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Die Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt) bringt zum Ende jeden Jahres eine Prognose der Unfall- und Verunglücktenzahlen des noch laufenden Jahres heraus, um so über die Entwicklung der Verkehrssicherheit in Deutschland Bilanz ziehen zu können. Dabei wird das Unfallgeschehen nach dem Schweregrad der Konsequenzen, der Ortslage sowie Alter und Art der Verkehrsbeteiligung der Verunglückten in 27 Zeitreihen unterteilt. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt sind die Daten lediglich für die ersten acht oder neun Monate erhältlich. Um Bilanz zu ziehen, werden die Anzahlen der letzten drei oder vier Monate prognostiziert. Gesamtziel des hier beschriebenen Forschungsvorhabens ist die Optimierung der jährlichen Unfallprognosen durch Anwendung von strukturellen Zeitreihenmodellen, bei denen die Vorhersagen aus dem Trend der vorliegenden Monate, und der Dynamik der vorhergehenden Jahre abgeleitet werden. Um dem Einfluss der Witterungsverhältnisse Rechnung zu tragen, werden dabei meteorologische Variablen in das Vorhersagemodell aufgenommen. Um die Modelle zu testen, werden die endgültigen Daten der letzten 15 Jahre jeweils aus den vorläufigen Daten der ersten Monate vorhergesagt und mit den tatsächlich beobachteten endgültigen Unfall- und Verunglücktenzahlen verglichen. Die Resultate zeigen, dass im Vergleich zu den bisherigen Vorhersagen mithilfe der hier vorgestellten Modelle die Vorhersagen für 25 der 27 Reihen präziser werden. Lediglich zwei Reihen zeigen einen leichten Anstieg des Vorhersagefehlers. Beim Vergleich von Modellen mit und ohne meteorologischen Variablen zeigt sich, dass 23 der 27 Reihen besser vorhergesagt werden können, wenn man das Wetter berücksichtigt. Neben der verbesserten Vorhersage ermöglicht die Aufnahme der Wettervariablen auch eine Einschätzung, wie groß der Einfluss der Witterungsgegebenheiten auf das Unfallgeschehen ist. Es zeigt sich also, dass die Anwendung von strukturellen Zeitreihenmodellen und die Berücksichtigung von meteorologischen Variablen zu einer deutlichen Verbesserung der Vorhersagegenauigkeit führen. Die Verbesserung der Vorhersagen durch die Aufnahme von Wettervariablen bestätigt nochmals den Einfluss der Witterungsumstände auf das Unfallgeschehen.
Car occupants have a high level of mortality in road accidents, since passenger cars are the prevalent mode of transport. In 2013, car occupant fatalities accounted for 45% of all road accident fatalities in the EU. The objective of this research is the analysis of basic road safety parameters related to car occupants in the European countries over a period of 10 years (2004-2013), through the exploitation of the EU CARE database with disaggregate data on road accidents. Data from the EU Injury Database for the period 2005 - 2008 are used to identify injury patterns, and additional insight into accident causation for car occupants is offered through the use of in-depth accident data from the EC SafetyNet project Accident Causation System (SNACS). The results of the analysis allow for a better understanding of the car occupants' safety situation in Europe, thus providing useful support to decision makers working for the improvement of road safety level in Europe.
Although the annual traffic accident statistics published by the national police is available in public, the detailed traffic accident data has not been released in Korea. Recently the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport recognized the importance of in-depth accident data to enhance road traffic safety and initiated a research project to establish a collection of the detailed accident data. The main objective of the project is a feasibility study to establish KIDAS (Korea In-Depth Accident Study). Within this project, three university hospitals which are located in mid-size cities have been selected to collect accident data. Annually, more than 500 cases of accidents have been collected from the in-patient's interviews and diagnosis. Unlike GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study), currently on-site investigation can"t be performed by the Korean police. The only available data is patient medical records, patient's description of accident circumstances and the damaged vehicle. Occasionally the police provide the accident investigation reports containing very brief information on accident causation and vehicle safety. In a first step, the concept of KIDAS is to adopt the format of iGLAD (Initiative for the Global Harmonization of Accident Data) for harmonization. Since the currently collected accident information is extremely limited compared with GIDAS, the other sources of data and calculations such as KNCAP vehicle data, pc-crash simulations, vehicle registration information, insurance company data are utilized to complete the iGLAD template. Results from KIDAS_iGLAD and the cases of assessment of active safety devices such as AEBS, ESC, and LDWS will be evaluated.
Die Zielsetzung der Arbeit bestand darin, Erkenntnisse über das "Dunkelfeld" beziehungsweise die "Unfalldunkelziffer" der amtlichen Straßenverkehrsunfallstatistik in Deutschland zu gewinnen. Dazu wurde eine Datenerhebung in einem begrenzten Gebiet durchgeführt. Die Untersuchung sollte Hinweise ermöglichen über die Größe der Unfalldunkelziffer in Abhängigkeit von bestimmten Unfallmerkmalen sowie über die Struktur des Dunkelfeldes im Vergleich zur amtlichen Statistik. Als unterer Grenzwert für die Unfalldunkelziffer in der Pilotstudie wird ein Wert von 44 % angesehen. Die Untersuchung zeigt eine deutliche Abhängigkeit der Dunkelziffer von der Unfallschwere. Die Dunkelziffer liegt geringer bei Unfällen mit "ungeschützten" Unfallobjekten (Unfälle mit Fußgängern und Zweiradfahrern). Der Erfassungsgrad für Nachtunfälle ist größer als für Tagunfälle. Die Untersuchungsergebnisse zeigen insgesamt, dass die Struktur der amtlichen Statistik deutlich von der Struktur des Dunkelfeldes abweicht. Es wird die begründete Annahme ausgesprochen, dass die amtliche Verkehrsunfallstatistik unvollständig ist, wobei der Erfassungsgrad nicht einheitlich ist, sondern von verschiedenen Merkmalen (Unfallschwere, Unfallart, etc.) abhängt.
Im Rahmen des Forschungsprojektes wurden Hochrechnungen und Analysen zum Fahrzeug- und Führerscheinbesitz, zur Verkehrsteilnahme und realisierten Verkehrsnachfrage sowie zum Unfallrisiko in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland in bisher nicht gekannter Breite und Tiefe erstellt. Die Arbeit behandelt alle Teilgruppen der deutschen und ausländischen Wohnbevölkerung und alle wesentlichen Aspekte des Verkehrsverhaltens und Unfallrisikos im nah- und Fernverkehr unter Einbeziehung sämtlicher Arten der Verkehrsbeteiligung. Neben einem detaillierteren Forschungsbericht, in welchem Methodik und Ergebnisse der Studie vorgestellt werden, liegt zusätzlich eine umfassende Tabellendokumentation vor, welche die vielfältigen Hochrechnungsergebnisse in tiefer sachlicher und zeitlicher Gliederung enthält. Das Werk beinhaltet neben einer Strukturbeschreibung des Verkehrs- und Unfallgeschehens in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland auch eine detaillierte Beurteilung der Veränderungen, die sich in diesem Bereich zwischen Mitte der siebziger und Mitte der achziger Jahre vollzogen haben. Im Rahmen des Forschungsprojekts wurden auch einige wesentliche methodische Fortschritte erzielt. So wurden vor allem die Stichproben- und Hochrechnungsverfahren der Verkehrsstatistik ganz entscheidend verbessert. Die erzielten Fortschritte werden in einem umfangreichen Methodenanhang zum Forschungsbericht ausführlich beschrieben. Insgesamt liegt mit der Studie erstmals ein statistisches Gesamtbild von Verkehrsmobilität und Unfallrisiko in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland vor.
Im Rahmen einer schriftlichen Befragung konnten von rund 15.000 Schülern der Klassen 6, 8 und 10 aus den vier Landkreisen Ammerland, Holzminden, Northeim und Wesermarsch sowie aus den Städten Celle und Hannover Daten zur Verkehrs- und Unfallbeteiligung dieser Personengruppe erhoben werden. Die Befragung wurde im Schuljahr 1987/88 durchgeführt. Aufgrund des hohen Rücklaufs von 86,2 % aller angeschriebenen Schüler ergibt sich ein Befragungsumfang von 6,9 % aller Schüler der Klassen 6,8 und 10 in Niedersachsen. Die Verteilung der befragten Schüler auf die verschiedenen Schulformen spiegelt die niedersächsische Schullandschaft im Bereich der Sekundarstufe I gut wieder. Hinsichtlich der Unfallbeteiligung der Schüler wurde ermittelt, dass die amtlichen Zahlen über Verkehrsunfälle (der Polizei und der Unfallversicherungsträger) deutlich niedriger liegen als die Zahlen der von den Schülern genannten Unfälle. Ferner ist festzustellen, dass die Polizei in den städtischen Regionen wesentlich häufiger zur Unfallaufnahme hinzugezogen wird, als in den ländlich geprägten Regionen. Bezüglich der Verkehrsbeteiligung der befragten Schüler ist festzuhalten, dass sowohl die Dauer der Verkehrsbeteiligung als noch stärker die Art - das heißt die Verkehrsmittelwahl - durch das Alter, das Geschlecht, die besuchte Schulform und auch durch regionale Faktoren bestimmt werden. Diese Tatsache führte zu dem Ergebnis, dass über die Untersuchungsregionen hinausgehende generelle Aussagen zur Verkehrs- und Unfallbeteiligung kaum zu treffen seien. Effektive Unfallanalysen bedürfen der kleinräumigen Betrachtungsweise.
Die laufenden Erhebungen am Unfallort im Raum Hannover werden seit 1984 nach einem theoretisch fundierten Stichprobenverfahren durchgeführt. Da die Stichprobe nicht "selbstgewichtend" (gleiche Erfassungschancen für alle Unfälle) ist, müssen in die Datenauswertung Gewichtungsfaktoren einbezogen werden. Die Notwendigkeit der Gewichtung resultiert einerseits direkt aus dem Erhebungsdesign und andererseits aus verfahrensbedingten Verzerrungen, durch welche vor allem schwere Unfälle in der Stichprobe überrepräsentiert sind. Es zeigt sich, dass durch eine Anpassung der gemeinsamen Verteilung der Merkmale Unfallschwere, Tageszeit und Ortslage an die entsprechende Verteilung der amtlichen Unfallstatistik für das Erhebungsgebiet eine wesentliche Verzerrungsreduktion und Genauigkeitsverbesserung bei den meisten Variablen erreicht werden kann. Nach dem Konzept der replikativen Stichproben lassen sich auch approximative Konfidenzintervalle für die zu schätzenden statistischen Maßzahlen (zum Beispiel Mittelwerte) berechnen. Dem Problem der Übertragbarkeit der Ergebnisse auf die Bundesrepublik Deutschland insgesamt wird breiter Raum gewidmet. Im Rahmen einer umfangreichen Fallstudie werden die vorgeschlagenen Auswertungs- und Hochrechnungsverfahren an praktischen Beispielen demonstriert.
The declining trend since 1991 in the number of killed people was broken in 2011 when overall 4 009 people died in traffic accidents in Germany. The question arises if there is a stagnating trend of fatalities in Germany in future? By breaking down the accidents with casualties towards a monthly view one can see a decreasing trend of fatalities in the warmer months especially since 2009. When comparing against winter months higher deviations are observed. In December 2011 an increase of 191 traffic deaths were registered (181 in 2010 compared to 372 in 2011). Further analyses of different accident influences were evaluated and their possibility of drastic change from one year to the other was determined. As seen weather- and environmental conditions are one of the major contributing factors and are one of the causes for the increased number of fatalities. To support the underlying assumption a model had been created to calculate the number of traffic deaths on a daily basis approach. As an input, road conditions projected through weather parameters and also different driving behaviors on weekdays or holidays were used. As a result, estimates of daily fatality with up to 75% precision can be achieved out of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 data. Further on it shows that weather and street conditions have a high influence on the overall resulting number of traffic accidents with casualties, and especially to the number of fatalities. Hence it is estimated that approximately 3 300 people were killed in traffic accidents in Germany in 2013 which would be again a reduction of another 13% compared to 2012. Therefore an answer to the question will be that the decreasing trend in traffic fatalities in Germany somehow is not broken when environmental conditions are included in national statistics. Their effects will become more visible in future accident statistics and it is estimated variances of 5% to 8% of the annual number of traffic fatalities in Germany will be seen.
India is one of the leading countries reporting highest road accidents & related injuries. TMARG (Tata Motors Accident Research Group) has been recording crashes in association with M/s. Lokamanya Medical Foundation since 2011 with M/s, Amandeep Hospitals since Aug 2013. This study has highlighted some accident types not discussed extensively in literature. Trucks to Truck impacts " Cabin interaction with overhanging loadbody structures and Offset underside impacts for passenger vehicles are seen in significant numbers. The paper discusses these in more detail including severity.
The paper gives an overview of the recent (mostly 2012) figures of killed bus/coach occupants (drivers and passengers) in 27 Member States of the European Union as reported by CARE. The Evolution of the figures of bus/coach occupants killed in road accidents urban, rural without motorway and on motorways from 1991 to 2010 in 15 Member States of the EU supplements this information. More detailed are the figures reported for Germany by the Federal Statistics. The paper displays long-term evaluations (1957 to 2012) for killed, seriously and slightly injured occupants in all kinds of buses/coaches. Midterm evaluations (1995 to 2012) of the figures of fatalities and casualties are displayed for different busses according to their identification of road using as coaches, urban buses, school buses, trolley buses and "other buses". To be able to compare the evolutions of the safety of vehicle occupants it is customary to use different risk indicators. Calculations and illustrations for three often used indicators with their development over time are given: fatalities, seriously injured and slightly injured per 100,000 vehicles registered, per 1 billion (109) vehicle-kilometres travelled and per 1 billion (109) person-kilometres. These indicators are shown for occupants of cars, goods vehicles and buses/coaches. For the period from 1957 until 2012 it is obvious, that for all three vehicle categories analysed there was a clear long-term trend towards more occupant safety in terms of casualties per vehicles registered and per vehicle mileage. This was most significant for car occupants but it can be seen for bus/coach occupants and goodsvehicle occupants as well. Figures of killed occupants and of casualties related to person-kilometres are calculated and displayed for the shorter period 1995 to 2012. Here it becomes obvious that the bus/coach is still the safest mode of transport for the occupants of road vehicles. Graphs for the casualty risk indices still show significantly higher risks for car occupants despite the corresponding curve moved sustainable downwards. It is remarkable, that the risks of being killed or injured for the occupants of urban buses is growing whereas the corresponding risk for the occupants of coaches in line traffic tends downwards. The article ends with a short comparison and discussion of the risk indicators which are actually published for the occupants (driver and passengers) of cars and the passengers of buses/coaches, railroads, trams and airplanes. The interpretation of such information depends on the perception and it seems that for a complete view not only one indicator should be used and the evolutions of the indicator values during longer periods (as displayed with examples in the paper) should also be taken into account.
While it is important to track trends in the number of road accidents in different countries using national statistics, there is a need for data with more detailed information, so called in-depth accident data. For this reason, several accident data projects emerged worldwide in recent years. However, also different data standards were established and so comparative analysis of international in-depth data has been very hard to conduct, so far. This is why the project iGLAD (Initiative for the Global Harmonization of Accident Data) was established and created the prerequisites for building up a standardized dataset out of the common denominator of different in-depth accident databases from Europe, USA and Asia. In the first phase, the project received funding from ACEA to compile an initial database. To accomplish this, a suitable data scheme has been defined, a pilot study has been conducted as proof of concept and the recoding of the first common data base has been initiated. Also, to prepare the project for its self-supporting continuation in the next years, a business model has been developed. This paper reports the history and status of the project, the current challenges and the creation of a capable consortium to maintain the data. In mid-2014, the initial database containing 1550 cases from 10 different countries will be completed and a first detailed view on this data will be possible.
Beijing, mit 11,4 Millionen Einwohnern, 563.690 Kraftfahrzeugen einschließlich der motorisierten Zweiräder aller Art, 7,4 Millionen Fahrrädern, 5.213 Bussen und einer U-Bahn-Linie, ist nicht nur eine alte, traditionsreiche Kaiserstadt im Herzen Chinas, sondern auch eine aufstrebende, geschäftige Millionenstadt Asiens, die von Tag zu Tag, dem wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung folgend, sich städtebaulich und verkehrlich wandelt. Trotz vielfältiger Umweltprobleme wird der Zuwachs an Mobilität positiv bewertet; dem tragen die Verantwortlichen Rechnung durch Ausbau der Infrastruktur sowohl des ÖPNV als auch des Individualverkehrs. Der vorliegende Artikel beschäftigt sich mit den Entwicklungen des Stadtverkehrs und vermittelt eine detaillierte Analyse des Unfallgeschehens; heute stirbt in Beijing täglich durchschnittlich ein Mensch im Straßenverkehr.
Bei Straßenverkehrsunfällen werden volkswirtschaftliche Ressourcen vernichtet und die Leistungsfähigkeit des Wirtschaftssystems entsprechend beeinträchtigt. Die Bewertung der volkswirtschaftlichen Schäden ist unerlässlich, um Maßnahmen zur Verringerung von Straßenverkehrsunfällen beurteilen zu können. Das Bewertungsverfahren zur Ermittlung der volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten durch Straßenverkehrsunfälle wurde in den letzten Jahren sowohl für Personen- als auch für Sachschäden überarbeitet. Mit dem neuen Verfahren wurde das Unfallgeschehen von 1995 bis 1998 bewertet. Die Entwicklung der Unfallkosten zeigt, dass eine erfolgreiche Verkehrssicherheitspolitik zu einer erheblichen Kostenentlastung der Volkswirtschaft und entsprechender Steigerung der Lebensqualität beitragen kann. Allein im betrachteten Zeitraum von 4 Jahren haben Straßenverkehrsunfälle volkswirtschaftliche Kosten in Höhe von fast 280 Milliarden DM verursacht. Diese Kosten sind ein Beleg dafür, dass die Verbesserung der Verkehrssicherheit eine verkehrspolitische Daueraufgabe ersten Ranges bleibt. Gleichzeitig wurden nach Ortslagen differenzierte Unfallkostensätze ermittelt, die als Eingangsdaten für gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirtschaftlichkeitsanalysen von Straßenverkehrsmaßnahmen - zum Beispiel nach den "Empfehlungen für Wirtschaftlichkeitsuntersuchungen von Straßen" (EWS 97) - dienen.
Im Rahmen seiner Tätigkeit hat sich der Arbeitskreis "Unterhaltungs- und Betriebsdienst" der Forschungsgesellschaft für Straßen- und Verkehrswesen in den letzten Jahren wieder verstärkt dem Thema der von Dritten verursachten Unfälle mit Beteiligung des Unterhaltungs- und Betriebsdienstes auf Autobahnen gewidmet. Mit Hilfe der Erkenntnisse aus früheren Untersuchungen und der Auswertung von neueren Unfalldaten aus einer schweizerischen und einigen deutschen Straßenbauverwaltungen sollten vermutete Tendenzen überprüft und vorhandene Entwicklungen aufgezeigt werden. Eine Zunahme von Unfällen mit Personenschaden in den letzten Jahren war nicht zu erkennen, eher eine Stagnation der Unfallzahlen trotz steigendem Verkehrsaufkommens. Eine Betrachtung des individuellen Todesfallrisikos des Straßenbetriebsdienstpersonals, welches um ein Vielfaches größer ist als das anderer Berufsgruppen oder das der Verkehrsteilnehmer, zeigt allerdings die grundlegende Bedeutung der Problematik. In den Auswertungen lassen sich eine Reihe von häufig auftretenden Unfallmustern sowie einige Zusammenhänge mit dem Verkehrsgeschehen erkennen und daraus folgenden Ansätze zur Unfallvermeidung ableiten. Zukünftig sollen mit den Ergebnissen eine Sensibilisierung der Öffentlichkeit für die Gefährdung des Straßenbetriebspersonals erreicht und in weiteren Untersuchungen Möglichkeiten für eine Verbesserung der Absicherung von Arbeitsstellen erarbeitet werden.
Analysis of the accident scenario of powered two-wheelers on the basis of real-world accidents
(2013)
For the first time since 20 years the German national statistics of traffic accidents revealed an increasing number of fatalities and seriously injured persons in 2011. This negative development was especially caused by increasing numbers in all groups of vulnerable road users (VRU). Furthermore, the comparison of fatality reduction rates between several categories of road users shows that persons on motorcycles show the worst performance over years. Although every second fatality in German traffic accidents is still a car occupant, users of PTW make up more than 20% in the meantime. Assuming further improvements in the field of occupant protection this trend will continue. For that reason, a study on the basis of real-world accidents was conducted to describe the accident scenario involving motorcycles and to identify the reasons of the above-described fact. Approximately 1.800 motorcycle accidents out of GIDAS database were used for the analyses. The first part of the study deals with the question how representative the GIDAS database is for the German motorcycle accident scenario. Afterwards, detailed descriptive statistics on motorcycle accidents were presented considering numerous parameters about the accident scene, environmental influences, vehicle information, individual characteristics, interview data, injury severity and injury causation. One important point is the identification of the most frequent critical situations that are typical for motorcycle accidents. Furthermore, a special focus was on accident causation. Finally, conspicuous facts out of the analysis are emphasized. All in all, the study gives a comprehensive overview about the German motorcycle accident scenario. One the one hand, the use of weighted GIDAS data allows representative and robust statements on the basis of large case numbers; on the other hand highly detailed conclusions can be drawn. The results of the study help to understand the particularities of motorcycle accidents and provide approaches for further improvements in the field of PTW safety.
It is very important for Automotive OEMs to get feedback on their product performance on real roads for continuous improvement. Every OEM has a way of collecting this feedback for various performance parameters. Systematic accident research is a way to generate the information related to safety performance of the vehicle. In India, while there is a large amount of data related to the accidents, it is found this data is aimed at understanding the gross statistics and not directly useful for technology development. This paper explains learnings from a pilot study carried out in collaboration with an Emergency Medical Services provider on one of the expressways (motorways). This pilot study has resulted in development of working model that could now be scaled up at for wider application. The paper also presents some of the important observations based on the data collected.
Police records about traffic accidents like used by IRTAD (International Road Traffic and Accident Database) and CARE (Community Road Accident Database) do not represent all road injuries. For instance, road accidents of bicyclists without a counterpart are usually not reported. Furthermore, IRTAD-like data contains hardly any information on injury outcome and accident circumstances. This information gap leads to an under-representation of the safety concerns of the most vulnerable road users like children and the elderly both in accident research and safety promotion. Injury registration for the European Injury Database (IDB), in turn, combines details of accident causation with diagnostic information that can be used to assess injury severity and long term consequences. The IDB is collecting data from hospital emergency department patients and is being implemented in a growing number of countries. In this article IDB results on mode of transport and injury outcome are presented from a sample of nine EU member states.
The increasing economics in India has an enormous growth of its road traffic. As observed from official Indian accident statistics the number of road fatalities are one of the highest worldwide. In contrast to most industrialized nations they have an rapidly increasing trend. To come along with this trend it becomes more than essential to understand the traffic accident situation. The official Indian accident statistics gives a glimpse of only basic information. Therefore more detailed data is needed. By using In-depth accident data and officially representative statistics the current accident situation can be evaluated in India, if a suitable weighting methodology is considered. Hence in 2009/2010 a pilot study with the collaboration partner JP-Research India pvt. Ldt. was gathered in Tamil Nadu in south of India. In-depth accident investigations were done around the Coimbatore area on four highways. At first, the collected data is evaluated. Due to consequent and continuous further development based on the first approach a methodology similar to NASS/CDS/GES in the US and GIDAS in Germany was developed. Of course all relevant accident related parameters including pictures and severity information were collected. As a matter of fact based on scaled sketches and reconstruction benefit analyses can be done in order to analyze the accident scenery in India. As a first outcome influence from infrastructure, missing education and vehicle safety were identified as key parameters in order to reduce the number of accidents and casualties. To compare the accident situation against international standards an accident classification for left hand traffic was developed based on the German Insurance classification system. Looking into detail additional accident types were identified and added to create an Indian accident type catalogue. The positive results encouraged several OEMs to participate in this investigation and together with BOSCH a consortium was established in 2010/11. Within one year from beginning in May 2011 about 200 highway accidents were collected, reported and reconstructed using the new standard. Hence a first good overview of the accident situation is available for the Coimbatore Tamil Nadu area. The major target for establishing accident investigations is the extension towards other states of India and urban areas to achieve a better overview of the accident scenery. Therefore local and national authorities have to be embedded in order to strengthen the awareness against traffic safety.
Since 2008, the authors inspected fatal traffic accidents on the spot every year, with the cooperation of Toyota police station in Aichi pref. In the jurisdiction, numbers of fatal accidents were 18 in 2008, 12 in 2009, 14 accidents in 2010, and 16 in 2011. We here report the results of our analysis of information obtained by detailed inspection for those that occurred from 2008 to 2010. We focused on vehicle-to-pedestrian accidents, which accounted for about 45% of all accidents in 2008. Because many accidents occurred on residential roads not far from pedestrians" homes, it was revealed that the decrease of the collision speed by traffic calming such as humps and zone speed management, was highly effective. On the other hand, pedestrian detection technologies seemed to be also effective as a countermeasure on vehicle side. Every pedestrian position against a vehicle was clarified and TTC (Time to Collision) was calculated provisionally. Pedestrian accidents in intersections were also examined. Among the intersection pedestrian accidents within the jurisdiction, compared with the national average in Japan, the ratio of intersections without a signal and the ratio without a pedestrian crossing were high. According to the comparison of the Japanese traffic accident patterns between 2001 and 2008, pedestrian accidents during turning right and turning left did not decrease much. For elderly drivers, these accidents occurred very often. Finally, single vehicle accidents were analysed with the accident pattern analysis methods used above. There were high numbers of single vehicle accidents against object on single roads. Although fatal accidents against guardrails decreased, the numbers of fatal accidents against a utility pole and a sign pole were nearly constant. As for the impact with narrow width objects such as utility poles, the fatality rate was very high, and countermeasures of both road infrastructure and vehicles seem to be effective.
This study analyses no.39 cases in which n.41 motorcyclists were fatally injured, or 36% of total motorcycle fatalities in Northern Ireland between 2004 and 2010 (n.114). There were n.17 cases (43.6%) where the actions of another vehicle driver caused the collision, in thirteen of these cases the motorcycles had their lights switched on. The remaining n.22 collisions (56.4%) were due to the actions of the motorcyclist. In the approach to the collision scene, there were n.13 cases (31.7%) in which the approach was a right hand bend and in n.8 (19.5%) cases, the approach was a left hand bend. In the remaining n.18 (43.9%) cases, the approach was a straight road. Of the n.17 (41.4%) motorcycles that slid after falling, n.10 (24.4%) fell onto their right side and the remaining n.7 (17.1%) fell onto their left side. The information from this study identifies primary and contributory causes of motorcycle collisions.
The number of road accidents in Portugal has decreased significantly in the last decades, however, this tendency is not similar in all types of transportation. In the most recent years and by European standards, Portugal is still one of the leading countries concerning the number of fatalities in Powered Two Wheelers (PTW) accidents. To this effect, the in-depth investigation of PTW accidents is crucial and so, a thorough statistical analysis concerning the main factors influencing PTW riders injury severity accidents was undertaken regarding the 2007-2010 period in the National Road Safety Authority (ANSR) injured riders database using the software SPSS. In addition, to determine the importance of absent factors in the database analysis, such as velocity, a set of 53 real accidents involving PTW were also investigated and computationally reconstructed using the software PC-Crash. Lateral collisions between a motorcycle, its rider and the side of three different passenger cars were also simulated, varying the motorcycle impact angle and velocity in order to estimate the PTW deformation energy and the rider- injuries, as this accident configuration stands out in terms of frequency and even severity. The results of this detailed study are presented.
Supervision of the safety performance in public transport is one of the main tasks of the Federal Office of Transport (FOT) in Switzerland. Recently a three level system of safety indicators has been defined to cover all means of Swiss public transport. The safety indicators are fed by the FOT incident database since the year 2000. In cooperation with the Institute for Traffic Safety and Automation Engineering (iVA) at TU Braunschweig, Germany, FOT is developing a suitable methodology for the definition and evaluation of the safety targets in Swiss public transport. The methodology is applied for evaluation of safety indicators on a country level and for single transport companies. In a new approach the abovementioned methodology is applied to car incident data to develop an indicator based cross-modal safety measure.
With an ever rising human life expectancy the share of elderly people in society is constantly rising. This leads to the fact that at the same rate the share of people with age related diseases such as dementia and poor eyesight taking part in traffic will rise and therefore traffic accidents caused by this group of people due to the disease will play an ever greater role. This Situation will be among the future challenges of road safety work. At present this study displays specific characteristics of accidents caused by elderly car drivers (aged 65 or higher) based on the analysis of the German In-Depth Accident Study GIDAS. Herein almost 1000 elderly car drivers were identified as accident participants in the years 2008 to 2011. The focus of this study lies on identifying special types of accidents which are caused by elderly drivers and on characterizing these types with the information gathered on scene and by interviewing the participants. The main evidence analyzed is the knowledge about the accident locality, the trajectories of the participants as well as the reasons for the occurrence of the accidents. Furthermore personal information such as the personal condition before the accident and driving purposes is used to identify patterns of contributing circumstances for accidents caused by elderly traffic participants.
The GIDAS-investigation team of Dresden (VUFO) has documented more than 11.500 accidents since 1999. The documentation of the accident includes beside vehicle-, injury- and environmental-data very detailed reconstruction data. Within this accident investigation the VUFO began to record the skid resistance of the accident site in 2009. The measurements are divided in macro- and microroughness (Sand depth method and Portable Skid Resistance Tester-SRT-by Munro-Stanley London-©). Both methods are used to determine the skid resistance for more than 1000 passenger cars. The aim of the present study is to find out a relationship between the measured skid resistance, the road conditions and the friction coefficient, which is used to calculate the maximum accelerations and decelerations during a reconstruction of an accident. Basic approach to convert the SRT-value into the friction coefficient is the calculation of the theoretical absorbed energy of the spring rubber system of the swinging arm of lever. This absorbed energy is used to get the friction coefficient by using the equations for the work of friction. To consider the road-behavior, in correlation to the friction coefficient, the results will be merged with existing literature. Last step for this study will be a comparison between actual used friction coefficients all over the GIDAS-database and the theoretical results. The study shows, if it is possible to use the SRT-Measurement for the estimation of a friction coefficient for the reconstruction of a traffic accident. As expected, the GIDAS-Database and the additional measurement of the roughness of the road directly on the spot are an enormous useful dataset.
The main objective of EC CASPER research project is to reduce fatalities and injuries of children travelling in cars. Accidents involving children were investigated, modelling of human being and tools for dummies were advanced, a survey for the diagnosis of child safety was carried out and demands and applications were analysed. From the many research tasks of the CASPER project, the intention of this paper is to address the following: • In-depth investigation of accidents and accident reconstruction. These will provide important points for the injury risk curve, in order to improve it. Different accident investigation teams collected data from real road accidents, involving child car passengers, in five different European countries. Then, a selection of the most appropriate cases for the injury risk curve and the purposes of the project was made for an in-depth analysis. The final stage of this analysis was to conduct an accident reconstruction to validate the results obtained. The in-depth analysis included on-scene accident investigation, creating virtual simulations of the accident/possible reconstruction, and conducting the reconstruction. In the cases of successful reconstructions, new points were introduced to the injury risk curves. Accident reconstructions of selected cases were carried out in test laboratories as the next step following in-depth road accident investigation. These cases were reconstructed using similar child restraint systems (CRS) and the same type make and model as in the real accidents. Reconstructing real cases has several limitations, such as crash angle, cars" approximation paths and crash speed. However, a few changes and applications on the testing conditions were applied to reduce the limitations and improved the representations of the real accidents. After conducting the reconstructions, a comparison between the deformations of the cars on the real accident and the vehicles from the reconstructions was made. Additionally, a correlation between the data captured from the dummies and the injury data from the real accident was sought. This finalises an in-depth analysis of the accident, which will provide new relevant points to the injury risk curve. The CASPER project conducted a large research programme on child safety. On technical points, a promising research area is the developing injury risk curves as a result of in-depth accident investigations and reconstructions. This abstract was written whilst the project was not yet finished and final results are not yet known, but they will be available by the time of the conference. All the works and findings will not necessarily be integrated in the industrial versions of evaluation tools as the CASPER project is a research program.
Rear-end collisions are the most frequent same and opposite-direction crashes. Common causes include momentary inattention, inadequate speed or inadequate distance. While most rear-end collisions in urban traffic only result in vehicle damage or slight injuries, rear-end collisions outside built-up areas or on motorways usually cause fatal or serious injuries. Driver assistance systems that detect dangerous situations in the longitudinal vehicle direction are therefore an essential safety plus. In view of this, for ADAC, systems that alert drivers to dangerous situations and initiate autonomous braking complement ESC as one of the most important active safety features in modern vehicles. The aim of ADAC is to provide consumers with technical advice and competent information about the systems available on the market. Reliable comparative tests that are based on standardised test criteria may provide motorists with important information and help them make a buying decision. In addition, they raise consumer awareness of the systems and speed up their market penetration. The assessment must focus on as many aspects of effectiveness as possible and include not only autonomous braking but also collision warning and autonomous brake assist. The work of the ADAC accident research is the development of the testing scenarios with direct link to accident situations and the identification of useful test criteria for testing.
Introduction: Spine injuries pose a considerable risk to life and quality of life. The total number of road deaths in developed countries has markedly decreased, e.g. in Germany from over 20000 in 1970 to less than 4000 in 2010, but little is known how this is reflected in the burden of spine fractures of motor vehicle users. In this study, we aimed to show the actual incidence of spine injuries among drivers and front passengers and elucidate possible dependencies between crash mechanisms and types of injuries.
The objective of the study is to measure the risk of pedestrian and bicyclist in urban traffic through an analysis of real-world accident data. The kinematics and injury mechanisms for both pedestrian and bicyclists are investigated to find the correlation of injury risks with injury related parameters. For this purpose, firstly 338 cases are selected as a sample from an IVAC accident database based on the In-depth Investigation of Vehicle Accident in Changsha of China. A statistic measurement of the fatality and serious injury risks with respect to impact speed was carried out by logistic regression analysis. Secondly, 12 pedestrian and 12 bicyclist accidents were further selected for reconstruction with MADYMO program. A comparative analysis was conducted based on the results from accident analysis and computer reconstructions for the injury risk, head impact conditions and dynamic response of pedestrians and bicyclists. The results indicate that bicyclists suffered lower risks of severe injuries and fatalities compared with pedestrians. The risks of AIS 3+ injury and fatality are 50% for pedestrians at impact speeds of 53.2 km/h and 63.3 km/h, respectively, while that for bicyclists at 62.5 km/h and 71.1 km/h, respectively. The findings could have a contribution to get a better understanding of pedestrians" and bicyclists" exposures in urban traffic in China, and provide background knowledge to generate strategies for pedestrian protection.
From literature well-known analyzes on risks, hazards and causes of accidents of older drivers are amended by the present study in which a comparison of the specific features of accident causes of older car drivers (older than 60 years) and of younger car drivers (under 25 years) is conducted. Mainly the question is pursued if specific errors, mistakes and lapses are predominant in the two different age groups. The analysis system ACAS (Accident Causation Analysis System) used hereby consists of a sequential system of accident causation factors from the human, the technical and the infrastructural field, whereupon for this study the influence of the human features on the accident development in two different age groups is of interest. ACAS is both an accident model and an analysis and classification system, which describes the human participation factors of an accident and their causes in the temporal sequence (from the perceptibility to concrete action errors) taking into consideration the logical sequence of individual basic functions. In five steps (categories) of a logical and temporal sequence the hierarchical system makes human functions and processes as determinants of accident causes identifiable. The methodology specifically focuses on the use in so-called "In-Depth" and "On-Scene" investigation studies. With the help of the system for each accident participant one or more of five hypotheses of human cause factors are formed and then specified by appropriate verification criteria. These hypotheses in turn are further specified by indicators in such manner that the coding of the causation factors by a code system meets the needs of database processing and are accessible to a quantitative data analysis. The first results of the descriptive comparison of the two age groups concern mainly differences in the functional levels "information admission/perception" (where the elderly drivers have more difficulties than the young ones) and "information processing/evaluation" (where the younger drivers show more problems). Concerning the cognitive function of "planning" the group of younger drivers seems to be more often involved in an accident because of excessive speed.
Injuries in motorbike accidents in correlation with protective clothes and mechanism of the accident
(2013)
This study deals with a possible connection between safety clothing / accident mechanism and injury severity in a state-wide traffic accident investigation with focus on light and small motorbike-involvement for accidents in the area of the Saarland in which the persons riding the bike have been injured or killed. An interdisciplinary team of medical scientists and engineers collected the medical and technical data as well as all the relevant traces of the accident on scene and in time. During twenty months of data collection a total of 401 cases could be gathered. Grave injuries were more common for the group of heavier motorcycles (>125 ccm). Motorcyclists had been polytraumatized only in the group where the accident was connected with a collision. Significant correlation between protective clothes and injury severity could only be found for protective gloves and protective trousers. The knowledge about mechanism of the accident, protective clothes and severity of injuries can be helpful for the improvement of road and motorcyclists' safety.
The overall purpose of the ASSESS project is to develop a relevant and standardised set of test and assessment methods and associated tools for integrated vehicle safety systems, primarily focussing on currently available pre-crash sensing systems. The first stage of the project was to define casualty relevant accident scenarios so that the test scenarios will be developed based on accident scenarios which currently result in the greatest injury outcome, measured by a combination of casualty severity and casualty frequency. The first analysis stage was completed using data from a range of accident databases, including those which were nationally representative (STATS19, UK and STRADA, SE) and in-depth sources which provided more detailed parameters to characterise the accident scenarios (GIDAS, DE and OTS, UK). A common analysis method was developed in order to compare the data from these different sources, and while the data sets were not completely compatible, the majority of the data was aligned in such a way that allowed a useful comparison to be made. As the ASSESS project focuses on pre-crash sensing systems fitted to passenger cars, the data selected for the analysis was "injury accidents which involved at least one passenger car". The accident data analysis yielded the following ranked list of most relevant accident scenarios: Rank Accident scenario 1 Driving accident - single vehicle loss of control 2 Accidents in longitudinal traffic (same and opposite directions) 3 Accidents with turning vehicle(s) or crossing paths in junctions 4 Accidents involving pedestrians The ranked list highlights the relatively large role played by "accidents in longitudinal traffic", and "accidents with turning vehicle(s) or crossing paths in junctions" (the second and third most prevalent accident scenarios, respectively). The pre-crash systems addressed in ASSESS propose to yield beneficial safety outcomes with specific regard to these accident scenarios. This indicates that the ASSESS project is highly relevant to the current casualty crash problem. In the second stage of the analysis a selection of these accident scenarios were analysed further to define the accident parameters at a more detailed level .This paper describes the analysis approach and results from the first analysis stage.
A total survey of road traffic accidents involving most severely injured, defined as sustaining a polytrauma or severe monotrauma (ISS > 15) or being killed, was conducted over 14 months in a large study region in Germany. Data on injuries, pre-clinical and clinical care, crash circumstances and vehicle damage were obtained both prospectively and retrospectively from trauma centers, dispatch centers, police and fire departments. 149 patients with a polytrauma and eight with a severe monotrauma were recorded altogether. 22 patients died in hospital. Another 76 victims had deceased at the accident scene. In 2008, 49 % of patients treated with life-threatening injuries were car or van occupants, 21 % motorcyclists, 18 % cyclists and 10 % pedestrians. Among fatalities at the scene, vehicle occupants constituted an even larger portion. The number of road users with life-threatening trauma in the region was extrapolated to the German situation. It suggests that 10 % among the "seriously injured" as defined in national accident statistics are surviving accident victims with a polytrauma or severe monotrauma.
Estimation of the benefits for the UK for potential options to modify UNECE Regulation No. 95
(2010)
The side impact problem in Europe remains substantial. UK data shows that between 22% and 26% of car occupant casualties are involved in a side impact, but this rises to between 29% and 38% for those who are fatally injured. This indicates the more injurious nature of side impacts compared with frontal impacts. The European Enhanced Vehicle safety Committee (EEVC) has performed work to address the side impact issue since 1979. As part of its continuing work, it has recently investigated potential options for regulatory changes to improve side impact protection in cars further. To support this work the UK undertook an analysis to estimate the benefit for potential options to modify UNECE Regulation 95. The analysis used the UK national STATS19 and detailed Co-operative Crash Injury Study (CCIS) accident databases. Of the potential options reviewed, it was found that the addition of a pole test offered the greatest benefit.
This study that was funded by the Research Association for Automotive Technology (FAT) develops a method for the evaluation of the placement of tanks or batteries by using the deformation frequencies in real-world accidents. Therefore, the deformations of more than 20.000 passenger cars in the GIDAS database are analysed. For each vehicle a contour of deformation is calculated and the deformed areas of the vehicles are transferred in a rangy matrix of deformation. Thereby, the vehicle is divided into more than 190.000 cells. Afterwards, all single matrices of deformation are summarized for each cell which allows representative analyses of the deformation frequencies of accidents with passenger cars in Germany. On the basis of these deformation frequencies it is possible to determine least deformed areas of all passenger cars. Furthermore, intended placements of tanks or batteries can be estimated in an early stage of development. Therefore, all vehicles with deformations in the intended tank areas can be analysed individually. Considering numerous parameters out of the GIDAS database (e.g. collision speed, kind of accident, overlap, collision partner etc.) the occurring forces can be calculated or the deformation frequency can be estimated. Furthermore, it is possible to consider the influence of primary and secondary safety systems on the deformation behaviour. The analysis of "worst case accident events" is an additional application of the calculated matrix of deformation frequency.
The NHTSA-sponsored Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) has collected and analyzed crash, vehicle damage, and detailed injury data from over 4000 case occupants who were patients admitted to Level-I trauma centers following involvement in motor vehicle crashes. Since 2005, CIREN has used a methodology known as "BioTab" to analyze and document the causes of injuries resulting from passenger vehicle crashes. BioTab was developed to provide a complete evidenced-based method to describe and document injury causation from in-depth crash investigations with confidence levels assigned to the causes of injury based on the available evidence. This paper describes how the BioTab method is being used in CIREN to leverage the data collected from in-depth crash investigations, and particularly the detailed injury data available in CIREN, to develop evidence-based assessments of injury causation. CIREN case examples are provided to demonstrate the ability of the BioTab method to improve real-world crash/injury data assessment.
Tree impacts are still one of the most important focal points of road deaths in Germany. For the year 2008, the latest figures in the national statistics show a share of 28% of road users killed in crashes with trees alongside a road amongst all crashes on rural roads (except the Autobahn). The official German statistics show the attribute "impact on a tree" since 1995. For this first reported year, the share of road users killed in such crashes was 30%. During the last 14 years, fatal accidents with road users killed on rural roads (except the Autobahn) after impacts on a tree declined by 60% from 1,737 (year 1995) to 696 (year 2008). But this is more or less in line with the general evolution of vehicle and traffic safety in Germany. For Germany as a whole the accident statistics do not show a reduction for "treer crashes" which is clearly more than the average for all accidents. But, as shown with the paper, there are different evolutions in the several German States. In public awareness the topic "tree impacts" is mostly associated with the situation in Germany after the reunification. At that time a lot of road users were killed on the avenues in the so called "new countries". The fact that "tree impacts" are still a big share within the figure of killed road users seems to be little-known. Using updated information coming from the official statistics and in-depth-studies, accident researchers can identify a big potential for further improvements of traffic safety on the associated district roads, state roads and federal highways. There is still a need to analyse more details of the accident occurrence with impacts on trees to generate new and updated findings on the current limits and potentials of measures to improve vehicle and traffic safety. To make further efforts in reducing the figures of victims of "tree impacts" the intensification of well-known conventional solutions " for example implementation of guard rails and reduction of speed - is an option. Measures related to vehicle safety technology especially in the field of primary (active) safety will have additional benefit within the physically imposed limits. With this background it can be seen that the subject "tree impacts" should be analysed with a holistic approach taking into account the entire system of driver, vehicle, road, the environment and a social consensus as well.
Small overlap frontal crashes are defined by a damage pattern with most of the vehicle deformation concentrated outboard of the main longitudinal structures. These crashes are prominent among frontal crashes resulting in serious and fatal injuries, even among vehicles that perform well in regulatory and consumer information crash tests. One of the critical aspects of understanding these crashes is knowing the crash speeds that cause the types of damage associated with serious injuries. Laboratory crash tests were conducted using 12 vehicles in three small overlap test conditions: pole, vehicle-to-vehicle collinear, and vehicle-to-vehicle oblique (15-degree striking angle). Field reconstruction techniques were used to estimate the delta V for each vehicle, and these results were compared with actual delta V values based on vehicle accelerometer data. Estimated delta Vs were 50% lower than actual values. Velocity change estimates for small overlap frontal crashes in databases such as NASS-CDS significantly underestimate actual values.
Pedestrian and cyclist are the most vulnerable road users in traffic crashes. One important aspect of this study was the comparable analysis of the exact impact configuration and the resulting injury patterns of pedestrians and cyclists in view of epidemiology. The secondary aim was assessment of head injury risks and kinematics of adult pedestrian and cyclists in primary and secondary impacts and to correlate the injuries related to physical parameters like HIC value, 3ms linear acceleration, and discuss the technical parameter with injuries observed in real-world accidents based documented real accidents of GIDAS and explains the head injuries by simulated load and impact conditions based on PC-Crash and MADYMO. A subsample of n=402 pedestrians and n=940 bicyclists from GIDAS database, Germany was used for preselection, from which 22 pedestrian and 18 cyclist accidents were selected for reconstruction by initially using PC-Crash to calculate impact conditions, such as vehicle impact velocity, vehicle kinematic sequence and throw out distance. The impact conditions then were employed to identify the initial conditions in simulation of MADYMO reconstruction. The results show that cyclists always suffer lower injury outcomes for the same accident severity. Differences in HIC, head relative impact velocity, 3ms linear contiguous acceleration, maximum angular velocity and acceleration, contact force, throwing distance and head contact timing are shown. The differences of landing conditions in secondary impacts of pedestrians and cyclists are also identified. Injury risk curves were generated by logistic regression model for each predicting physical parameters.
The accident research of Hanover and (from 1999 on) Dresden registered 736 leg injuries (AIS ≥ 2) from 1983 to March 2007. 174 of these injuries (23.6 %) were fractures or dislocations of foot and ankle. 149 feet of 141 front seat car occupants in 140 cars were affected. Of these 117 were drivers, 24 were front seat passengers. The mean age of occupants was 38.5 -± 16.8 years. Ankle fractures were the most frequent injury (n = 82; 80 malleolar fractures, 2 pilon fractures). 34 fractures and dislocations affected the hindfoot (5 talus and 26 calcaneal fractures, 2 subtalar dislocations and 1 subtotal amputation) , 16 to midfoot (4 navicular fractures, 5 cuboid fractures, 3 fractures of cuneiformia, 2 dislocations of chopart joint, 1 subtotal amputation, and one severe decollement) and 39 the forefoot (metatarsal fractures). Open fractures were seldom seen (2 malleolar fractures, 1 metatarsal fracture). Both feet were injured in 10 cases. 33 occupants (23.4 %) were polytaumatic had a polytrauma, 17 of them died. 81 percent of the occupants were belted. The cars were divided in pre EuroNCAP (year of manufacture 1997 and older) and post EuroNCAP cars (year of manufacture 1998 and newer). Most of the foot injuries were seen in pre EuroNCAP cars. Most of the occupants sat in compact cars (40 drivers and 9 front seat passengers) and large family cars (27 drivers and 7 co-drivers). 49 of 140 accidents occurred on country roads, 26 on main roads and 13 on motorways. The crash direction was mostly frontal. Generally were found no differences of delta v- and EES-level between the injured foot regions, but divided into pre- and post-EuroNCAP cars there was a tendency to higher delta v- and EES-levels in newer cars. The frequency of foot injuries increased linearly with increasing delta v-level; but above delta v-level of 55 km/h the linear increase only was seen in pre-EuroNCAP cars, post-EuroNCAP cars showed no further increase of injuries. The footwell intrusion showed no difference between the injured foot regions but pre-EuroNCAP cars had a tendency to higher footwell intrusion. There were no differences in footwell intrusion between the car types. Only 29 of 174 fractures or dislocations of foot were seen in post-EuroNCAP cars, the predominate number of these injuries (n = 145) were noticed in pre-EuroNCAP cars. A lower probability of long-term impairment was found in post-EuroNCAP cars for equal delta v levels, using the AIS2008 associated Functional Capacity Index (FCI) for the foot region.
Unfortunately, there has been a high number of accident fatalities reported in the Czech Republic in recent years. There are many causes which have led to a growth in the number of road traffic accidents. Since 1990, traffic density has demonstrated an upward moving tendency, daily traffic-jams are on the increase in many cities and traffic capacity on roads and streets is not able to satisfy this increasing density. Moreover, many road users lack experience in terms of driving modern cars. The National Accident Study of the Czech Republic is based on the assumption that the year 2010 is considered as a pilot project with the testing operation of collecting and evaluating data from traffic accidents. From the beginning of 2011, a fully-functional structure of the Traffic Accident Research will be created and solid data generated. Based on this assumption, we hope to begin meaningful cooperation with foreign countries.
Recent findings from real-world accident data have shown that fatality risks for pedestrians are substantially lower than generally reported in the traffic safety literature. One of the keys to this insight has been the large and random sample of car-to-pedestrian crashes available in the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS). Another key factor has been the proper use of weight factors in order to adjust for outcome-based sampling bias in the accident data. However, a third factor, a priori of unknown importance, has not yet been properly analysed. This is the influence of errors in impact speed estimation. In this study, we derived a statistical model of the impact speed errors for pedestrian accidents present in the GIDAS database. The error model was then applied to investigate the effect of the estimation error on the pedestrian fatality risk as a function of car impact speed. To this end, we applied a method known as the SIMulation-EXtrapolation (SIMEX) method. It was found that the risk curve is fairly tolerant to some amount of random measurement error, but that it does become flattened. It is therefore important that the accident investigations and reconstructions are of high quality to assure that systematic errors are minimised and that the random errors are under control.
A national initiative from the vehicle manufacturers, safety system suppliers, the road administration and universities in Sweden took off in 2007. The aim was to develop a national investigation network and a methodology focusing on all phases of a crash (pre-crash, in-crash and post-crash) as well as all parts of the road transport system (road user, vehicle and road environment). The initiative is formally run as a project with the acronym INTACT (Investigation Network and Accident Collection Techniques). It was a three year pilot with the aim to develop methodologies for an extended national crash investigation activity. During the first year the INTACT partners agreed on the aim for the investigation and methods for retrieving the data were developed. During the second and third year the methodology was tested in real-world investigations and further refinement was made. The paper describes the methodology developed to obtain high qualitative in-depth road crash data.
Accidents involving two wheels vehicles represent one of the more important types of accidents in Europe. These accidents are usually not easy to reconstruct specially for the analysis of the injuries and its correlation with accident dynamics and evidences. Different methodologies are applied in this work for the reconstruction of two wheeler accidents, especially accident involving motorcycles. From the typologies of road evidences like skid marks, to the use of Pc-Crash and the use of Madymo models, different reconstruction of real accidents are presented. One of the questions that sometimes arise for legal purposes when some type of head injuries arise is if the occupant was wearing or not a helmet. The correlation of head injuries with the use of the helmet is a very important issue, therefore an important legal aspect. One of the key questions for the reconstructions that is difficult to analyze, is if the vehicle occupant, was or not, wearing the helmet. Based on the previously collected information, a generic model of a helmet was developed on CAD 3D, followed by its conversion into finite elements, all in order to perform impact tests using the Madymo software that would help improve the helmet- safety, but that also can be used as a tool in accident reconstruction.
Causation patterns and data collection blind spots for fatal intersection accidents in Norway
(2010)
Norwegian fatal intersection accidents from the years 2005-2007 were analysed to identify any causation patterns among their underlying contributing factors, and also to evaluate whether the data collection and documentation procedures used by the Norwegian in-depth investigation teams produces the information necessary to perform causation pattern analysis. A total of 28 fatal accidents were analysed. Details on crash contributing factors for each driver in each crash were first coded using the Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM), and then aggregated based on whether the driver was going straight or turning. Analysis results indicate that turning drivers to a large extent are faced with perception difficulties and unexpected behaviour from the primary conflict vehicle, while at the same time trying to negotiate a demanding traffic situation. Drivers going straight on the other hand have less perception difficulties. Instead, their main problem is that they largely expect turning drivers to yield. When this assumption is violated, they are either slow to react or do not react at all. Contributing factors often pointed to in literature, e.g. high speed, drugs and/or alcohol and inadequate driver training, played a role in 12 of 28 accidents. While this confirms their prevalence, it also indicates that most drivers end up in these situations due to combinations of less auspicious contributing factors. In terms of data collection and documentation, information on blunt end factors (those more distant in time/space, yet important for the development of events) was more limited than information on sharp end factors (those close in time/space to the crash). A possible explanation is that analysts may view some blunt end factors as event circumstances rather than contributing factors in themselves, and therefore do not report them. There was also an asymmetry in terms of reported obstructions to view due to signposts and vegetation. While frequently reported as contributing for turning drivers, they were rarely reported as contributing for their counterparts in the same accidents. This probably reflects an involuntary focus of the analyst on identifying contributing factors for the driver legally held liable, while less attention is paid to the driver judged not at fault. Since who to blame often is irrelevant from a countermeasure development point of view, this underlying investigator mindset needs addressing to avoid future bias in crash investigation reports.
The purpose of this study was to analyse the actual injury situation of bicyclists regarding accidents involving more than one bicyclist. Bicyclists were included in a medical and technical analysis to create a basis for preventive measures and discovered repeating accident patterns and circumstances such as daytime, environment, helmet use rate. Technical and medical data were collected at the scene, shortly after accident. The population was compared focusing on bicycle versus bicycle accidents. Technical analysis included speed at crash, type of collision, impact angle, environment, used lane and relative velocity. Medical analysis included injury pattern and severity (AIS, ISS). Included were 578 injured bicyclists in 289 accidents from years 1999 to 2008, 61 percent were male (n=350) and 39 percent female (n=228). Sixty-seven percent ranged between 18 to 64 years of age, twelve percent each between 13 to 17 years of age and older than 65 years, eight percent between 6 to 12 years and one percent between 2 to 5 years.. Crashes took place in urban areas in 92 percent, in rural areas in 8 percent. Weather conditions were dry lanes in 97 percent and wet conditions in 3 percent. Eighty-three percent of all accidents happened during daytime, ten percent during night, and seven percent during dawn. The helmet use rate was only 7,5 percent in all involved bicyclists. The mean Maximum Abbreviated injury scale, Injury severity score was 1,31. Bicyclists are still minimally- or unprotected road users. The helmet use rate is unsatisfactorily low. The incidence of bicycle to bicycle crashes is high. Most of these accidents take place in urban areas. The level and pattern of injuries is moderate. Most of the more severe injuries occur to the head and could have been avoided by frequent helmet use.
The National Highways Development Project in India is aimed at upgrading over 12,000 km of national highways from 2-lane undivided roads to 4-lane divided roads. With nearly 40% of fatal crashes being reported on national highways, the effect of this project on road safety needs to be assessed. Researchers carried out on-site crash investigations and in-depth crash data collection for a period of 45 to 60 days on four 2-lane undivided highways and a 4-lane divided highway. Based on 76 crashes examined, researchers found a shift of crash pattern from head-on collisions on undivided 2- lane highways to front-rear collisions on divided 4-lane highways. This paper presents the methodology, analysis of crashes examined, and the critical safety problems identified for greater consideration in future highway development projects. This paper also highlights the need and significance of in-depth crash investigations to understand local traffic conditions and problems in India.
Accidents with vulnerable road users require special attention within the road safety work because these accidents are often accompanied with severe injuries. Thus In 2006 at least 6200 Powered Two Wheeler (PTW) riders were killed in road crashes in the EU 25 representing 16% of the total number of road deaths while accounting for only 2% of the total kilometers driven. For the prevention of accidents with VRU above all the knowledge of the causes of the accidents is of special importance. This study is based on the methodology of the German In-Depth Accident Study GIDAS. Within GIDAS extensive data on various fields of accidentology are collected on-scene from road traffic accidents with injuries in the Hannover and Dresden area. Using a well defined sample plan the collected data is highly representative to the whole German situation (Brühning et al, Otte et al). The need of in-depth accident causation data in accident research led to the development of a special tool for the collection of such data called ACASS (Accident Causation Analysis with Seven Steps), which was implemented in the GIDAS methodology in 2008 and described by Otte in 2009.
Although ATV accidents account for numerous deaths in the US and Australia, the role in traffic accidents and hospital admissions in Germany is unknown. At a level I trauma centre, hospital and crash charts were analysed for medical and technical parameters of ATV accidents. ATV drivers were 0.1% of emergency trauma patients. The mean total hospital stayrnwas 15 days; there were 1.5 stays per patients with 2.0 surgical procedures needed. One patient died, only two recovered fully. 14 cases of ATV accidents out of 18990 (0.1%) were documented within 10 years. The mean impact velocity was 35 km/h. Car collisions were predominant. The upper extremity was the predominant injured region (AIS 0.7), Mean maximum AIS was 1.4. ATV accidents in Germany are rare but pose high risk for severe injuries. Possible reasons are low active and passive security, limited experience and risky driving behaviour. Preventive measures are discussed.rn
Who doesn't wear seat belts?
(2009)
Using real world accident data, seat belts were estimated to be 61% effective at preventing fatalities, and 32% effective at preventing serious injuries. They were most effective for drivers with an airbag. Seat belts were estimated as having prevented 57,000 fatalities and 213,000 seriously injured casualties in the UK since 1983. Seat belt legislation was estimated to have prevented 31,000 fatalities and 118,000 seriously injured casualties. A future increase in effective seat belt wearing rate (which takes into account seating position) in the UK from 92.5% to 93% may prevent casualties valued at a societal cost of over -£18 million per year. To target a seat belt campaign, the question "who doesn"t wear seat belts?" must be answered. Seat belt wearing rates and the number of unbelted casualties were analysed. It was primarily young adult males who didn"t wear seat belts, and they made up the majority of unbelted fatalities and seriously injured casualties.
Over the last decades the number of traffic accident fatalities on German roads decreased by 77% down to 4968 in the year 2007. This positive development is due to optimisations of vehicle safety, roads and infrastructure and medical rescue issues. Up to now mostly the optimisations of secondary safety measures lead to this effect on vehicle safety. Since some years more and more driver assistance systems are available and lead to a further reduction of all accidents. These new systems are often comfort systems and have not primarily been developed to increase vehicle safety. In contrast to secondary safety systems primary safety systems are able to mitigate and avoid accidents. So in the future it is important to estimate the benefit of these systems in reducing accident numbers as well. Current benefit estimation methods mostly focus on a single system only and not on the combination of systems. In this paper a new method for a multivariate benefit estimation based on real accident data is developed. The paper describes the basic method to estimate the benefit of primary and secondary safety systems in combination. With the presented method the benefit will not be overestimated as it would be by a simple addition of the benefits of single systems. The model will be validated by a multivariate prospective benefit estimation of different vehicle safety systems in comparison to single benefit estimations of the same systems. For this the German In-Depth Accident Database is used. The results show the importance to implement the interactions of safety systems in the estimation process and rate the overestimation by a simple addition of the single system benefits. The validation includes primary and secondary safety systems in combination. The validation is done using more than 3500 real accidents which were initiated by cars. This sample out of the GIDAS database is representative for the current accident situation in Germany. The paper shows the necessity of a multivariate estimation of the benefit for existing and future safety systems.
One of the major problems of road safety in Europe is the powered two wheelers accidents. One of the European countries with one of the highest rates is Portugal where in 2006, mopeds and motorcycles fatalities represented 27% of all road users deaths. In this work, a deep analysis and overview of the current state of mopeds and motorcycles accidents for the 2004-2006 period is presented. Within this period 830 PTW occupants die, 2958 have been severely injured and 25000 suffer slight injuries. A detailed analysis of the conditions of these accidents has been carried out, using the data of the national accident database. This analysis provides global information, about geographic environmental conditions, driver- characteristics among others. From this data detailed information is obtained allowing to know when, where and who. In order to answer the question why more a widely collection of data has been collect for 70 accidents. The data has been collected using OECD methodology. For these accidents a detailed reconstruction has been carried out, what is especially important for fatal accidents where for instance speed in an important factor. From these collection and analysis of data a wider overview of facts and measures are extracted. Among them, some are emphasized such as that the quality and non-use of helmets plays an important role in severe and fatal accidents especially for accidents involving moped vehicles, or speed is the most important factor in fatal accidents involving motorcycles. Concerning motorcycle accident reconstruction, different tools can be used depending of the accident scenario and complexity. For simple cases, with specific characteristics, analytical formulation based in vehicle crash dynamics can be use in order to determine the impact speed of the vehicles impact, analysing the skid marks, deformations, victims rest position and considering parameters (EES, vehicle deceleration, etc). Aspects such as the energy absorption capability of motorcycles are also discussed. In the general cases the accident reconstruction software Pc-Crash has been used for the reconstruction of the accident. In very complex cases, has for instance the impact between motorcyclist and barriers, Madymo software is used especially to determine speed from injuries. An example of the impact of a motorcyclist and a motorcyclist-friendly barrier is present to illustrate the benefits and limitations of such systems.
A set of recommendations for pan-European transparent and independent road accident investigations has been developed by the SafetyNet project. The aim of these recommendations is to pave the way for future EU scale accident investigation activities by setting out the necessary steps for establishing safety oriented road accident investigations in Member States. This can be seen as the start of the process for establishing road accident investigations throughout Europe which operate according to a common methodology. The recommendations propose a European Safety Oriented Road Accident Investigation Programme which sets out the procedures that need to be put in place to investigate a sample of every day road accidents. They address four sets of issues; institutional addressing the characteristics of the programme; operational describing the conditions under which data isrncollected; data storage and protection; and reports, countermeasures and the dissemination of data.rn
Crash involvement studies using routine accident and exposure data : a case for case-control designs
(2009)
Fortunately, accident involvement is a rare event: the chance of an individual road user trip to end up in a crash is close to zero. Thus, according to general epidemiological principles one can expect the case-control study design to be especially suitable for quantifying the relative risk (odds ratio) of accident involvement of road users with a certain risk factor as compared to road users that do not have this characteristic. Ideally, of course, the database for such a case-control study should be established by drawing two independent random samples of cases (accidental units) and controls (nonaccidental units), respectively. If, however, special data collection is not an option, it is nevertheless possible to analyze routine accident and exposure data under a case-control design in order to fully exploit the information contained in already existing databases. As a prerequisite, accident and exposure data from different sources are to be combined in a single file of micro or grouped data in a way consistent with the case-control study design. Among other things, the proposed methodological approach offers the possibility to use in-depth data of the GIDAS type also in investigations of active vehicle safety by combining this data with appropriate vehicle trip data collected in mobility surveys.
The SafetyNet project was formulated in part to address the need for safety oriented European road accident data. One of the main tasks included within the project was the development of a methodology for better understanding of accident causation together with the development of an associated database involving data obtained from on-scene or "nearly onscene" accident investigations. Information from these investigations was complemented by data from follow-up interviews with crash participants to determine critical events and contributory factors to the accident occurrence. A method for classification of accident contributing factors, known as DREAM 3.0, was developed and tested in conjunction with the SafetyNet activities. Collection of data and case analysis for some 1 000 individual crashes have recently been completed and inserted into the database and therefore aggregation analyses of the data are now being undertaken. This paper describes the methodology development, an overview of the database and the initial aggregation analyses.
Nowadays, traffic accidents are recorded in historical databases. Regarding the huge quantity of data, the use of data mining tools is essential to help Experts, for automatically extracting relevant information in order to establish and quantify relations between severity and potential factors of accidents. An innovative approach is here proposed for an in depth investigation of real world accidents data base. Mutual information ratio based on conditional entropies is used to quantity the association strength between an accident outcome descriptor (injury severity) and other potential association factors. Information theoretic methods help to select automatically groups of factors mostly responsible of the severity of accident.
A lot of factors are related to a road traffic accident; particularly human factors such as road use characteristic, driving maneuver characteristic and safety attitude are the major ones. As a random factor is also included, so it is necessary to minimize the contribution of a random factor to identify human factors related to a road traffic accident. There are several standpoints for traffic accident analysis, such as vehicle-based, location-based and driver-based. And it is effective to analyze driver-based traffic accident data for discussion on the relation between human factors and accidents. An integrated traffic accident database system was developed for analysis considering driver- accident and violation records by ITARD, and several studies were carried out for the evaluation. Useful data for discussion on the relation between types of collision and traffic violations, and the effect of accident experience to the following accident were obtained.
Methods for analyzing the efficiency of primary safety measures based on real life accident data
(2009)
Primary safety measures are designed to help to avoid accidents or, if this is not possible, to stabilize respectively reduce the dynamics of the vehicle to such an extent that the secondary safety measures are able to act as good as possible. The efficiency of a primary safety measure is a criterion for the effectiveness, with which a system of primary safety succeeds in avoiding or mitigation the severity of accidents within its range of operation and in interactionwith driver and vehicle. Based on Daimler-´s philosophy of the "Real Life Safety" the reflection of the real world accidents in the systems range of operation is both starting point as well as benchmark for its optimization. This paper deals with the methodology to perform assessments of statistical representative efficiency of primary safety measures. To be able to carry out an investigation concerning the efficiency of a primary safety measure in a transparent and comparable way basic definitions and systematics were introduced. Based on these definitions different systematic methods for estimating efficiency were discussed and related to each other. The paper is completed by presenting an example for estimating the efficiency of actual "single" and "multi" connected primary safety systems.
A lack of representative European accident data to aid the development of safety policy, regulation and technological advancement is a major obstacle in the European Union. Data are needed to assess the performance of road and vehicle safety and is also needed to support the development of further actions by stakeholders. This short-paper describes the process of developing a data collection and analysis system designed to partly fill these gaps. A project team with members from 7 countries was set up to devise appropriate variable lists to collect fatal crash data under the following topic levels: accident, road environment, vehicle, and road user, using retrospective detailed police reports (n=1,300). The typical level of detail recorded was a minimum of 150 variables for each accident. The project will enable multidisciplinary information on the circumstances of fatal crashes to be interpreted to provide information on a range of causal factors and events surrounding the collisions.
The Powered Two Wheelers (PTWs) accidents constitute one of the road safety targets in Europe. PTWs users' fatalities represent 15% of EU road fatalities, having increased the last few years, which is quite opposite than other road users casualties. To reduce PTW accidents is necessary to know which the accident causations are from different points of view (human factor, vehicle characteristics, environment, type of accident, situation, etc.). In TRACE project ("Traffic Accident Causation in Europe", under the European Commission 6th Framework Program, 2006-2008,) a specific task was focused on PTW users point of view, analyzing extensive databases to locate the main accident configurations (type of accident, severity, frequency), and an in-depth database to obtain the causation factors, the risk factors for each configuration founded in the extensive databases analysis and the variables associated to each causation factor in the PTW configurations.
It is well known that motorcycle riding is fascinating but quite more dangerous than for example car driving. In 2006, 5,091 persons were killed as victims of crashes occurring on public roads in Germany. 52% (2,683) were car occupants, 16% (793) motorcycle riders, 14% (711) pedestrians, 10% (486) bicycle riders, 5% (235) commercial vehicle occupants, 2% (107) riders of smaller powered two-wheelers, called "Mofa, Moped and Mokick". This shows that motorcycle riders recently are the second largest group of killed traffic participants in Germany. Latest information coming from the Federal Statistics predict for the year 2007 the figure of 4,958 killed road victims in total. This would be again a successful reduction (-133 killed persons or "2.6% compared to the year 2006). But the news coming from the Federal Statistics during the year 2007 and at the begin of 2008 did not always tell the same positive story. It is questioned whether the positive trend of substantially reduced figures of killed road user year by year will longer continue for Germany. That means it could be impossible to reach the ambitious target, set by the European Commission, to cut in half the figure of killed road users until the year 2010 " compared to the figure for the year 2001. It was reported that the group of 45 to 49 years old traffic participants (all traffic modes) is conspicuous with an increase of 30% up to 297 killed road users in total from January to August 2007. This increase can be ascribed in particular by an increase of killed motorcycle riders within this age group. Due to mild weather conditions in Germany in 2007 the season for motorcycle riding began relatively early and this may be a main reason for the increase of the figure of killed motorcycle riders by 16% from January to August 2007. With this background the accident occurrence of motorcycles became more and more essential. As part of the actual discussion about historical trends, recent emphases, causes and relevant structures of the events of motorcycle crashes it is evident, to have latest and carefully updated figures coming from both the Federal Statistics and In-depth studies. The paper will give a contribution to this using the German Federal Statistics and in-depth studies, for example GIDAS. Additional data coming from the DEKRA Motorcycle Accident Database as well as from literature are considered, too. The paper will help to describe the current situation of the accident involvement of motorcycles in Germany.
Novice drivers are at high risk for crash involvement. We performed an analysis of causations, injury patterns and distributions of novice drivers in cars and on motorcycles in road traffic as a basis for proper measurements. Method Data of accident and hospital records of novice drivers (licence < 2 years) were analysed focusing the following parameters: injury type, localisation and mechanism, Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS), maximum AIS (MAIS), delta-v, collision speed and other technical parameters and have been compared to those of experienced drivers. In 18352 accidents in the area of Hannover (years1985"2004), 2602 novice drivers and 18214 experienced drivers were recorded having an accident. Novice car drivers were more often and severe injured than experienced and on motorcycles the experienced riders were at higher risk. Novice drivers of both groups sustained more often extremity injuries. 4.5 % novice car drivers were not restraint compared to 3.7 % of the experienced drivers and 6.1 % novice motorcycle drivers did not wear a proper helmet (versus 6.5 %). Severe injuries sustained at a rate of 20 % at collision speeds below 30 km/h and in 80% at collision speeds above 50 km/h. Novice car drivers drove significant older cars. The risk profile of novice drivers is similar to those of drivers older than 65 years. Structural protection and special lectures like skidding courses could be proper remedial action next to harder punishment of violations.
Side impacts, both nearside and farside, have been indicated by research to be responsible for a large proportion of serious injuries from road crashes. This study aimed to compare and contrast the characteristics of nearside and farside crashes in Australia, Germany and the U.S., using the ANCIS, GIDAS and NASS/CDS in-depth-databases, in order to establish the impact and injury severity associated with these crashes, and the types of injuries sustained. The analyses revealed some interesting similarities, as well as differences, between both nearside and farside crashes, and the emergent trends between the three investigated countries. More specifically, it was indicated that whilst the severity of injury sustained in nearside crashes was slightly greater overall than that found for farside crashes, careful consideration of struck and nonstruck side occupants must be made when considering aspects such as vehicle design and occupant protection.
Pedestrian accidents are one of the major concerns related with road accidents around the world. Portugal has one of the highest rates of pedestrian fatalities in Europe. In this paper an overview conditions were the pedestrian accidents occurred in Portugal is presented. In the last years, a project related with the pedestrian accidents has run in Portugal for the period 2004-2006 where 603 people died, 2097 have been severely injured and about 17000 slightly injured. Within this project all the pedestrian accidents in this period have been analysed providing global information about a wide range of aspects, since location, driver and pedestrian characteristics, weather and road conditions, among others. In addition, 50 in-depth accidents have been investigated and the data collected according the Pendant methodology. For this in-depth methodology detailed information about the accident has been collected, including injuries, vehicle damage, road conditions and road user- behaviour and actions. An accident reconstruction has been carried for each case including the determination of the speeds and driver actions, and the analysis of the contributing factors for the accident. Depending of the accident complexity, different methodologies have been used to analyse these accident, from the classical analytical equations such as Simms and Woods, to the use of detailed computational pedestrian models as those included in the commercial software- PC-Crash-® or Madymo-®. Also one of the goals of our investigation is the development of multibody models and methodologies for the reconstruction of pedestrian accidents. Some of these tools integrated in the commercial software Cosmos Motion-® are presented. The advantages of the different approaches are compared and discussed for some of the accidents investigated. With these tools the impact speed can be determined from the projection distance with analytical tools or PC-Crash-®, but more complex tools should be used to determine speed from the injuries, what is especially important for fatal accidents. The influence of the vehicle geometry and stiffness characteristics is another aspect analysed, where the influence of the vehicle stiffness has been determined using a combined multibody-finite elements approach within the software Madymo-®.
Each year the traffic accident research teams in Dresden and Hanover provide an in-depth investigation of approximately two thousand accidents, aggregated in the GIDAS database. To accomplish a comprehensive review of each traffic accident recorded, a sensible and thorough encoding of suffered injuries is indispensable. The Abbreviated Injury Scale by AAAM offers a valuable and handy solution to achieve this goal. However, there were a few difficulties in the use of the AIS that came up in the past, which let to necessary improvements for the utilization of the AIS 2005 for GIDAS.
In an on-going project since 2005, ADAC has been analyzing accidents documented by the ADAC air rescue service. The knowledge derived from real-life accidents serves as a basis for new test configurations and assessment criteria. In 2007, ADAC began looking into the feasibility of international data collection. The idea of Global Accident Prevention was born. Three European partner clubs have begun pioneering the project (ÖAMTC, ANWB, and RACC). The aim is to set up an international accident research network to provide a steady stream of information on road accidents. The FIA Foundation supports ADAC in developing and coordinating this initiative.
One goal of the assessment of the crashworthiness of passenger cars is to characterize the potential of injury outcome to occupants of cars involved in an accident. This can be achieved by the help of an index that puts the number of injured occupants of passenger cars in relation to the number of cars involved in an accident. As a consequence, this index decreases with a lower potential of injury and rises with a higher number of injuries while assuming a fixed number of accidents. Another index is introduced that uses an economical weighting of each injury level. The consequential injury costs are calculated using the average economical costs for lightly, severely and fatally injured persons. The calculation of the safety indices is based on an anonymized sample of accident data provided by the Federal Statistical Office. An index of Mercedes passenger car drivers depending on the year of registration between 1991 and 2006 is compared to the index of drivers of cars of other makes within the same range of registration years.
The Centre for Automotive Safety Research (formerly the Road Accident Research Unit) at the University of Adelaide in South Australia has a history of in-depth crash investigation going back to the 1970s. In recent years, our focus has been on studying factors that contribute to road crashes, with an emphasis on the role of road infrastructure. Our method involves crash notification by the South Australian Ambulance Service and detailed investigation of the crash scene usually before the crash-involved vehicles have been moved. This at-scene data collection is supplemented with police crash reports, Coroner- reports including autopsy findings for fatal crashes, case notes from hospitals for all injured persons, structured interviews with crash participants and witnesses, and computerised reconstruction of the events of the crash. One of the most notable research findings to emerge from our in-depth work has been the relationship between travelling speed and the risk of crash involvement. By comparing the calculated free speeds of crash-involved vehicles (cases) with the measured speeds of non-crash-involved vehicles travelling on the same roads at the same time of day (controls), we were able to establish that an exponential relationship exists between travelling speed and the likelihood of involvement in a casualty crash. This was the case for both metropolitan and rural areas. This research prompted the reduction of some speed limits in Australia, which has resulted in notable decreases in crash numbers. Another finding of interest in our recent investigation of 298 mostly daytime crashes in metropolitan Adelaide was that medical conditions make a sizeable contribution to the occurrence of road crashes. We found that almost half of the drivers, riders and pedestrians involved in the collisions had at least one pre-existing medical condition, and half of these individuals had two or more such conditions. We found that a medical condition was the direct causal factor in 13% of the casualty crashes investigated and accounted for 23% of all hospital admission or fatal crash outcomes. A follow-up study of all hospital admissions for road crashes in Adelaide is now going ahead to look further at this problem. The paper also describes studies looking specifically at pedestrian crashes. These include studies of the relationship between travelling speed and the risk of a fatal pedestrian crash, and studies utilising real crash data to validate headforms and test dummies used in the assessment of the safety of new vehicles in the event of a collision with a pedestrian.
Automotive Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and TechnologyrnAbstract: The degrees of injury severity, as a rule injuries scaled by AIS of specific regions of the human body, investigated out of road traffic accidents correspond to the body-specific loading values, which are found out with the aid of experimental or mathematical simulation of crash tests with motor vehicles or with sled tests. The coherence between the injured human being on the one hand and the physical and the theoretical model respectively on the other hand is established by the risk function, which describes the probability of degrees of injury severity in dependence on the protection criteria. Due to the different physical characteristics in the simulation, e.g. accelerations, forces, compressions and their velocity, the compilation of these quantities, comparable to the MAIS, the maximal occurred single AIS obtained in accident analysis is much more difficult in the simulation than in the accident occurrence. Therefore it is obvious to normalize the loading values gained out of simulation and to summarise them to an entire value in a suitable manner, the safety index.rn
Bicyclists are minimally or unprotected road users. Their vulnerability results in a high injury risk despite their relatively low own speed. However, the actual injury situation of bicyclists has not been investigated very well so far. The purpose of this study was to analyze the actual injury situation of bicyclists in Germany to create a basis for effective preventive measures. Technical and medical data were prospectively collected shortly after the accident at the accident scenes and medical institutions providing care for the injured. Data of injured bicyclists from 1985 to 2003 were analyzed for the following parameters: collision opponent, collision type, collision speed (km/h), Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS), Maximum AIS (MAIS), incidence of polytrauma (Injury Severity Score >16), incidence of death (death before end of first hospital stay). 4,264 injured bicyclists were included. 55% were male and 45% female. The age was grouped to preschool age in 0.9%, 6 to 12 years in 10.8%, 13 to 17 years in 10.4%, 18 to 64 years in 64.7%, and over 64 years in 13.2%. The MAIS was 1 in 78.8%, 2 in 17.0%, 3 in 3.0%, 4 in 0.6%, 5 in 0.4%, and 6 in 0.2%. The incidence of polytrauma was 0.9%, and the incidence of death was 0.5%. The incidence of injuries to different body regions was as follows: head, 47.8%; neck, 5.2%, thorax, 21%; upper extremities, 46.3%; abdomen, 5.8%; pelvis, 11.5%, lower extremities, 62.1%. The accident location was urban in 95.2%, and rural in 4.8%. The accidents happened during daylight in 82.4%, during night in 12.2%, and during dawn/dusk in 5.3%. The road situation was as follows: straight, 27.3%; bend, 3.0%; junction, 32.0%; crossing, 26.4%; gate, 5.9%; others, 5.4%. The collision opponents were cars in 65.8%, trucks in 7.2%, bicycles in 7.4%, standing objects in 8.8%, multiple objects in 4.3%, and others in 6.5%. The collision speed was grouped <31 in 77.9%, 31-50 in 4.9%, 51-70 in 3.7%, and >70 in 1.5%. The helmet use rate was 1.5%. 68% of the registered head injuries were located in the effective helmet protection area. In bicyclists, head and extremities are at high risk for injuries. The helmet use rate is unsatisfactorily low. Remarkably, two thirds of the head injuries could have been prevented by helmets. Accidents are concentrated to crossings, junctions and gates. A significant lower mean injury severity was observed in victims using separate bicycle lanes. These results do strongly support the extension or addition of bicycle lanes and their consequent use. However, the lanes are frequently interrupted at crossings and junctions. This emphasizes also the important endangering of bicyclists coming from crossings, junctions and gates, i.e. all situations in which contact of bicyclists to motorized vehicles is possible. Redesigning junctions and bicycle traffic lanes to minimize the possibility of this dangerous contact would be preventive measures. A more consequent helmet use and use and an extension of bicycle paths for a better separation of bicyclists and motorized vehicle would be simple but very effective preventive measures.
In recent years special attention has been paid to reducing the number of fatalities resulting from road traffic accidents. The ambitious target to cut in half the number of road users who are killed each year by 2010 compared with the 2001 figures, as set out in the European White Paper "European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide" implies a general approach covering all kinds of road users. Much has been achieved, e.g. in relation to the safety of car passengers and pedestrians but PTW accidents still represent a significant proportion of fatal road accidents. More than 6,000 motorcyclists die annually on European roads which amounts to 16% of the EU-15 road fatalities. The European Commission therefore launched in 2004 a Sub- Project dealing with motorcycle accidents within an Integrated Project called APROSYS (Advanced PROtection SYStems) forming part of the 6th Framework Programme. In a first step, the combined national statistical data collections of Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain were analysed. Amongst other things parameters like accident location, road conditions, road alignment and injury severity have been explored. The main focus of the analysis was on serious and fatal motorcycle accidents and the results showed similar trends in all four countries. From these results 7 accident scenarios were selected for further investigation via such in-depth databases as the DEKRA database, the GIDAS 2002 database, the COST 327 database and the Dutch element of the MAIDS database. Three tasks, namely the study of PTW collisions with passenger cars, PTW accidents involving road infrastructure features, and motorcyclist protective devices have been assessed and these will concentrate inter alia on accident causes, rider kinematics and injury patterns. A detailed literature review together with the findings of the in-depths database analysis is presented in the paper. Conclusions are drawn and the further stages of the project are highlighted.
Empirical vehicle crashworthiness studies are usually based on national or in-depth traffic accident surveys: Data on accident-involved cars/drivers are analysed in order to quantify the chance of driver injury and to assess certain risk factors like car make and model. As the cars/drivers involved in the same accident form a "cluster", where the size of the cluster equals the number of accident-involved parties, traffic accident survey data are typical multi-level data with accidents as first-level or primary and cars/drivers as secondlevel or secondary units (car occupants in general are to be considered as third level units). Consequently, appropriate statistical multi-level models are to be used for driver injury risk estimation purposes as these models properly account for the cluster structure of traffic accident survey data. In recent years various types of regression models for clustered data have been developed in the statistical sciences. This paper presents multi-level statistical models, which are generally applicable for vehicle crashworthiness assessment in the sense that data on single and multiple car crashes can be analysed simultaneously. As a special case of multi-level modelling driver injury risk estimation based on paired-by-collision car/driver data is considered. It is demonstrated that assessment results may be seriously biased, if the cluster structure inherent in traffic accident survey data is erroneously ignored in the data analysis stage.
Internationally, the need is expressed for harmonized traffic accident data collection (PSN, PENDANT, etc.). Together with this effort of harmonization, traffic accident investigation moves more and more in the direction of accident causation. As current methods only partly address these needs, a new method was set up. The main characteristics of this method are: • Accident/injury causation (associated) factors can objectively be identified and quantified, by comparison with exposure information from a normal population. • All relevant accident and exposure data can be included: human-, vehicle-, and environmental related data for the pre-crash, crash and postcrash situation (the so-called Haddon matrix). The level of detail can be chosen depending on interest and/or budget, which makes the method very flexible. In this paper the accident collection and control group method are presented, including some of the achieved results from a pilot study on 30 truck accidents and 30 control locations. The data were analyzed by using cross-tabulations and classification-tree analysis. The method proved useful for the identification of statistically significant causational aspects.
In Germany, in-depth accident investigations are carried out in the Hannover area since 1973. In 1999 a second region was added with surveys in Dresden and the surrounding area. Internationally, the acronym GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study) is commonly used for these surveys. Compared to many other countries, the sample sizes of the GIDAS surveys are much larger. The goal is to collect 1.000 accidents involving personal injuries per year and region. Data collection takes place by using a sampling procedure, which can be interpreted as a two-stage process with time intervals as primary units and accidents as secondary units. An important question is, to what extend these samples are representative for the target population from which they are drawn. Analyses show, for example, that accidents with persons killed or seriously injured are overrepresented in the samples compared to accidents with slightly injured persons. This means, that these data are subject to biases due to uncontrolled variation of sample inclusion probability. Therefore, appropriate weighting and expansion methods have to be applied in order to adjust or correct for these biases. The contribution describes the statistical and methodological principles underlying the GIDAS surveys with respect to sampling procedure, data collection and expansion. In addition, some suggestions regarding potential improvements of study design are made from a methodological point of view.
Annually within the European Union, there are over 50,000 road accident fatalities and 2 million other casualties, of which the majority are either the occupants of cars or other road users in collision with a car. The European Commission now has competency for vehicle-based injury countermeasures through the Whole Vehicle Type Approval system. As a result, the Commission has recognised that casualty reduction strategies must be based on a full understanding of the real-world need under European conditions and that the effectiveness of vehicle countermeasures must be properly evaluated. The PENDANT study commenced in January 2003 in order to explore the possibility of developing a co-ordinated set of targeted, in-depth crash data resources to support European Union vehicle and road safety policy. Three main work activity areas (Work Packages) commenced to provide these resources. This paper describes some of the outcomes of Work Package 2 (WP2, In-depth Crash Investigations and Data Analysis). In WP2, some 1,100 investigations of crashes involving injured car occupants were conducted in eight EU countries to a common protocol based on that developed in the STAIRS programme. This paper describes the purposes, methodology and results of WP2. It is expected that the results will be used as a co-ordinated system to inform European vehicle safety policy in a systematic, integrated manner. Furthermore, the results of the data analyses will be exploited further to provide new directions to develop injury countermeasures and regulations.
While the number of fatal accidents is diminishing every year, there is still a need of improvement and action to prevent these deaths. Basis for this purpose has to be an analysis about the factors influencing the car crash mortality. There are various studies describing the univariate influence of several factors, but crash scenarios are too complex to be described by a single variable. The multivariate analysis respects the interference of the variables and gets so to more detailed and representative results. This multivariate analysis is based on about 2,600 cases (the data have been collected by the accident research units Hannover and Dresden (during the years 1999-2003). This paper presents a multivariate model (containing ten different variables) which detects 93% of these cases properly. This means it detects the cases as truly survived and truly death.
The need for improved EU level accident information and data was identified in the EU White Paper on Transport Policy (2001)1 and detailed in the Road Safety Action Plan (2003)2. The plan specifies that the EC will develop a road safety observatory to coordinate data collection within an integrated framework.
Electronic Stability Program (ESP) aims to prevent the lateral instability of a vehicle. Linked to the braking and powertrain systems, it prevents the car from running wide on a corner or the rear from sliding out. It also helps the driver control his trajectory, without replacing him, in the case of loss of control where the driver is performing an emergency manoeuvrer (confused and exaggerated steering wheel actions). A new ESP function optimizes ESP action in curves with hard under steering (situations in which the front wheels lose grip and the vehicle slides towards the outside of the curve). A complementary feature prevents the wheels from spinning when pulling away and accelerating. The name given to the ESP system varies according to the vehicle manufacturer, but other terms include: active stability control (ASC), automotive stability management system (ASMS), dynamic stability control (DSC), vehicle dynamic control (VDC), vehicle stability control (VSC) or electronic stability Control (ESC). This paper proposes an evaluation of the effectiveness of ESP in terms of reduction of injur accidents in France. The method consists of 3 steps: - The identification, in the French National injury accident census (Gendarmerie Nationale only), of accident-involved cars for which the determination of whether or not the car was fitted with ESP is possible. A sample of 1 356 cars involved in injury accidents occurred in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 was then selected. But we had to restrict the analysis to only 588 Renault Lagunas. - The identification of accident situations for which we can determine whether or not ESP is pertinent (for example ESP is pertinent for loss of control accidents whilst it is not for cars pulling out of a junction). - The calculation, via a logistic regression, of the relative risk of being involved in an ESPpertinent accident for ESP equipped cars versus unequipped cars, divided by the relative risk of being involved in a non ESP-pertinent accident for ESP equipped cars versus unequipped cars. This relative risk is assumed to be the best estimator of ESP effectiveness. The arguments for such a method, effectiveness indicator and implicit hypothesis are presented and discussed in the paper. Based on a few assumptions, ESP is proved to be highly effective. Currently, the relative risk of being involved in an ESP pertinent accident for ESP-equipped cars is lower (-44%, although not statistically significant)rnthan for other cars.rn
This paper reviews briefly the evolution of the investigation of transport accidents from the early beginnings when individual events were studied but systematic data was not collected. In the transport modes other than on the roads, accident investigation early on, even of single events, was important in introducing safety improvements. Road accidents, however, evolved enormously with the growth of car ownership without any comparable political response to the consequent deaths and injuries, equivalent to what happened with the other modes. From the 1950s data bases started to contribute to our knowledge of the epidemiology of road traffic injuries, and in-depth sample studies have contributed much to the body of knowledge in the last 30 years. However, even the basic input and output variables of a crash, its severity and the seriousness of the outcomes in terms of injuries and their consequences are not complete or agreed upon. Issues of experimental design and sampling are discussed. It is proposed that the most important area for current research to address is the effect of population variations on injury outcomes. The need for the establishment of good data bases for active safety issues is emphasised with the consequent need for better links between the research community and the police.
Traffic accidents were ranked the third among the major causes of death in Thailand. About 13,438 deaths and the death rate from traffic accident was 21.5 per 100,000 of population in 2002. The deaths and death rate varied upon the economic situation. After the economic crisis, traffic accidents were increased as well as the period of the bubble economy. In the Central region of Thailand numbers of road traffic crashes were lower than Bangkok Metropolis, but the highest in the number of deaths, death rate and serious injuries in 2002. Men aged 15"29 years old had higher numbers of deaths than men in other age groups and higher than women. Deaths and injuries from road traffic crashes were the highest in April and January, because there was a long weekend in those months. About 80 percent of road traffic crashes were caused by private car and motorcycle. In 2000 about 51 percent of traffic accidents took place on the straight way, followed by the junction and curves. In 2002, about 97 percent of road traffic crashes were caused by human factors including improper passing, speeding and disregarding to traffic signal, however, the identification of causes of traffic accident needed to improve. Drunk driving, disregarding on safety equipment usage, inefficiency of law enforcement and discontinuing of road safety programs were the deepest causes of traffic accidents. Research based information, a broad coalition of stakeholder and urban planning policy were needed to incorporate for a comprehensive road safety policy formulation and actions.
This report gives an overview of pedestrian accidents on Japanese roads. Database used for the analysis is national traffic accident data based on police reports. Relevant measures and background information ranging from vehicle safety, engineering and education are briefly reviewed, and area for further improvement is discussed.rn
Road safety is a major preoccupation of the European Commission and the road transport industry and depends on numerous significant factors. In order to improve road safety and to plan effective safety improvement actions for truck transport, we must first identify the problems to be addressed, i.e. what are the main causes of truck accidents. The ETAC project, initiated by the European Commission and the IRU, was launched in order to set up a heavy goods vehicle accident causation study across European countries to identify future actions which could contribute to the improvement of road safety. The results will be based on a detailed analysis of truck accident data collected in seven European countries according to a common methodology which has been elaborated through numerous national and European projects. This paper describes the common methodology used to collect the information on the scene of the accident and to analyse the data so that the reconstruction of the crash events may be carried out. CEESAR proposes a methodology using its experience gained from over 10 years of accident data collection. This methodology is based on an in-depth investigation of the parameters involved in-an accident and linked to the driver, the vehicle, the road and their environment. In-depth investigation requires accident investigator presence on the scene of the accident in order to collect volatile information such as marks on the road, weather conditions, visibility, state and equipment of the vehicle, driver interview. Later, passive and active information is gathered, either at the hospital for the driver, at the garage for the vehicle or on the spot for the road geometry. A reconstruction carried out with the help of specific software and the analysis of the data collected and calculated enables the identification of the main causes of the accident and the future actions to plan in order to improve road safety as regards truck traffic.
Motorcycle riders are one of the most vulnerable road users. Annually, on estimate 6000 people are killed in motorcycle accidents in the former 15 EU countries. The objective of this research was to investigate and analyze the main aspects and causes of this vulnerability and the accidents in general. For this aim around 70 accidents in The Netherlands were investigated in the framework of an international research program (MAIDS). Also a control group of motorcycles with riders was investigated so that exposure could be taken into account. An important result is that human failure is in 82% of the cases the main cause of the accident, in 52% this is due the other vehicle driver. Perception and decision failures are the most common failures. The most injuries are caused by the environment but they are typically only less severe (AIS1). Injuries caused by the car (front and side) are typically severe injuries (AIS4+). Previous convictions of the MC rider seem to be related to the chance to get involved in an accident. It was shown that the Dutch and the total MAIDS accident sample are comparable.
Portugal has the highest rate of road fatalities in Europe (2002 and for Eur-15 - CARE database). For this highest rate, the accidents involving pedestrians and motorcycle occupants have a higher contribution than the European average. In the last years, especially accidents involving motorcycles have been investigated and currently two different projects are being carried out, one related with motorcycles accidents and the other with pedestrian accidents. In these projects, countermeasures among others to reduce the fatalities between these two types of road users are being studied. These accidents are investigated with the commercial accident reconstruction software PCCRASH but also new methodologies based on multibody dynamics are in development in order to more accurately study these two types of accidents. In this paper, the methodologies in use for accident reconstruction and new methodologies in development are presented. Speeding his found to be one of the major causes of road fatalities for pedestrians and motorcycle occupants. In the case of motorcycle accidents, these involve mainly young drivers. Aspects as social behavior are also important to understand the causes of some of these accidents. Some examples of accidents occurring in Portugal, involving especially motorcycles and pedestrians are presented and discussed.
Data concerning accidents involving personal injury which have been collected in the context of in-depth investigations on scene in the Hannover area since 1973 and in the Dresden area since 1999 represent an important basis for empirical traffic safety research. At national and international level various analyses and comparisons are carried out on the basis of "in-depth data" from the above mentioned investigations. In-depth data play a decisive role e.g. within the validation of EuroNCAP results on secondary safety (crashworthiness) of individual passenger car models. Thus, statistically sound methods of data analysis and population parameter estimation are of high importance. Since the 1st of August 1984 the "in-depth investigations on scene" in the Hannover area have been carried out according to a sampling plan developed by HAUTZINGER in the context of a research project on behalf of BASt. In the meantime a second region of in-depth investigation on scene was added with surveys in Dresden and the surrounding area. Internationally, the acronym GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study) is commonly used for the two above mentioned surveys. The objective of a current research project (topic of this contribution) is, among other things, to examine and adjust the previous weighting and expansion method for the two regional accident investigations to the current general conditions.
Due to recent years accident avoidance and crashworthiness on Austrian roads were mostly developed on national statistics and on-scene investigation respectively. Identification and elimination of black spots were main targets. In fact many fatal accidents do not occur on such black spots and black-spot investigation has reached a limit. New methods are required and therefore the Austrian Road Safety Programme was introduced by the Austrian Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology. The primary objective is the reduction of fatalities and severe injuries. Graz University of Technology initiated the project ZEDATU (Zentrale Datenbank tödlicher Unfälle) with the goal to identify similarities in different accident configurations. A matrix was established which categorizes risk and key factors of participating parties. Based on this information countermeasures were worked out.
NASS: the glass is half full
(2007)
The National Accident Sampling System (NASS) was born in the late 1970s. It was based on a substantial amount of experience and analysis of what was needed in the United States to understand the safety challenges of our highways. This work also showed how to collect high quality and useful crash data efficiently. Unfortunately, when Ronald Reagan - a President who believed in limited government - was elected, any hope of full funding for NASS was lost. The concept of 75 teams investigating about 18,000 serious crashes in detail annually was never realized. The system got up to 50 teams, then was cut to 36, and finally to 24 teams investigating fewer than a quarter of the originally anticipated number of crashes per year. Despite this, the NASS investigations provide a rich source of data, collected according to a sophisticated statistical sampling system to facilitate detailed national estimates of road casualties on our nation- highways and their causes. In addition, changes have been made in recent years to increase the number of more serious crashes of recent model vehicles to make the results more relevant to improving vehicle safety. A recent, detailed examination of hundreds of rollovers has provided considerable insight into rollover casualties and into what can be done to reduce them. Some of these results will be presented that show the value of the NASS system. Our experience with NASS and the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) suggests a number of improvements that could be made in the United States" crash data systems. It also provides justification for a doubling or tripling of our national expenditures on crash data collection.
This study examines the severity and types of injuries sustained by child pedestrians aged 18 years and below in order to identify the body regions at greatest risk for injury in a pedestrian accident. Detailed medical diagnoses were reviewed retrospectively for 572 child pedestrians admitted to an urban pediatric trauma center with injuries during the time period from January 2001 to December 2005. Eighty percent of these children sustained AIS 2 or greater injuries, most commonly to the lower extremity (41%) and head (34%). Fortyfour percent of admitted children had more significant AIS 3 or greater injuries primarily to the head (58%), thorax (17%) and lower extremities (14%). Testing procedures to assess the child- interaction with the motor vehicle should include injury assessment for the pediatric head, thorax and lower extremities. This understanding of how child pedestrians interact with motor vehicles may provide insight into effective countermeasures with potential for implementation in vehicle designs world-wide.
In the context of this study, different data sources for accident research were examined regarding their possible data access and evaluated concerning the individual quality and extent of the data. Analyses of accidents require detailed and comprehensive information in particular concerning vehicle damages, injury patterns and descriptions of the accident sequence. The police documentation supplies the basic accident statistics and is amended in the context of the forensic treatment by further information, e.g. by medical and technical appraisals and witness questionings. As a new approach to the data acquisition for the analysis of fatal traffic accidents, the information was made usable which was collected by the police and by the investigations of the public prosecutor. The best strategy for obtaining reliable, extensive and complete data consists of combining the information from these two sources: the very complete, but elementary statistic data of the Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Statistik (Lower Saxony State Authority of Statistics), based on the police documentation as well as the very extensive accident information resulting from the investigation documentation of the public prosecutor after conclusion of the procedure, the so-called Court Records. Of all 715 fatal traffic accidents, which happened in the year 2003 in the German State of Lower Saxony, 238 cases were selected by means of a statistically coincidental selective procedure based on a statistically representative manner (every third accident). These cases cover the investigation documents of the 11 responsible public prosecutor- offices, which were requested and evaluated while preserving the data security. Of the 238 cases 202 cases were available, which were individually coded and stored in a data base using 160 variables. Thus a data base of a sample of representative data for fatal accidents in Lower Saxony was set up. The data base contains extensive information concerning general accident data (35 variables), concerning road and road surface data (30 variables), concerning vehicle-specific data (68 variables) as well as concerning personal and injury data (27 variables).
The primary goal of this investigation was to determine the relative risk of traffic accidents in students. In a two year period, a survey amongst 2,325 students was carried out, and 3,645 injuries sustained by students treated at our hospital were analyzed. Moped-riding in adolescents were associated with a 23.75-fold increased risk for injury as compared to biking. Children who ride bicycles have a 2.2-fold increased risk for an injury sustained by traffic accidents compared to pedestrians. None of 50 injured bicycle riders with helmet had an AIS for head injuries of more than 2. 24 of 233 injured bicycle drivers without helmet had an AIS for head injuries of more than 2. The use of a protective helmet significantly reduced the severity of head injuries. The level of awareness towards danger and a history of previous accidents correlate with the likelihood of future accidents. Due to the severity of traffic accidents, more adequate prevention measures (wearing of bicycle helmets and better education for moped riders) are urgently needed.
In recent years the boundaries between active and passive safety blurred more and more. Passive safety in the traditional term includes all safety aspects to prevent occupants to be injured or at least injury severity should be reduced. Passive Safety starts with the collision (first vehicle contact) and ends with rescue (open vehicle doors). Within this phase the occupant has to be protected by the passenger compartment whereby no intrusion should occur. Active safety on the other side was developed to interact prior to the collision whereby the goal is to prevent accidents. The extensive interaction between active and passive safety led to the terminologies "Primary" and "Secondary" safety whereas the expression Integrated Safety Concept was generated. Within this study the most well documented single vehicle accidents with cars not equipped with ESP were identified from the PENDANT database and reconstructed. Additional cases were found in the database ZEDATU of TU Graz. In comparison each case was simulated with the assumption that the cars were equipped with ESP. The differences regarding accident avoidance or crash severity as well as reduction of injury risk were analysed.
This paper uses the national accident statistics of Great Britain to evaluate the effectiveness of Electronic Stability Control Systems (ESC) to reduce crash involvement rates. The crash experience of 8,951 cars is analysed and compared to a closely matching set of non-ESC cars using case-control methods. This is one of the largest ESC samples analysed to date. Overall the cars with ESC are involved in 3% fewer crashes although the effectiveness is substantially higher under conditions of adverse road friction. ESC equipped cars are involved in 15% fewer fatal crashes although this reduction represents the combined effect of ESC and passive safety improvements.
The accident research project in Dresden was founded in July 1999. To date over 6.000 crash investigations have been undertaken. About 10.000 vehicles have been documented and over 13.000 participants have been debriefed. But there is much more than this scientific success. Because of the interdisciplinary character between the medical and technical focus, the project affords an important contribution for the education of the involved students. Over 200 students of different fields of study have got experiences not only for the occupational career. This lecture describes the additional effects of the accident research project regarding the education of the students, the capacity for teamwork and learning about dealing with accident casualties.
Immer wieder werden Straßenbaumaßnahmen geplant und realisiert, bei denen die Möglichkeiten der geltenden Technischen Regelwerke für eine verkehrssichere Gestaltung nicht ausgeschöpft werden. Zielsetzung des Forschungsvorhabens war es, Schulungsunterlagen zu entwickeln, die sowohl zur Qualifizierung von Sicherheitsauditoren als auch zur Weiterbildung von Planern geeignet sind. Die zu erstellenden Materialien sollen Planern und Auditoren das Erkennen von Defiziten sowie das Vermeiden von Planungsfehlern erleichtern. Neben verfügbaren Auditauswertungen Dritter und 315 von den Forschungsnehmern selbst erstellten Auditberichten wurden bestehende Schulungsunterlagen für Planer bzw. Sicherheitsauditoren auf ihren Umfang, ihre Inhalte und Konzepte hin ausgewertet. Die Festlegung der Schulungsmodule orientierte sich sowohl an den bereits in der Praxis angewendeten Curricula für die Auditorenausbildung als auch an der durchgeführten Auswertung vorhandener Auditberichte sowie der Analyse vorliegender Schulungsunterlagen. Die Schulungsmodule und deren Inhalte wurden im Arbeitsausschuss Sicherheitsaudit von Straßen vorgestellt und diskutiert. Sie sind bereits im Anhang 1 des im Druck befindlichen Merkblatts für die Ausbildung und Zertifizierung der Sicherheitsauditoren von Straßen (MAZS 2008) aufgenommen. Für die festgestellten Defizite der relevanten Entwurfselemente wurden auf Grundlage der Entwurfsregelwerke jeweils die sicherheitsrelevanten Aussagen und Entwurfslösungen herausgearbeitet und zugeordnet. Im Ergebnis wurde eine Material- und Beispielsammlung erstellt, die in den Schulungsunterlagen zu jedem Grundlagen- und Thematischen Modul auch entsprechende Beispielsequenzen zu jedem Modul beinhaltet. Diese sehr umfangreichen Schulungsunterlagen (Kap. 3) sind dem Bericht als DVD beigefuegt.
Ziel des Forschungsprojektes war die quantitative Vorausschätzung des Straßenverkehrsunfallgeschehens der Jahre 2015 und 2020 in Deutschland mit Hilfe eines eigens entwickelten Prognoseverfahrens. Das Verfahren sollte eine größtmögliche Differenzierung des zukünftigen Unfallgeschehens nach Schweregrad, Art der Verkehrsbeteiligung und Alter der Verkehrsteilnehmer erlauben. Das Modell sollte grundsätzlich in der Lage sein, Ursache - Wirkungszusammenhänge differenzierter als in herkömmlichen Ansätzen der Zeitreihenanalyse und deren Trendfortschreibung abzubilden. Den Prognosehorizont bilden die Jahre 2015 und 2020. Im Rahmen des vorliegenden Projekts erfolgte für Deutschland erstmals eine Prognose der Unfall- und Verunglücktenzahlen über eine Risikoanalyse maßgebender Unfallkonstellationen. Dabei wurde sowohl nach Ortslagen, Unfallbeteiligten und Alter der Verkehrsteilnehmer unterschieden. Mit Hilfe des vorgestellten Prognosemodells lässt sich der künftige Grad der Straßenverkehrssicherheit differenziert beurteilen. Auswirkungen der sich ändernden Rahmenbedingungen auf das Unfallgeschehen werden sowohl auf der Ebene der Unfallentstehung als auch auf der Ebene der Unfallschwere berücksichtigt. Dabei kann insbesondere der Einfluss aus Demografie und sich verändernder Zugangsvoraussetzungen zu Verkehrsmitteln auf das Unfallgeschehen abgebildet werden. Der vorgestellte erste Entwicklungsstand des Modells bietet daher bereits sehr gute Möglichkeiten, Wirkungsanalysen bei veränderten Einflussgrößen durchzuführen. Das Unfallprognosemodell wurde modular aufgebaut. Dadurch konnte eine logische und hierarchische Modellstruktur realisiert werden. In der Folge werden die einzelnen Module im Gesamtmodell sequentiell durchlaufen, sind in sich geschlossen und folgen eigenen Berechnungsvorschriften. Eine Umsetzung des Modells erfolgte auf Basis verknüpfter Excel-Dateien mit Hilfe von VBA-Makros. Hierbei wurde auf eine stark getrennte Struktur der einzelnen Berechnungsschritte Wert gelegt, um die einzelnen Dateien übersichtlich und nachvollziehbar zu gestalten. Gleichzeitig erfüllt das Modell die Forderung einer größtmöglichen Variabilität. So können sowohl geänderte Eingangsdaten zugrundegelegt werden als auch die Auswahl der differenzierten Trendberechnung beliebig getroffen werden. Im Ergebnis ist auf Basis der getroffenen Annahmen, der historischen Entwicklung und der konstellationenfeinen Fortschreibung der Risikofaktoren ein deutlicher Rückgang der Unfall- und Verunglücktenzahlen in Deutschland für den Prognosezeitraum gegenüber 2006 zu erwarten. Bei den Unfällen mit Personenschaden ist bis 2020 mit einer Abnahme um nahezu 30 % zu rechnen, bei den Verunglückten kann von einer Reduzierung um 13 % ausgegangen werden. Die Zahl getöteter Personen sinkt dabei voraussichtlich von ca. 5.100 Personen (2006) auf 2.700 Personen (2020). In Bezug auf die Schwerverletzten ist im gleichen Zeitraum mit einem Rückgang um ca. 33.000 Personen zu rechnen (2006: 74.500 Personen). Ebenso sinkt gegenüber dem Analysejahr 2006 die Anzahl Leichtverletzter um etwa 6 % auf etwa 326.000 Personen. Die Rückgänge der Verunglücktenzahlen liegen zwischen 2006 und 2015 sowie zwischen 2015 und 2020 zahlenmäßig auf einem vergleichbaren Niveau (55.000 bzw. 58.000 V). Somit wird etwa die Hälfte der Gesamtrückgänge im Prognosezeitraum allein in den letzten fünf Jahren der insgesamt fünfzehnjährigen Zeitspanne erreicht.
Abschätzung der Gesamtzahl Schwerstverletzter in Folge von Straßenverkehrsunfällen in Deutschland
(2010)
Die Zahlen der im Straßenverkehr Getöteten, Schwer- und Leichtverletzten werden in Deutschland seit Jahren in amtlichen Statistiken geführt. Über die Gruppe der besonders schwer betroffenen Patienten liegen jedoch nur vage Schätzungen vor. Auch werden unterschiedliche Kriterien zur Definition dieser so genannten Schwerstverletzten verwendet, die zumeist auf einer Beschreibung der Art und der Schwere der Verletzungen beruhen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit sollen mit Daten aus dem Trauma-Register der DGU sowohl die unterschiedlichen Definitionen dargestellt werden, als auch über verschiedene Methoden die Gesamtzahl dieser Personen in Deutschland geschätzt werden. Das TraumaRegister DGU (TR-DGU) ist eine freiwillige Dokumentation von Unfallopfern, die lebend eine Klinik erreichen, dort behandelt werden und intensivmedizinisch betreut werden müssen. Das Register besteht seit 1993 und erfasst derzeit etwa 6.000 Fälle pro Jahr aus über 100 Kliniken. Pro Patient werden ca. 100 Angaben einschließlich der Codierung seiner Verletzungen gemäß Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) erfasst. Dieser Codierung erlaubt die Berechnung des Injury Severity Score (ISS) und des New ISS (NISS). Zum Vergleich werden folgende Definitionen eines Schwerstverletzten betrachtet: Maximum AIS ≥ 3; Maximum AIS ≥ 4; ISS ≥ 9; ISS ≥ 16; NISS ≥ 16, Polytrauma sowie die Notwendigkeit der Intensivtherapie. Am Beispiel des Kriteriums "ISS ≥ 16" werden schließlich auf drei verschiedene Arten die Gesamtzahl Schwerstverletzter Verkehrsunfallopfer geschätzt: 1.) in fünf ausgewählten Regionen werden die Schwerstverletzten aus dem TR-DGU mit der Anzahl Schwerverletzter aus der amtlichen Statistik verglichen, um den Anteil der besonders schwer betroffenen Patienten zu bestimmen. 2.) Aus dem TR-DGU wird je nach Versorgungsstufe des Krankenhauses (lokales, regionales oder überregionales Zentrum) die durchschnittliche Anzahl Schwerstverletzter ermittelt und dann über die Anzahl solcher Kliniken in Deutschland hochgerechnet. 3.) Die Zahl der Schwerstverletzten wird aus der Zahl der Getöteten Verkehrsunfallopfer geschätzt. Dazu nutzt man das Verhältnis von in der Klinik verstorbenen zu überlebenden Schwerstverletzten aus dem TR-DGU. Mit Literaturangaben zum Anteil von präklinisch Verstorbenen wird dann auf der Basis der Anzahl der Getöteten aus der amtlichen Statistik die Gesamtzahl Schwerstverletzter geschätzt. Je nach Definition eines Schwerstverletzten konnten zwischen 9.213 und 17.425 Fälle aus dem TR-DGU der letzten 10 Jahre berücksichtigt werden. Von diesen Patienten sind zwischen 12,7% und 20,2% im Krankenhaus verstorben. Die Krankenhaus Liegedauer der Überlebenden liegt zwischen 30 und 35 Tagen. Nimmt man die Definition "ISS -³ 16" als Basis (n=13.467), so reduziert sich die Zahl Schwerstverletzter um 37%, wenn man stattdessen den Begriff des Polytraumas wählt; betrachtet man hingegen die Intensivpflichtigkeit als Kriterium so erhöht sich die Zahl um 22%. Der erste Schätzansatz kommt zum Ergebnis, dass etwa 8-10% der Schwerverletzten zu den besonders schwer Verletzten zählen. Für ganz Deutschland erhält man damit Schätzwerte zwischen 6.300 und 7.900 Fälle pro Jahr. Die zweite Methode ergab, dass die Krankenhäuser der drei unterschiedlichen Versorgungsstufen jeweils 30,2, 11,5 oder 3,3 Fälle pro Jahr behandeln. Bezogen auf die 874 deutschen Kliniken ergeben sich geschätzte Gesamtzahlen von 6.800 bis 10.400 Fälle. Die dritte Methode zeigt, dass pro Patient, der im Krankenhaus verstirbt, 6,3 Schwerstverletzte überleben. Im Krankenhaus versterben jedoch etwa nur 25% bis 40% der insgesamt Getöteten; der Großteil der Getöteten verstirbt unmittelbar an der Unfallstelle. Damit müssen noch 1,5 bis 3 Todesfälle hinzugerechnet werden, was schließlich zu einem Verhältnis von 6,3 Schwerstverletzten zu 2,5 bis 4 Todesfällen führt. Bei einer Gesamtzahl von 5.595 Getöteten (Mittelwert 2002-2008) ergeben sich so Gesamtzahlen von 8.800 bis 14.000 Schwerstverletzte pro Jahr. Die Ergebnisse der angewendeten Schätzmethoden variieren stark und lassen auf eine Gesamtzahl von etwa 10.000 schwerstverletzten Verkehrsunfallopfern pro Jahr in Deutschland schließen. Bei Anwendung der Definition Intensivtherapie ergeben sich sogar etwa 12.500 Fälle. Alle Schätzmethoden sind gewissen Unsicherheiten ausgesetzt, die wenn möglich in Variationsrechnungen berücksichtigt wurden. Eine deutlich verbesserte Schätzung dieser Zahl ist jedoch erst möglich, wenn in wenigen Jahren vollzählige Erfassungen aus den derzeit entstehenden regionalen TraumaNetzwerken der DGU im TraumaRegister vorliegen.
The significant demographic changes are predicted for the European future. The age group over 65 years is permanently increasing and over next 30 years every fourth person will belong to this group. This development will continue so far that by 2050 in many countries will double the percentage of the population aged 65 and more. Many studies analyze the new phenomena of the ageing (graying) society during the last decade. Mobility is integrated part of the life of every citizen, even more it means for the elderly people. The adequate mobility is the precondition for their active life and for their social communication that contribute to their health and functional capacity and their autonomy and independency. The active seniors demand less public support. The mobility of the older citizens is closely linked with health and societal problems and creates an important public challenge. On the other side the participation of seniors in transport due to their limited physical and mental possibilities means for them an increased risk to be injured or killed. The main mobility spaces are roads that can be used not only as a traveler in a vehicle (driver or passenger) but also as a pedestrian or cyclist or even as a motorcyclist. The road traffic is then an opportunity and danger in the same time. The accident analyzes show specific risk features of seniors that are different compared with other age groups. First of all the older road users (65 and more) are facing to the higher risk (number of killed divided by the population size) to be killed in a road accident compared with the group of younger road users (0 - 64). More significant difference can be observed when comparing the road user groups. The fatality percentage of the older pedestrians is 2,5 times higher compared with the group 25 " 64. Similar frequency show the cyclist fatalities. On the other side the vehicle passengers in the younger group have more or less two time higher percentage compared to seniors and in the group of motorcyclists even achieved in 2008 almost five times higher compared with the older group. The share of the old road users fatalities (around 19%) didn"t practically change during the last 10 years in the European average. But comparing the gender involvement (2006) there is an interesting difference " female fatalities make 30, 2%, male fatalities 15, 3% of all fatalities in their groups. The risk of the senior users is more connected with their physical and mental limits than with their risk behavior. According to the Czech statistics (2007) the vehicle drivers over 65 years cause only 3, 6% of all accidents. The solution of the problem is to minimize the risk and to create a safe environment for the elderly people using the roads. In order to achieve this goal a deep knowledge of risk and of accident circumstances, full understanding of the behavior of the seniors and their limitations and accommodating approach of the whole society is necessary. Road risk of the ageing society has to be considered as a part of the health and social policy. These can build a creditable basis for the implementation of the measures that secure safe moving of seniors on the roads.
Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten, die durch Straßenverkehrsunfälle entstehen, umfassen die Personenschadens- und Sachschadenskosten. Diese Kosten werden jährlich durch die Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen ermittelt. Grundlage für diese Berechnung ist ein Rechenmodell aus dem Jahre 1996. Seit dieser Zeit sind deutliche Veränderungen eingetreten. Die Änderungen betreffen die Unfallzahlen und die Unfallschwere, die Kosten des Gesundheitssystems zur Wiederherstellung, die Einkommensverhältnisse und damit die wirtschaftlichen Verluste von Unfällen sowie der Wissensstand zur Bewertung der Unfallschäden. Die Fortschreibung der volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten durch Straßenverkehrsunfälle erfordert somit eine Überprüfung und Aktualisierung des Rechenverfahrens. Im Auftrag der Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen wurden daher im Rahmen des Forschungsprojektes "Volkswirtschaftliche Kosten durch Straßenverkehrsunfälle in Deutschland" die Kosten der Personen- und Sachschäden neu ermittelt. Im Rahmen des Projektes erfolgte eine Überprüfung und Aktualisierung sämtlicher Rechenmodelle für die einzelnen Kostenkomponenten. Beispielsweise wurde der polizeiliche Bearbeitungsaufwand für einen Unfall auf Basis von Angaben der Landesinnenministerien neu ermittelt und die Rechtsprechungskosten wurden auf Grundlage der Rechtschutzstatistiken des Statistischen Bundesamtes neu bewertet. Für die Berechnung der Unfallkosten wurden zudem die Eingangsdaten, zum Beispiel über die Kosten und die Dauer der medizinischen Behandlung, bei Versicherern vollständig neu erhoben. Zusätzlich zu den bisher vorgenommenen Bewertungen wurden unfallbedingte Zeitverluste auf Bundesautobahnen abgeschätzt und monetär bewertet. Eine Untersuchung der Kosten schwerstverletzter Unfallopfer erfolgte getrennt. Die neu berechneten Unfallkosten betragen im Jahr 2005 annähernd 31.477 Mrd. Euro Die Personenschäden hatten daran einen Anteil von 15.226 Mrd. Euro die übrigen 16.252 Mrd. Euro entfielen auf die Sachschäden.
Sowohl die Zahl der im Straßenverkehr Getöteten wie auch die der Schwerverletzten sind nach Angaben der amtlichen Statistiken in Deutschland seit Jahren rückläufig. Die Gruppe der Schwerverletzten ist allerdings sehr heterogen und umfasst alle Unfallopfer, die für mindestens 24 Stunden in einem Krankenhaus behandelt wurden. Die vorliegende Untersuchung versucht, mit Hilfe von Daten des Traumaregisters der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Unfallchirurgie (DGU) die Frage zu beantworten, ob auch bei den besonders schwer verletzten Verkehrsunfallopfern ein Rückgang der Zahlen zu beobachten ist. Dazu wurden "schwerstverletzte" Patienten definiert als solche, die im Injury Severity Score (ISS) mindestens 9 Punkte erreicht haben und zudem intensivmedizinisch behandelt werden mussten. Der Zeitraum der Untersuchung umfasst zehn Jahre von 1997 bis 2006, der für einige Fragestellungen zusätzlich in zwei je 5-jährige Phasen unterteilt wurde. Ab 2002 (Phase 2) ist auch eine separate Auswertung für Fahrrad- und Motorradfahrer möglich. Die erste Fragestellung richtete sich auf die Veränderung der Anzahl schwerstverletzter Verkehrsunfallopfer über die Zeit. Dafür wurden die Daten von über 11.000 Patienten aus 67 verschiedenen Kliniken betrachtet. Pro Klinik wurde ein Durchschnittswert für die Anzahl von Verkehrsunfallopfern bestimmt, der dann mit der tatsächlich beobachteten Zahl verglichen wurde. Im Ergebnis zeigte sich, dass die relativen Abweichungen vom Durchschnitt insgesamt nur etwa -±10% betragen und dass kein deutlicher Trend einer Abnahme oder Zunahme der Schwerstverletztenzahlen in den vergangenen 10 Jahren erkennbar ist. In der zweiten Fragestellung wurde untersucht, ob und wie stark ein Rückgang der Letalität zu einem Anstieg der Schwerstverletztenzahlen geführt haben könnte. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass in den letzten beiden Jahren deutlich weniger Patienten im Krankenhaus verstorben sind, als dies nach ihrer Prognose zu erwarten gewesen wäre. Dieser Rückgang der Letalitätsrate von absolut bis zu 5 (in 2006: Prognose 18% versus beobachtet 13%) trägt damit auch zu einer Zunahme bei der Zahl der Schwerstverletzten bei. Zur Abschätzung der Prognose wurde ein im Traumaregister entwickeltes und validiertes Scoresystem (RISC) eingesetzt. In der letzten Fragestellung sollte geklärt werden, ob sich das Verletzungsmuster bei den Schwerstverletzten in den vergangenen zehn Jahren und abhängig von der Art der Verkehrsteilnahme verändert hat. Insgesamt konnte gezeigt werden, dass der relative Anteil der Autofahrer rückläufig war, von 60% auf 50%. Bei den verletzten Körperregionen zeigt das Schädel-Hirn-Trauma den deutlichsten Rückgang von 69 % auf 60% insgesamt. Dieser Trend ist bei allen Verkehrsbeteiligten erkennbar. Lediglich Verletzungen der Wirbelsäule werden häufiger gesehen, was aber auch ein Effekt der verbesserten CT-Diagnostik sein kann, zum Beispiel beim Ganzkörper-CT. Je nach Art der Verkehrsbeteiligung zeigen sich sehr unterschiedliche Verletzungsmuster. Verletzungen des Kopfes sind bei Radfahrern und Fußgängern dominierend (über 70%), während Motorradfahrer hier die günstigsten Raten zeigen (45%). Motorrad- und Autofahrer haben die höchsten Raten für Verletzungen des Brustkorbs und im Bauchraum, bedingt durch die im Mittel höheren einwirkenden Kräfte auf den Körper. Insgesamt lassen sich die Daten des DGU-Traumaregisters gut nutzen, um typische Verletzungsmuster zu beschreiben und um relative Veränderungen bei der Zahl der Schwerstverletzten über die Zeit nachzuweisen. Beobachtungszeiträume von zehn Jahren und mehr, wie im vorliegenden Fall, ermöglichen auch aktuelle Trendaussagen. Epidemiologische Aussagen wie in den amtlichen Statistiken sind aber nur sehr eingeschränkt möglich, da das Traumaregister bisher nur auf freiwilliger Basis Daten sammelt.
Gefragt ist nach alterstypischen Verkehrsverstößen, die bei Senioren auf eine zunehmende Verkehrsunsicherheit hinweisen. Die Studie basiert auf Stichprobendaten des Verkehrszentralregisters (VZR) von 350.000 Personen zwischen 35 und 84 Jahren, deren Verkehrsauffälligkeit im Anschluss an eine VZR-Eintragung über zwei Jahre beobachtet wurde. Tatsächlich lässt sich ein alterstypisches Fehlverhalten identifizieren: überwiegend Vorfahrtfehler sowie Fahrmanöver mit hohem Unfallanteil. Zwei gegenläufige Effekte halten sich etwa die Waage: Zum einen weisen Personen mit einem alterstypischen Fehlverhalten in den nachfolgenden Jahren im Vergleich zu Personen mit anderen Delikten erheblich weniger Verkehrsverstöße auf, zum anderen zeigen sie einen bedeutend höheren Unfallanteil an den (reduzierten) VZR-Eintragungen. Beide Effekte werden mit dem Alter prägnanter. Entsprechend dem "Risiko-Homöostase-Modell" versuchen Verkehrsteilnehmer, beide Komponenten im Gleichgewicht zu halten, was mit zunehmendem Alter aber nicht mehr allen gelingt. Diese Ergebnisse wie auch Zahlen der amtlichen Statistik zeigen gegenwärtig aber (noch) kein mit dem Alter bedrohlich steigendes Verkehrsrisiko an. Die vorhandenen Mechanismen " neben der Selbstbeschränkung der Fahrleistung auch die Entziehung der Fahrerlaubnis sowie der Verzicht " scheinen für die weitaus meisten Kraftfahrer auszureichen, ihr steigendes Risiko wegen höherer Fahrunsicherheit im Alter auszugleichen. Auf die Übrigen könnte aufgrund einer VZR-Eintragung mit einem alterstypischen Fehlverhalten durch Verwarnung und Aufklärung, und wenn dies nachweislich einer erneuten Verkehrsauffälligkeit nicht ausreicht, durch weitere Maßnahmen gezielt Einfluss genommen werden. Dies wäre ab einem Alter von 75 Jahren zu erwägen, doch schon ab 70 Jahren zu rechtfertigen. Eine Verwarnung würde ab 70 Jahren gegenwärtig maximal 30.000 Personen pro Jahr betreffen. Mit einer Wiederauffälligkeit innerhalb von zwei Jahren wäre im heutigen System " also ohne Verwarnung " in maximal 2.800 Fällen zu rechnen.