyses of accident statistics and accident analyses. Special focus is placed on research on the basis of so-called "In-Depth-Accident-Investigations" [data collections at the sites of the accidents], which are characterized by extensive documentations of the sites of the accidents, of the vehicles as well as of the injuries, encompassing several scientific fields. ESAR aims at a multi-disciplinary compilation of scientific results and at discussing them on an international, scientific level. It is thus a scientific colloquium and a platform for exchanging information for all accident researchers. Experiences in accident prevention as well as in the complex field of accident reconstruction are stated and new research fields are added. Existing results of long-term research work in Europe, the US, Australia and Japan include different infrastructural correlations and give findings on population, vehicle population and driver characteristics, which offer a basis for recommendations to be derived and measures for increasing road safety.