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With an ever rising human life expectancy the share of elderly people in society is constantly rising. This leads to the fact that at the same rate the share of people with age related diseases such as dementia and poor eyesight taking part in traffic will rise and therefore traffic accidents caused by this group of people due to the disease will play an ever greater role. This Situation will be among the future challenges of road safety work. At present this study displays specific characteristics of accidents caused by elderly car drivers (aged 65 or higher) based on the analysis of the German In-Depth Accident Study GIDAS. Herein almost 1000 elderly car drivers were identified as accident participants in the years 2008 to 2011. The focus of this study lies on identifying special types of accidents which are caused by elderly drivers and on characterizing these types with the information gathered on scene and by interviewing the participants. The main evidence analyzed is the knowledge about the accident locality, the trajectories of the participants as well as the reasons for the occurrence of the accidents. Furthermore personal information such as the personal condition before the accident and driving purposes is used to identify patterns of contributing circumstances for accidents caused by elderly traffic participants.
The GIDAS-investigation team of Dresden (VUFO) has documented more than 11.500 accidents since 1999. The documentation of the accident includes beside vehicle-, injury- and environmental-data very detailed reconstruction data. Within this accident investigation the VUFO began to record the skid resistance of the accident site in 2009. The measurements are divided in macro- and microroughness (Sand depth method and Portable Skid Resistance Tester-SRT-by Munro-Stanley London-©). Both methods are used to determine the skid resistance for more than 1000 passenger cars. The aim of the present study is to find out a relationship between the measured skid resistance, the road conditions and the friction coefficient, which is used to calculate the maximum accelerations and decelerations during a reconstruction of an accident. Basic approach to convert the SRT-value into the friction coefficient is the calculation of the theoretical absorbed energy of the spring rubber system of the swinging arm of lever. This absorbed energy is used to get the friction coefficient by using the equations for the work of friction. To consider the road-behavior, in correlation to the friction coefficient, the results will be merged with existing literature. Last step for this study will be a comparison between actual used friction coefficients all over the GIDAS-database and the theoretical results. The study shows, if it is possible to use the SRT-Measurement for the estimation of a friction coefficient for the reconstruction of a traffic accident. As expected, the GIDAS-Database and the additional measurement of the roughness of the road directly on the spot are an enormous useful dataset.
The main objective of EC CASPER research project is to reduce fatalities and injuries of children travelling in cars. Accidents involving children were investigated, modelling of human being and tools for dummies were advanced, a survey for the diagnosis of child safety was carried out and demands and applications were analysed. From the many research tasks of the CASPER project, the intention of this paper is to address the following: • In-depth investigation of accidents and accident reconstruction. These will provide important points for the injury risk curve, in order to improve it. Different accident investigation teams collected data from real road accidents, involving child car passengers, in five different European countries. Then, a selection of the most appropriate cases for the injury risk curve and the purposes of the project was made for an in-depth analysis. The final stage of this analysis was to conduct an accident reconstruction to validate the results obtained. The in-depth analysis included on-scene accident investigation, creating virtual simulations of the accident/possible reconstruction, and conducting the reconstruction. In the cases of successful reconstructions, new points were introduced to the injury risk curves. Accident reconstructions of selected cases were carried out in test laboratories as the next step following in-depth road accident investigation. These cases were reconstructed using similar child restraint systems (CRS) and the same type make and model as in the real accidents. Reconstructing real cases has several limitations, such as crash angle, cars" approximation paths and crash speed. However, a few changes and applications on the testing conditions were applied to reduce the limitations and improved the representations of the real accidents. After conducting the reconstructions, a comparison between the deformations of the cars on the real accident and the vehicles from the reconstructions was made. Additionally, a correlation between the data captured from the dummies and the injury data from the real accident was sought. This finalises an in-depth analysis of the accident, which will provide new relevant points to the injury risk curve. The CASPER project conducted a large research programme on child safety. On technical points, a promising research area is the developing injury risk curves as a result of in-depth accident investigations and reconstructions. This abstract was written whilst the project was not yet finished and final results are not yet known, but they will be available by the time of the conference. All the works and findings will not necessarily be integrated in the industrial versions of evaluation tools as the CASPER project is a research program.
Rear-end collisions are the most frequent same and opposite-direction crashes. Common causes include momentary inattention, inadequate speed or inadequate distance. While most rear-end collisions in urban traffic only result in vehicle damage or slight injuries, rear-end collisions outside built-up areas or on motorways usually cause fatal or serious injuries. Driver assistance systems that detect dangerous situations in the longitudinal vehicle direction are therefore an essential safety plus. In view of this, for ADAC, systems that alert drivers to dangerous situations and initiate autonomous braking complement ESC as one of the most important active safety features in modern vehicles. The aim of ADAC is to provide consumers with technical advice and competent information about the systems available on the market. Reliable comparative tests that are based on standardised test criteria may provide motorists with important information and help them make a buying decision. In addition, they raise consumer awareness of the systems and speed up their market penetration. The assessment must focus on as many aspects of effectiveness as possible and include not only autonomous braking but also collision warning and autonomous brake assist. The work of the ADAC accident research is the development of the testing scenarios with direct link to accident situations and the identification of useful test criteria for testing.
Introduction: Spine injuries pose a considerable risk to life and quality of life. The total number of road deaths in developed countries has markedly decreased, e.g. in Germany from over 20000 in 1970 to less than 4000 in 2010, but little is known how this is reflected in the burden of spine fractures of motor vehicle users. In this study, we aimed to show the actual incidence of spine injuries among drivers and front passengers and elucidate possible dependencies between crash mechanisms and types of injuries.
The objective of the study is to measure the risk of pedestrian and bicyclist in urban traffic through an analysis of real-world accident data. The kinematics and injury mechanisms for both pedestrian and bicyclists are investigated to find the correlation of injury risks with injury related parameters. For this purpose, firstly 338 cases are selected as a sample from an IVAC accident database based on the In-depth Investigation of Vehicle Accident in Changsha of China. A statistic measurement of the fatality and serious injury risks with respect to impact speed was carried out by logistic regression analysis. Secondly, 12 pedestrian and 12 bicyclist accidents were further selected for reconstruction with MADYMO program. A comparative analysis was conducted based on the results from accident analysis and computer reconstructions for the injury risk, head impact conditions and dynamic response of pedestrians and bicyclists. The results indicate that bicyclists suffered lower risks of severe injuries and fatalities compared with pedestrians. The risks of AIS 3+ injury and fatality are 50% for pedestrians at impact speeds of 53.2 km/h and 63.3 km/h, respectively, while that for bicyclists at 62.5 km/h and 71.1 km/h, respectively. The findings could have a contribution to get a better understanding of pedestrians" and bicyclists" exposures in urban traffic in China, and provide background knowledge to generate strategies for pedestrian protection.
From literature well-known analyzes on risks, hazards and causes of accidents of older drivers are amended by the present study in which a comparison of the specific features of accident causes of older car drivers (older than 60 years) and of younger car drivers (under 25 years) is conducted. Mainly the question is pursued if specific errors, mistakes and lapses are predominant in the two different age groups. The analysis system ACAS (Accident Causation Analysis System) used hereby consists of a sequential system of accident causation factors from the human, the technical and the infrastructural field, whereupon for this study the influence of the human features on the accident development in two different age groups is of interest. ACAS is both an accident model and an analysis and classification system, which describes the human participation factors of an accident and their causes in the temporal sequence (from the perceptibility to concrete action errors) taking into consideration the logical sequence of individual basic functions. In five steps (categories) of a logical and temporal sequence the hierarchical system makes human functions and processes as determinants of accident causes identifiable. The methodology specifically focuses on the use in so-called "In-Depth" and "On-Scene" investigation studies. With the help of the system for each accident participant one or more of five hypotheses of human cause factors are formed and then specified by appropriate verification criteria. These hypotheses in turn are further specified by indicators in such manner that the coding of the causation factors by a code system meets the needs of database processing and are accessible to a quantitative data analysis. The first results of the descriptive comparison of the two age groups concern mainly differences in the functional levels "information admission/perception" (where the elderly drivers have more difficulties than the young ones) and "information processing/evaluation" (where the younger drivers show more problems). Concerning the cognitive function of "planning" the group of younger drivers seems to be more often involved in an accident because of excessive speed.
Injuries in motorbike accidents in correlation with protective clothes and mechanism of the accident
(2013)
This study deals with a possible connection between safety clothing / accident mechanism and injury severity in a state-wide traffic accident investigation with focus on light and small motorbike-involvement for accidents in the area of the Saarland in which the persons riding the bike have been injured or killed. An interdisciplinary team of medical scientists and engineers collected the medical and technical data as well as all the relevant traces of the accident on scene and in time. During twenty months of data collection a total of 401 cases could be gathered. Grave injuries were more common for the group of heavier motorcycles (>125 ccm). Motorcyclists had been polytraumatized only in the group where the accident was connected with a collision. Significant correlation between protective clothes and injury severity could only be found for protective gloves and protective trousers. The knowledge about mechanism of the accident, protective clothes and severity of injuries can be helpful for the improvement of road and motorcyclists' safety.
Mit der vorliegenden Untersuchung knüpft die Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen an die letzte Untersuchung zum Unfallgeschehen von Wohnmobilen aus dem Jahr 1999 an. Neben der Entwicklung der Anzahl der Unfälle von Wohnmobilen im Zeitraum 2000 bis 2010 wird die Struktur der Unfälle beleuchtet. Auch die charakteristischen Merkmale der beteiligten Fahrer der Wohnmobile und einige technische Merkmale wie z.B. die Motorisierung und das zulässige Gesamtgewicht werden untersucht. Weiterhin wird die im Unfallgeschehen kleine Gruppe der Pkw mit Wohnanhänger soweit möglich in die Untersuchung einbezogen. Diese beiden Gruppen werden der Gesamtgruppe der Pkw-Unfälle vergleichend gegenübergestellt. Wohnmobile werden in der amtlichen Unfallstatistik nicht explizit codiert. Somit sind -im Rahmen der regelmäßigen Veröffentlichungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes -keine Informationen zum Unfallgeschehen von Wohnmobilen verfügbar. Dennoch ist es möglich, über die vom Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt ergänzten fahrzeugtechnischen Angaben zum Kraftfahrzeug, deutsche Wohnmobile zu identifizieren und mit der vollen Merkmalsbreite des amtlichen Datenmaterials auszuwerten. Mit einem Anteil von weniger als 0,3% an allen Unfällen mit Personenschaden stellen Unfälle unter Beteiligung von Wohnmobilen keinen Schwerpunkt im Unfallgeschehen dar. Im Jahr 2010 wurden 743 Unfälle mit Personenschaden registriert, an denen ein Wohnmobil beteiligt war. Die Entwicklung der Unfallbeteiligung stellt sich im Zeitraum 2000 bis 2010 mit einem Rückgang von 36% bei den Unfällen mit Personenschaden sogar günstiger dar, als die Entwicklung der Unfälle unter Pkw-Beteiligung (-28%). Bei Unfällen unter Beteiligung von Wohnmobilen wurden im Jahr 2010 insgesamt 19 Personen getötet und 202 Personen schwer verletzt. Darunter waren jedoch nur 4 getötete und 62 schwerverletzte Personen Insassen eines Wohnmobils; die übrigen Verunglückten wurden beim Unfallgegner registriert. Gleichwohl zeigt die nach Fahrern und Mitfahrern differenzierte Betrachtung der Unfallschwere bei den Wohnmobilen Ansatzpunkte zur Verbesserung der Sicherheit. Im Mittel des Zeitraumes 2000 bis 2010 weisen die Mitfahrer von Wohnmobilen eine deutlich erhöhte Unfallschwere im Vergleich zu den Fahrern auf. So liegt die Kenngrösse \"Schwere Personenschäden bezogen auf die Fahrer bzw. Mitfahrer\" bei den Mitfahrern bei 51 schweren Personenschäden je 1.000 Mitfahrer und bei den Fahrern bei 34 schweren Personenschäden je 1.000 Fahrer.
A total survey of road traffic accidents involving most severely injured, defined as sustaining a polytrauma or severe monotrauma (ISS > 15) or being killed, was conducted over 14 months in a large study region in Germany. Data on injuries, pre-clinical and clinical care, crash circumstances and vehicle damage were obtained both prospectively and retrospectively from trauma centers, dispatch centers, police and fire departments. 149 patients with a polytrauma and eight with a severe monotrauma were recorded altogether. 22 patients died in hospital. Another 76 victims had deceased at the accident scene. In 2008, 49 % of patients treated with life-threatening injuries were car or van occupants, 21 % motorcyclists, 18 % cyclists and 10 % pedestrians. Among fatalities at the scene, vehicle occupants constituted an even larger portion. The number of road users with life-threatening trauma in the region was extrapolated to the German situation. It suggests that 10 % among the "seriously injured" as defined in national accident statistics are surviving accident victims with a polytrauma or severe monotrauma.
Tree impacts are still one of the most important focal points of road deaths in Germany. For the year 2008, the latest figures in the national statistics show a share of 28% of road users killed in crashes with trees alongside a road amongst all crashes on rural roads (except the Autobahn). The official German statistics show the attribute "impact on a tree" since 1995. For this first reported year, the share of road users killed in such crashes was 30%. During the last 14 years, fatal accidents with road users killed on rural roads (except the Autobahn) after impacts on a tree declined by 60% from 1,737 (year 1995) to 696 (year 2008). But this is more or less in line with the general evolution of vehicle and traffic safety in Germany. For Germany as a whole the accident statistics do not show a reduction for "treer crashes" which is clearly more than the average for all accidents. But, as shown with the paper, there are different evolutions in the several German States. In public awareness the topic "tree impacts" is mostly associated with the situation in Germany after the reunification. At that time a lot of road users were killed on the avenues in the so called "new countries". The fact that "tree impacts" are still a big share within the figure of killed road users seems to be little-known. Using updated information coming from the official statistics and in-depth-studies, accident researchers can identify a big potential for further improvements of traffic safety on the associated district roads, state roads and federal highways. There is still a need to analyse more details of the accident occurrence with impacts on trees to generate new and updated findings on the current limits and potentials of measures to improve vehicle and traffic safety. To make further efforts in reducing the figures of victims of "tree impacts" the intensification of well-known conventional solutions " for example implementation of guard rails and reduction of speed - is an option. Measures related to vehicle safety technology especially in the field of primary (active) safety will have additional benefit within the physically imposed limits. With this background it can be seen that the subject "tree impacts" should be analysed with a holistic approach taking into account the entire system of driver, vehicle, road, the environment and a social consensus as well.
It is well known that motorcycle riding is fascinating but quite more dangerous than for example car driving. In 2006, 5,091 persons were killed as victims of crashes occurring on public roads in Germany. 52% (2,683) were car occupants, 16% (793) motorcycle riders, 14% (711) pedestrians, 10% (486) bicycle riders, 5% (235) commercial vehicle occupants, 2% (107) riders of smaller powered two-wheelers, called "Mofa, Moped and Mokick". This shows that motorcycle riders recently are the second largest group of killed traffic participants in Germany. Latest information coming from the Federal Statistics predict for the year 2007 the figure of 4,958 killed road victims in total. This would be again a successful reduction (-133 killed persons or "2.6% compared to the year 2006). But the news coming from the Federal Statistics during the year 2007 and at the begin of 2008 did not always tell the same positive story. It is questioned whether the positive trend of substantially reduced figures of killed road user year by year will longer continue for Germany. That means it could be impossible to reach the ambitious target, set by the European Commission, to cut in half the figure of killed road users until the year 2010 " compared to the figure for the year 2001. It was reported that the group of 45 to 49 years old traffic participants (all traffic modes) is conspicuous with an increase of 30% up to 297 killed road users in total from January to August 2007. This increase can be ascribed in particular by an increase of killed motorcycle riders within this age group. Due to mild weather conditions in Germany in 2007 the season for motorcycle riding began relatively early and this may be a main reason for the increase of the figure of killed motorcycle riders by 16% from January to August 2007. With this background the accident occurrence of motorcycles became more and more essential. As part of the actual discussion about historical trends, recent emphases, causes and relevant structures of the events of motorcycle crashes it is evident, to have latest and carefully updated figures coming from both the Federal Statistics and In-depth studies. The paper will give a contribution to this using the German Federal Statistics and in-depth studies, for example GIDAS. Additional data coming from the DEKRA Motorcycle Accident Database as well as from literature are considered, too. The paper will help to describe the current situation of the accident involvement of motorcycles in Germany.
Side impacts, both nearside and farside, have been indicated by research to be responsible for a large proportion of serious injuries from road crashes. This study aimed to compare and contrast the characteristics of nearside and farside crashes in Australia, Germany and the U.S., using the ANCIS, GIDAS and NASS/CDS in-depth-databases, in order to establish the impact and injury severity associated with these crashes, and the types of injuries sustained. The analyses revealed some interesting similarities, as well as differences, between both nearside and farside crashes, and the emergent trends between the three investigated countries. More specifically, it was indicated that whilst the severity of injury sustained in nearside crashes was slightly greater overall than that found for farside crashes, careful consideration of struck and nonstruck side occupants must be made when considering aspects such as vehicle design and occupant protection.
Bicyclists are minimally or unprotected road users. Their vulnerability results in a high injury risk despite their relatively low own speed. However, the actual injury situation of bicyclists has not been investigated very well so far. The purpose of this study was to analyze the actual injury situation of bicyclists in Germany to create a basis for effective preventive measures. Technical and medical data were prospectively collected shortly after the accident at the accident scenes and medical institutions providing care for the injured. Data of injured bicyclists from 1985 to 2003 were analyzed for the following parameters: collision opponent, collision type, collision speed (km/h), Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS), Maximum AIS (MAIS), incidence of polytrauma (Injury Severity Score >16), incidence of death (death before end of first hospital stay). 4,264 injured bicyclists were included. 55% were male and 45% female. The age was grouped to preschool age in 0.9%, 6 to 12 years in 10.8%, 13 to 17 years in 10.4%, 18 to 64 years in 64.7%, and over 64 years in 13.2%. The MAIS was 1 in 78.8%, 2 in 17.0%, 3 in 3.0%, 4 in 0.6%, 5 in 0.4%, and 6 in 0.2%. The incidence of polytrauma was 0.9%, and the incidence of death was 0.5%. The incidence of injuries to different body regions was as follows: head, 47.8%; neck, 5.2%, thorax, 21%; upper extremities, 46.3%; abdomen, 5.8%; pelvis, 11.5%, lower extremities, 62.1%. The accident location was urban in 95.2%, and rural in 4.8%. The accidents happened during daylight in 82.4%, during night in 12.2%, and during dawn/dusk in 5.3%. The road situation was as follows: straight, 27.3%; bend, 3.0%; junction, 32.0%; crossing, 26.4%; gate, 5.9%; others, 5.4%. The collision opponents were cars in 65.8%, trucks in 7.2%, bicycles in 7.4%, standing objects in 8.8%, multiple objects in 4.3%, and others in 6.5%. The collision speed was grouped <31 in 77.9%, 31-50 in 4.9%, 51-70 in 3.7%, and >70 in 1.5%. The helmet use rate was 1.5%. 68% of the registered head injuries were located in the effective helmet protection area. In bicyclists, head and extremities are at high risk for injuries. The helmet use rate is unsatisfactorily low. Remarkably, two thirds of the head injuries could have been prevented by helmets. Accidents are concentrated to crossings, junctions and gates. A significant lower mean injury severity was observed in victims using separate bicycle lanes. These results do strongly support the extension or addition of bicycle lanes and their consequent use. However, the lanes are frequently interrupted at crossings and junctions. This emphasizes also the important endangering of bicyclists coming from crossings, junctions and gates, i.e. all situations in which contact of bicyclists to motorized vehicles is possible. Redesigning junctions and bicycle traffic lanes to minimize the possibility of this dangerous contact would be preventive measures. A more consequent helmet use and use and an extension of bicycle paths for a better separation of bicyclists and motorized vehicle would be simple but very effective preventive measures.
Data concerning accidents involving personal injury which have been collected in the context of in-depth investigations on scene in the Hannover area since 1973 and in the Dresden area since 1999 represent an important basis for empirical traffic safety research. At national and international level various analyses and comparisons are carried out on the basis of "in-depth data" from the above mentioned investigations. In-depth data play a decisive role e.g. within the validation of EuroNCAP results on secondary safety (crashworthiness) of individual passenger car models. Thus, statistically sound methods of data analysis and population parameter estimation are of high importance. Since the 1st of August 1984 the "in-depth investigations on scene" in the Hannover area have been carried out according to a sampling plan developed by HAUTZINGER in the context of a research project on behalf of BASt. In the meantime a second region of in-depth investigation on scene was added with surveys in Dresden and the surrounding area. Internationally, the acronym GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study) is commonly used for the two above mentioned surveys. The objective of a current research project (topic of this contribution) is, among other things, to examine and adjust the previous weighting and expansion method for the two regional accident investigations to the current general conditions.
In the context of this study, different data sources for accident research were examined regarding their possible data access and evaluated concerning the individual quality and extent of the data. Analyses of accidents require detailed and comprehensive information in particular concerning vehicle damages, injury patterns and descriptions of the accident sequence. The police documentation supplies the basic accident statistics and is amended in the context of the forensic treatment by further information, e.g. by medical and technical appraisals and witness questionings. As a new approach to the data acquisition for the analysis of fatal traffic accidents, the information was made usable which was collected by the police and by the investigations of the public prosecutor. The best strategy for obtaining reliable, extensive and complete data consists of combining the information from these two sources: the very complete, but elementary statistic data of the Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Statistik (Lower Saxony State Authority of Statistics), based on the police documentation as well as the very extensive accident information resulting from the investigation documentation of the public prosecutor after conclusion of the procedure, the so-called Court Records. Of all 715 fatal traffic accidents, which happened in the year 2003 in the German State of Lower Saxony, 238 cases were selected by means of a statistically coincidental selective procedure based on a statistically representative manner (every third accident). These cases cover the investigation documents of the 11 responsible public prosecutor- offices, which were requested and evaluated while preserving the data security. Of the 238 cases 202 cases were available, which were individually coded and stored in a data base using 160 variables. Thus a data base of a sample of representative data for fatal accidents in Lower Saxony was set up. The data base contains extensive information concerning general accident data (35 variables), concerning road and road surface data (30 variables), concerning vehicle-specific data (68 variables) as well as concerning personal and injury data (27 variables).
Immer wieder werden Straßenbaumaßnahmen geplant und realisiert, bei denen die Möglichkeiten der geltenden Technischen Regelwerke für eine verkehrssichere Gestaltung nicht ausgeschöpft werden. Zielsetzung des Forschungsvorhabens war es, Schulungsunterlagen zu entwickeln, die sowohl zur Qualifizierung von Sicherheitsauditoren als auch zur Weiterbildung von Planern geeignet sind. Die zu erstellenden Materialien sollen Planern und Auditoren das Erkennen von Defiziten sowie das Vermeiden von Planungsfehlern erleichtern. Neben verfügbaren Auditauswertungen Dritter und 315 von den Forschungsnehmern selbst erstellten Auditberichten wurden bestehende Schulungsunterlagen für Planer bzw. Sicherheitsauditoren auf ihren Umfang, ihre Inhalte und Konzepte hin ausgewertet. Die Festlegung der Schulungsmodule orientierte sich sowohl an den bereits in der Praxis angewendeten Curricula für die Auditorenausbildung als auch an der durchgeführten Auswertung vorhandener Auditberichte sowie der Analyse vorliegender Schulungsunterlagen. Die Schulungsmodule und deren Inhalte wurden im Arbeitsausschuss Sicherheitsaudit von Straßen vorgestellt und diskutiert. Sie sind bereits im Anhang 1 des im Druck befindlichen Merkblatts für die Ausbildung und Zertifizierung der Sicherheitsauditoren von Straßen (MAZS 2008) aufgenommen. Für die festgestellten Defizite der relevanten Entwurfselemente wurden auf Grundlage der Entwurfsregelwerke jeweils die sicherheitsrelevanten Aussagen und Entwurfslösungen herausgearbeitet und zugeordnet. Im Ergebnis wurde eine Material- und Beispielsammlung erstellt, die in den Schulungsunterlagen zu jedem Grundlagen- und Thematischen Modul auch entsprechende Beispielsequenzen zu jedem Modul beinhaltet. Diese sehr umfangreichen Schulungsunterlagen (Kap. 3) sind dem Bericht als DVD beigefuegt.
Um die zukünftige Entwicklung von Fahrzeugen mit alternativem Antrieb, z.B. Hybrid-, Elektro- und Brennstoffzellenfahrzeuge, in Deutschland verfolgen und analysieren zu können, hatte die Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt) im Jahr 2010 die Einrichtung einer langfristigen Beobachtung des Fahrzeugmarktes und einer konzentrierten Beobachtung des Unfallgeschehens initiiert, mit den Zielen, die tatsächliche Umsetzung des technologischen Fortschritts in marktgängige Produkte zu verfolgen, frühzeitig genaue Kenntnis über die sich der technologischen Entwicklung anschließenden tatsächlichen Marktentwicklung zu gewinnen, und mögliche Fehlentwicklungen - insbesondere mit Blick auf die Verkehrssicherheit zeitnah zu identifizieren. Auf Basis der bisherigen Marktentwicklung ist die Analyse des Unfallgeschehens naturgemäß noch wenig aussagekräftig. Die deutliche Zunahme der Unfallbeteiligung von Hybridfahrzeugen um 95% von 2007 bis 2010 wird durch einen Bestandsanstieg von 117% in diesem Zeitraum relativiert und deutet daher eher auf ein unterdurchschnittliches Risiko, wobei keine Informationen über die durchschnittliche Fahrleistung in die Interpretationen einbezogen werden können. Der relativ hohe Anteil von Innerortsunfällen ist vor allem vor dem Hintergrund der Nutzung der Fahrzeuge zu interpretieren.
Der Vorschlag, dass alle Kraftfahrzeuge auch am Tag mit Licht fahren sollen, wird seit vielen Jahren national und international diskutiert. Aufgrund dessen hat das Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau- und Wohnungswesen die Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen beauftragt, die Auswirkungen des Fahrens mit Licht am Tag auf die Straßenverkehrssicherheit in Deutschland im Rahmen eines Forschungsprojektes genauer zu untersuchen. Auf der Basis einer Bewertung der internationalen Literatur zur Wirksamkeit des Fahrens mit Licht am Tag kommt die BASt zu dem Ergebnis, dass bei obligatorischer Einführung dieser Verkehrssicherheitsmaßnahme in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland eine deutliche Verbesserung der Verkehrssicherheit erwartet werden kann. Die Unfallrückgänge liegen in einer Größenordnung von über 3%. Die Befürchtung, dass sich demgegenüber Nachteile für schwächere Verkehrsteilnehmer, insbesondere Motorradfahrer, ergeben und deren Unfallhäufigkeit steigt, konnte nicht erhärtet werden. Die obligatorische Einführung des Fahrens mit Licht am Tag ist unter gesamtwirtschaftlichen Gesichtspunkten auch effizient. Den zu erwartenden Sicherheitsnutzen in Höhe von umgerechnet 1 Mrd. € je Jahr stehen Kosten in Folge des zunehmenden Kraftstoffverbrauchs und der damit verbundenen Emissionen in Höhe von 630 Mio. € (ungünstigster Fall: Fahren mit Abblendlicht) gegenüber. Auf lange Sicht sinken mit speziellen Tagfahrleuchten diese Kosten auf 150 Mio. € (Tagfahrleuchten in Glühlampentechnik) oder sogar nur 60 Millionen Euro (Tagfahrleuchten in LED-Technik). Es wird deshalb empfohlen, - für Neufahrzeuge eine Ausrüstung mit Tagfahrleuchten mit automatischer Aktivierung, gekoppelt an die Zündung, vorzuschreiben, - sowie einen Dämmerungsschalter zur automatischen Einschaltung des Abblendlichts obligatorisch einzuführen. Um einen nachteiligen Sicherheitseffekt durch die Durchmischung mit beleuchteten und unbeleuchteten Fahrzeugen zu vermeiden, ist für Altfahrzeuge ohne spezielle Tagfahrleuchten das Fahren mit Licht am Tag ganzjährig auf dem gesamten Straßennetz dringend zu empfehlen. Die Empfehlung für den bestehenden Kraftfahrzeugbestand sollte spätestens zum Zeitpunkt der Einführung der Ausstattungsvorschrift für die Neufahrzeuge ausgesprochen werden.
Ziel des Forschungsprojektes war die quantitative Vorausschätzung des Straßenverkehrsunfallgeschehens der Jahre 2015 und 2020 in Deutschland mit Hilfe eines eigens entwickelten Prognoseverfahrens. Das Verfahren sollte eine größtmögliche Differenzierung des zukünftigen Unfallgeschehens nach Schweregrad, Art der Verkehrsbeteiligung und Alter der Verkehrsteilnehmer erlauben. Das Modell sollte grundsätzlich in der Lage sein, Ursache - Wirkungszusammenhänge differenzierter als in herkömmlichen Ansätzen der Zeitreihenanalyse und deren Trendfortschreibung abzubilden. Den Prognosehorizont bilden die Jahre 2015 und 2020. Im Rahmen des vorliegenden Projekts erfolgte für Deutschland erstmals eine Prognose der Unfall- und Verunglücktenzahlen über eine Risikoanalyse maßgebender Unfallkonstellationen. Dabei wurde sowohl nach Ortslagen, Unfallbeteiligten und Alter der Verkehrsteilnehmer unterschieden. Mit Hilfe des vorgestellten Prognosemodells lässt sich der künftige Grad der Straßenverkehrssicherheit differenziert beurteilen. Auswirkungen der sich ändernden Rahmenbedingungen auf das Unfallgeschehen werden sowohl auf der Ebene der Unfallentstehung als auch auf der Ebene der Unfallschwere berücksichtigt. Dabei kann insbesondere der Einfluss aus Demografie und sich verändernder Zugangsvoraussetzungen zu Verkehrsmitteln auf das Unfallgeschehen abgebildet werden. Der vorgestellte erste Entwicklungsstand des Modells bietet daher bereits sehr gute Möglichkeiten, Wirkungsanalysen bei veränderten Einflussgrößen durchzuführen. Das Unfallprognosemodell wurde modular aufgebaut. Dadurch konnte eine logische und hierarchische Modellstruktur realisiert werden. In der Folge werden die einzelnen Module im Gesamtmodell sequentiell durchlaufen, sind in sich geschlossen und folgen eigenen Berechnungsvorschriften. Eine Umsetzung des Modells erfolgte auf Basis verknüpfter Excel-Dateien mit Hilfe von VBA-Makros. Hierbei wurde auf eine stark getrennte Struktur der einzelnen Berechnungsschritte Wert gelegt, um die einzelnen Dateien übersichtlich und nachvollziehbar zu gestalten. Gleichzeitig erfüllt das Modell die Forderung einer größtmöglichen Variabilität. So können sowohl geänderte Eingangsdaten zugrundegelegt werden als auch die Auswahl der differenzierten Trendberechnung beliebig getroffen werden. Im Ergebnis ist auf Basis der getroffenen Annahmen, der historischen Entwicklung und der konstellationenfeinen Fortschreibung der Risikofaktoren ein deutlicher Rückgang der Unfall- und Verunglücktenzahlen in Deutschland für den Prognosezeitraum gegenüber 2006 zu erwarten. Bei den Unfällen mit Personenschaden ist bis 2020 mit einer Abnahme um nahezu 30 % zu rechnen, bei den Verunglückten kann von einer Reduzierung um 13 % ausgegangen werden. Die Zahl getöteter Personen sinkt dabei voraussichtlich von ca. 5.100 Personen (2006) auf 2.700 Personen (2020). In Bezug auf die Schwerverletzten ist im gleichen Zeitraum mit einem Rückgang um ca. 33.000 Personen zu rechnen (2006: 74.500 Personen). Ebenso sinkt gegenüber dem Analysejahr 2006 die Anzahl Leichtverletzter um etwa 6 % auf etwa 326.000 Personen. Die Rückgänge der Verunglücktenzahlen liegen zwischen 2006 und 2015 sowie zwischen 2015 und 2020 zahlenmäßig auf einem vergleichbaren Niveau (55.000 bzw. 58.000 V). Somit wird etwa die Hälfte der Gesamtrückgänge im Prognosezeitraum allein in den letzten fünf Jahren der insgesamt fünfzehnjährigen Zeitspanne erreicht.