81 Unfallstatistik
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Untersuchungsgegenstand des Forschungsprojektes war die Überprüfung der aktuellen Grenzwertkriterien in Deutschland zur Identifizierung von Unfallhäufungen im Straßennetz. Nach Analyse des IST-Zustandes und der Bestimmung von Defiziten wurden alternative Grenzwertkriterien mit dem Ziel eines optimierten Einsatzes von Ressourcen im Bereich der Örtlichen Unfalluntersuchung überprüft. Auf Grundlage dieser Erkenntnisse erfolgte die Ableitung von Empfehlungen für zukünftige Grenzwertkriterien. Insgesamt wurden verschiedene Grenzwertkriterien getrennt für die Ortslagen innerorts, außerorts (ohne BAB) und Bundesautobahnen mittels einer umfangreichen Unfalldatenauswertung untersucht. Als Untersuchungsgebiete dienten außerorts Bereiche von Bundesländern (Sachsen) oder ganze Bundesländer (Bayern, Rheinland-Pfalz) sowie innerorts Städte verschiedener Größe (Großstädte über 100.000 E, Mittelstädte mit 30.000 bis 100.000 E sowie Durchfahrten von Ortschaften unter 30.000 E) aus vier Bundesländern. Die Untersuchungen lassen sich in folgenden Ergebnissen zusammenfassen:- Bei der Bestimmung der unfallauffälligen Stellen (UAS) mit gleichartigen Unfällen werden ortslagenunabhängig nahezu alle UAS durch die Gleichartigkeit des Unfalltyps identifiziert. Durch die Berücksichtigung von Unfallumständen wie z.B. die Verkehrsbeteiligung werden kaum zusätzliche Stellen erkannt. - Bei der parallelen Betrachtung der drei aktuellen Auswertungszeiträume (1-Jahreskarte, 3-Jahreskarte (P) und 3-Jahreskarte (SP)) wurde festgestellt, dass ein Großteil der UAS, die in der 3-Jahreskarte (SP) auffällig sind, auch in der 3-Jahreskarte (P) als auffällig identifiziert werden. - Die zeitliche Stabilität, d.h. das wiederholte Auftreten eines unfallauffälligen Bereiches in zwei oder mehr aufeinanderfolgenden Betrachtungszeiträumen, erreicht gemessen am Anteil an allen unfallauffälligen Bereichen in einem Ausgangszeitraum weder bei den UAS noch bei den unfallauffälligen Linien (UAL) eine zufriedenstellende Größenordnung. - Aus den unterschiedlichen Kriterien für die Optimierung von Grenzwerten nach einem ausgewogenen Verhältnis von Aufwand und Nutzen resultieren zum Teil unterschiedliche Ergebnisse. Bei der Empfehlung neuer Grenzwerte wurde darauf geachtet, dass bei Anwendung des Grenzwertes mindestens 10% des Gesamtunfallgeschehens im jeweiligen Betrachtungszeitraum bearbeitet werden. Die Empfehlungen beinhalten für die Identifizierung von unauffälligen Bereichen insbesondere Vorschläge zu geeigneten Betrachtungszeiträumen, räumlichen Abgrenzungen von unfallauffälligen Bereichen sowie der Angabe optimierter Grenzwerte differenziert nach Ortslage und Betrachtungszeitraum.
Aus Anlass der schweren Omnibusunfälle im Sommer 1992 hat das Bundesverkehrsministerium die Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt) beauftragt, eine Analyse der Gründe dieser Unfälle zu erstellen. Die vorliegende Sonderauswertung der amtlichen Straßenverkehrsunfallstatistik zur Frage der Sicherheit von Bussen unter Einbezug von Exposure-Daten ist Teil des von der BASt vorgelegten Untersuchungskonzepts. Die Anzahl der Busunfälle mit Personenschaden ist in den Alten Bundesländern von 1980 bis 1991 um insgesamt rund 22 Prozent auf 5.111 Busunfälle gesunken. Insgesamt verunglückten im Jahre 1991 bei Busunfällen 8.099 Personen (4.189 Businsassen), davon wurden 134 getötet (darunter 9 Businsassen). Im Jahre 1991 ereigneten sich in den Neuen Bundesländern 888 Busunfälle mit Personenschaden, dabei verunglückten 1.713 Personen (768 Businsassen), davon 110 (17 Businsassen) tödlich. Businsassen reisen vergleichsweise sicher. Das Unfallrisiko für Busse war zwar im gesamten Untersuchungszeitraum überdurchschnittlich hoch (Bus-Unfallrate 1991: 1,28; Gesamt-Unfallrate 1991: 0,69), ist jedoch auf eine sehr hohe Bus-Unfallrate auf Innerortsstraßen zurückzuführen. Das Risiko für Businsassen war dagegen in jeder Ortslage niedriger als das der Gesamtheit der Verkehrsteilnehmer (Bus-Verunglücktenrate: 0,071; Gesamt-Verunglücktenrate: 0,584). Auf den Bundesautobahnen (BAB) der Alten Bundesländer war die Anzahl der Busunfälle mit Personenschaden mit 238 im Jahre 1991 (703 Verunglückte) deutlich höher als im Jahre 1985, auf Landstraßen hingegen lag die Anzahl der Busunfälle und die Anzahl der Verunglückten niedriger. Die häufigste polizeilich genannte Unfallursache beim Busfahrer war "nicht angepasste Geschwindigkeit". Auf Autobahnen war der Anteil der Nachtunfälle von Bussen auffällig hoch. Auswirkungen der politischen Veränderungen in den osteuropäischen Staaten und der deutschen Wiedervereinigung werden in der Untersuchung des Unfallgeschehens im grenznahen Bereich zu den Neuen Bundesländern und der Auswertung der Herkunft unfallbeteiligter Busse deutlich: Im grenznahen Bereich ereigneten sich im Jahre 1991 rund 22 Prozent aller BAB-Unfälle von Bussen (1985: 14 Prozent), der Anteil der nicht in den Alten Bundesländern zugelassenen, dort aber unfallbeteiligten Busse betrug im Jahre 1991 rund 29 Prozent.
Die Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt) bringt zum Ende jeden Jahres eine Prognose der Unfall- und Verunglücktenzahlen des noch laufenden Jahres heraus, um so über die Entwicklung der Verkehrssicherheit in Deutschland Bilanz ziehen zu können. Dabei wird das Unfallgeschehen nach dem Schweregrad der Konsequenzen, der Ortslage sowie Alter und Art der Verkehrsbeteiligung der Verunglückten in 27 Zeitreihen unterteilt. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt sind die Daten lediglich für die ersten acht oder neun Monate erhältlich. Um Bilanz zu ziehen, werden die Anzahlen der letzten drei oder vier Monate prognostiziert. Gesamtziel des hier beschriebenen Forschungsvorhabens ist die Optimierung der jährlichen Unfallprognosen durch Anwendung von strukturellen Zeitreihenmodellen, bei denen die Vorhersagen aus dem Trend der vorliegenden Monate, und der Dynamik der vorhergehenden Jahre abgeleitet werden. Um dem Einfluss der Witterungsverhältnisse Rechnung zu tragen, werden dabei meteorologische Variablen in das Vorhersagemodell aufgenommen. Um die Modelle zu testen, werden die endgültigen Daten der letzten 15 Jahre jeweils aus den vorläufigen Daten der ersten Monate vorhergesagt und mit den tatsächlich beobachteten endgültigen Unfall- und Verunglücktenzahlen verglichen. Die Resultate zeigen, dass im Vergleich zu den bisherigen Vorhersagen mithilfe der hier vorgestellten Modelle die Vorhersagen für 25 der 27 Reihen präziser werden. Lediglich zwei Reihen zeigen einen leichten Anstieg des Vorhersagefehlers. Beim Vergleich von Modellen mit und ohne meteorologischen Variablen zeigt sich, dass 23 der 27 Reihen besser vorhergesagt werden können, wenn man das Wetter berücksichtigt. Neben der verbesserten Vorhersage ermöglicht die Aufnahme der Wettervariablen auch eine Einschätzung, wie groß der Einfluss der Witterungsgegebenheiten auf das Unfallgeschehen ist. Es zeigt sich also, dass die Anwendung von strukturellen Zeitreihenmodellen und die Berücksichtigung von meteorologischen Variablen zu einer deutlichen Verbesserung der Vorhersagegenauigkeit führen. Die Verbesserung der Vorhersagen durch die Aufnahme von Wettervariablen bestätigt nochmals den Einfluss der Witterungsumstände auf das Unfallgeschehen.
Im Rahmen einer schriftlichen Befragung konnten von rund 15.000 Schülern der Klassen 6, 8 und 10 aus den vier Landkreisen Ammerland, Holzminden, Northeim und Wesermarsch sowie aus den Städten Celle und Hannover Daten zur Verkehrs- und Unfallbeteiligung dieser Personengruppe erhoben werden. Die Befragung wurde im Schuljahr 1987/88 durchgeführt. Aufgrund des hohen Rücklaufs von 86,2 % aller angeschriebenen Schüler ergibt sich ein Befragungsumfang von 6,9 % aller Schüler der Klassen 6,8 und 10 in Niedersachsen. Die Verteilung der befragten Schüler auf die verschiedenen Schulformen spiegelt die niedersächsische Schullandschaft im Bereich der Sekundarstufe I gut wieder. Hinsichtlich der Unfallbeteiligung der Schüler wurde ermittelt, dass die amtlichen Zahlen über Verkehrsunfälle (der Polizei und der Unfallversicherungsträger) deutlich niedriger liegen als die Zahlen der von den Schülern genannten Unfälle. Ferner ist festzustellen, dass die Polizei in den städtischen Regionen wesentlich häufiger zur Unfallaufnahme hinzugezogen wird, als in den ländlich geprägten Regionen. Bezüglich der Verkehrsbeteiligung der befragten Schüler ist festzuhalten, dass sowohl die Dauer der Verkehrsbeteiligung als noch stärker die Art - das heißt die Verkehrsmittelwahl - durch das Alter, das Geschlecht, die besuchte Schulform und auch durch regionale Faktoren bestimmt werden. Diese Tatsache führte zu dem Ergebnis, dass über die Untersuchungsregionen hinausgehende generelle Aussagen zur Verkehrs- und Unfallbeteiligung kaum zu treffen seien. Effektive Unfallanalysen bedürfen der kleinräumigen Betrachtungsweise.
Der vorliegende Bericht analysiert das Unfallgeschehen von Fahrzeugen beim Transport gefährlicher Güter in Verpackungen der Jahre 1987 bis August 1992 auf dem Gebiet der alten Bundesländer. Ein Unfall wird als Gefahrgutunfall definiert, wenn in seinem Verlauf mindestens 100 kg/l Gefahrgut austreten und/oder wenn Personen durch Gefahrgut verletzt werden. Die Untersuchung umfasst insgesamt 90 solcher Unfälle. Angaben zur Dunkelziffer liegen für den Untersuchungszeitraum nicht vor. Um die Repräsentativität der vorliegenden Erhebung abzuschätzen, wurde die Anzahl der Unfälle von Stückgutfahrzeugen mit der in der amtlichen Straßenverkehrsunfallstatistik ausgewiesenen Anzahl verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass ungefähr jeder zweite Unfall mit gefährlichen Gütern im Rahmen der vorliegenden Erhebung nicht erfasst wurde. Ausgehend von der Untersuchung der Unfallmerkmale wie Unfallort, -art und -umstände erfolgt eine Betrachtung der an Gefahrgutunfällen beteiligten Fahrer, wobei die charakteristischen Merkmale der beteiligten Gefahrgutfahrer gesondert hervorgehoben werden. Dabei wird deutlich, dass Gefahrgutunfälle überwiegend auf Autobahnen geschehen und hauptsächlich von den Gefahrgutfahrern verursacht werden. Die gefährliche Ladung war dabei oft sehr mangelhaft gesichert. Die besonderen Gefahren der untersuchten Stückgutunfälle gehen von den transportierten Gefahrgütern aus. Daher werden die Gefahrklassen sowie Transport- und Austrittsmengen der Güter dargestellt. "Entzündbare flüssige Stoffe" (29 Prozent) haben zusammen mit "Giftigen Stoffen" (26 Prozent) den größten Anteil an den transportierten Gefahrgütern. Im Durchschnitt hatten die Stückgutfahrzeuge rund 7.600 kg Gefahrgut geladen, von denen ungefähr 1.300 kg je Unfall freigesetzt wurden. Die Bewertung der Unfallfolgen erfolgt durch eine Abschätzung ihrer volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten. Die ermittelten Kosten werden für Personen- und Sachschäden sowie Primär- und Sekundärschäden ausgewiesen. Die gesamten volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten der 90 untersuchten Unfälle belaufen sich auf circa 20 Millionen DM.
Unfallgeschehen zwischen rechtsabbiegenden Güterkraftfahrzeugen und geradeausfahrenden Radfahrern
(2014)
Abbiege-Unfälle von Fahrzeugen, bei denen Radfahrer zu Schaden kommen, gehören zu den schweren Radfahrunfällen, insbesondere, wenn sie sich in einer "Tote Winkel"-Situation mit einem Güterkraftfahrzeug ereignen. Unklar ist die genaue Anzahl der Unfälle und die Unfallschwere, welche mit dieser Unfallkonstellation in Zusammenhang stehen können. In der Unfall-Analyse wurden dazu Daten der amtlichen Straßenverkehrsunfallstatistik der Jahre 2008 bis 2012 untersucht. Festgestellt wurde, dass diese Unfälle lediglich 1 % aller Radfahrunfälle sowie rund 6 % der insgesamt 406 getöteten Radfahrer darstellen. Durch eine weitere Differenzierung von "Tote Winkel"-Unfällen nach dem zulässigen Gesamtgewicht der Güterkraftfahrzeuge konnte festgestellt werden, dass die schweren Unfälle überwiegend geprägt sind von schweren Güterkraftfahrzeugen mit zulässigem Gesamtgewicht über 7,5 t sowie Sattelschleppern. Theoretisch wird bei jedem 10. "Tote Winkel"-Unfall zwischen einem rechtsabbiegenden, schwerem Güterkraftfahrzeug und einem geradeausfahrenden Radfahrer ungefähr ein Radfahrer getötet. Im laufenden Forschungsvorhaben "Toter Winkel " Konflikt zwischen rechtsabbiegenden Lkw und geradeausfahrendem Radverkehr" sollen die Verkehrssicherheitsdefizite analysiert werden. Des Weiteren wurde ein Forschungsvorhaben "Entwicklung eines Testverfahrens für Nutzfahrzeug-Abbiegeassistenzsysteme" initiiert, um eine Testkonfiguration für die Detektion von Radfahrern und die Warnung des Fahrzeugführers auf Basis von Unfallszenarien abzuleiten.
Small overlap frontal crashes are defined by a damage pattern with most of the vehicle deformation concentrated outboard of the main longitudinal structures. These crashes are prominent among frontal crashes resulting in serious and fatal injuries, even among vehicles that perform well in regulatory and consumer information crash tests. One of the critical aspects of understanding these crashes is knowing the crash speeds that cause the types of damage associated with serious injuries. Laboratory crash tests were conducted using 12 vehicles in three small overlap test conditions: pole, vehicle-to-vehicle collinear, and vehicle-to-vehicle oblique (15-degree striking angle). Field reconstruction techniques were used to estimate the delta V for each vehicle, and these results were compared with actual delta V values based on vehicle accelerometer data. Estimated delta Vs were 50% lower than actual values. Velocity change estimates for small overlap frontal crashes in databases such as NASS-CDS significantly underestimate actual values.
In Germany, in-depth accident investigations are carried out in the Hannover area since 1973. In 1999 a second region was added with surveys in Dresden and the surrounding area. Internationally, the acronym GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study) is commonly used for these surveys. Compared to many other countries, the sample sizes of the GIDAS surveys are much larger. The goal is to collect 1.000 accidents involving personal injuries per year and region. Data collection takes place by using a sampling procedure, which can be interpreted as a two-stage process with time intervals as primary units and accidents as secondary units. An important question is, to what extend these samples are representative for the target population from which they are drawn. Analyses show, for example, that accidents with persons killed or seriously injured are overrepresented in the samples compared to accidents with slightly injured persons. This means, that these data are subject to biases due to uncontrolled variation of sample inclusion probability. Therefore, appropriate weighting and expansion methods have to be applied in order to adjust or correct for these biases. The contribution describes the statistical and methodological principles underlying the GIDAS surveys with respect to sampling procedure, data collection and expansion. In addition, some suggestions regarding potential improvements of study design are made from a methodological point of view.
In recent years special attention has been paid to reducing the number of fatalities resulting from road traffic accidents. The ambitious target to cut in half the number of road users who are killed each year by 2010 compared with the 2001 figures, as set out in the European White Paper "European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide" implies a general approach covering all kinds of road users. Much has been achieved, e.g. in relation to the safety of car passengers and pedestrians but PTW accidents still represent a significant proportion of fatal road accidents. More than 6,000 motorcyclists die annually on European roads which amounts to 16% of the EU-15 road fatalities. The European Commission therefore launched in 2004 a Sub- Project dealing with motorcycle accidents within an Integrated Project called APROSYS (Advanced PROtection SYStems) forming part of the 6th Framework Programme. In a first step, the combined national statistical data collections of Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain were analysed. Amongst other things parameters like accident location, road conditions, road alignment and injury severity have been explored. The main focus of the analysis was on serious and fatal motorcycle accidents and the results showed similar trends in all four countries. From these results 7 accident scenarios were selected for further investigation via such in-depth databases as the DEKRA database, the GIDAS 2002 database, the COST 327 database and the Dutch element of the MAIDS database. Three tasks, namely the study of PTW collisions with passenger cars, PTW accidents involving road infrastructure features, and motorcyclist protective devices have been assessed and these will concentrate inter alia on accident causes, rider kinematics and injury patterns. A detailed literature review together with the findings of the in-depths database analysis is presented in the paper. Conclusions are drawn and the further stages of the project are highlighted.
One of the major problems of road safety in Europe is the powered two wheelers accidents. One of the European countries with one of the highest rates is Portugal where in 2006, mopeds and motorcycles fatalities represented 27% of all road users deaths. In this work, a deep analysis and overview of the current state of mopeds and motorcycles accidents for the 2004-2006 period is presented. Within this period 830 PTW occupants die, 2958 have been severely injured and 25000 suffer slight injuries. A detailed analysis of the conditions of these accidents has been carried out, using the data of the national accident database. This analysis provides global information, about geographic environmental conditions, driver- characteristics among others. From this data detailed information is obtained allowing to know when, where and who. In order to answer the question why more a widely collection of data has been collect for 70 accidents. The data has been collected using OECD methodology. For these accidents a detailed reconstruction has been carried out, what is especially important for fatal accidents where for instance speed in an important factor. From these collection and analysis of data a wider overview of facts and measures are extracted. Among them, some are emphasized such as that the quality and non-use of helmets plays an important role in severe and fatal accidents especially for accidents involving moped vehicles, or speed is the most important factor in fatal accidents involving motorcycles. Concerning motorcycle accident reconstruction, different tools can be used depending of the accident scenario and complexity. For simple cases, with specific characteristics, analytical formulation based in vehicle crash dynamics can be use in order to determine the impact speed of the vehicles impact, analysing the skid marks, deformations, victims rest position and considering parameters (EES, vehicle deceleration, etc). Aspects such as the energy absorption capability of motorcycles are also discussed. In the general cases the accident reconstruction software Pc-Crash has been used for the reconstruction of the accident. In very complex cases, has for instance the impact between motorcyclist and barriers, Madymo software is used especially to determine speed from injuries. An example of the impact of a motorcyclist and a motorcyclist-friendly barrier is present to illustrate the benefits and limitations of such systems.
Pedestrian accidents are one of the major concerns related with road accidents around the world. Portugal has one of the highest rates of pedestrian fatalities in Europe. In this paper an overview conditions were the pedestrian accidents occurred in Portugal is presented. In the last years, a project related with the pedestrian accidents has run in Portugal for the period 2004-2006 where 603 people died, 2097 have been severely injured and about 17000 slightly injured. Within this project all the pedestrian accidents in this period have been analysed providing global information about a wide range of aspects, since location, driver and pedestrian characteristics, weather and road conditions, among others. In addition, 50 in-depth accidents have been investigated and the data collected according the Pendant methodology. For this in-depth methodology detailed information about the accident has been collected, including injuries, vehicle damage, road conditions and road user- behaviour and actions. An accident reconstruction has been carried for each case including the determination of the speeds and driver actions, and the analysis of the contributing factors for the accident. Depending of the accident complexity, different methodologies have been used to analyse these accident, from the classical analytical equations such as Simms and Woods, to the use of detailed computational pedestrian models as those included in the commercial software- PC-Crash-® or Madymo-®. Also one of the goals of our investigation is the development of multibody models and methodologies for the reconstruction of pedestrian accidents. Some of these tools integrated in the commercial software Cosmos Motion-® are presented. The advantages of the different approaches are compared and discussed for some of the accidents investigated. With these tools the impact speed can be determined from the projection distance with analytical tools or PC-Crash-®, but more complex tools should be used to determine speed from the injuries, what is especially important for fatal accidents. The influence of the vehicle geometry and stiffness characteristics is another aspect analysed, where the influence of the vehicle stiffness has been determined using a combined multibody-finite elements approach within the software Madymo-®.
Today, Euro NCAP is a well established rating system for passive car safety. The significance of the ratings must however be evaluated by comparison with national accident data. For this purpose accidents with involvement of two passenger cars have been taken from the German National Road Accident Register (record years 1998 to 2004) to evaluate the results of the NCAP frontal impact test configuration. Injury data from both drivers involved in frontal car to car collisions have been sampled and have been compared, using a "Bradley Terry Model" which is well established in the area of paired comparisons. Confounders " like mass ratio of the cars involved, gender of the driver, etc. " have been accounted for in the statistical model. Applying the Bradley Terry Model to the national accident data the safety ranking from Euro NCAP has been validated (safety level: 1star <2 star <3 star <4 star). Significant safety differences are found between cars of the 1 and 2 star category as compared to cars of the 3 and 4 star category. The impact of the mass ratio was highly significant and most influential. Changing the mass ratio by an amount of 10% will raise the chance for the driver of the heavier car to get better off by about 18%. The impact of driver gender was again highly significant, showing a nearly 2 times lower injury risk for male drivers. With regard to the NCAP rating drivers of a high rated car are more than 2 times more probable (70% chance) to get off less injured in a frontal collision as compared to the driver of a low rated car.
Nachtunfälle : eine Analyse auf der Grundlage der Daten der amtlichen Straßenverkehrsunfallstatistik
(1978)
Im Anschluss an eine Charakterisierung der Nachtunfälle anhand von Einzelstudien werden Untersuchungen referiert, die die Auswirkungen bestimmter Umstände betreffen (Alkohol, Witterungseinflüsse, Unterschiede im Verkehrsaufkommen, Einfluss straßenbaulicher Merkmale, spezielle Orientierungsprobleme, Leistungsfähigkeit des Rettungsdienstes, Gurtanlegeverhalten). Anschließend wird über Untersuchungen berichtet, die die Wirksamkeit von Maßnahmen zur Reduzierung der Nachtunfälle betreffen (Wirksamkeit von Alkoholkampagnen, Überwachungsmaßnahmen und gesetzlichen Regelungen; Beleuchtung bzw. Sichtbarkeit des Verkehrsraumes; Wirksamkeitsuntersuchungen beleuchteter Fußgängerüberwege; Beleuchtung und Sichtbarkeit der Verkehrsteilnehmer; Verbesserung der optischen Führung durch Fahrbahnmarkierungen; Blendschutzeinrichtungen; Wildschutzzäune; Einführung der Sommerzeit; Verbesserung der Unfallrettung). Abschließend werden Fragestellungen vorgelegt, zu denen bisher keine befriedigenden Aussagen vorliegen. - Im zweiten Teil wird zunächst die Bedeutung der Nachtunfälle innerhalb des gesamten Unfallgeschehens in der zeitlichen Entwicklung dargestellt. Anschließend werden die kennzeichnenden Parameter des Unfallgeschehens für Unfälle mit Personenschaden erörtert (Art der Verkehrsteilnahme, Lebensalter sowie Geschlecht der Fußgänger bzw. Fahrer, Ortslage, Uhrzeit, Straßenzustand, Unfalltypen und -ursachen). Danach folgt eine mehrdimensionale Betrachtung zu ausgewählten Problembereichen (Unfallursache Alkohol, ungünstige Witterungsverhältnisse, jugendliche Fahrer von motorisierten Zweirädern, Pkw-Fahrer, Fußgänger). Schließlich wird über künftige Auswertungen berichtet.
Empirical vehicle crashworthiness studies are usually based on national or in-depth traffic accident surveys: Data on accident-involved cars/drivers are analysed in order to quantify the chance of driver injury and to assess certain risk factors like car make and model. As the cars/drivers involved in the same accident form a "cluster", where the size of the cluster equals the number of accident-involved parties, traffic accident survey data are typical multi-level data with accidents as first-level or primary and cars/drivers as secondlevel or secondary units (car occupants in general are to be considered as third level units). Consequently, appropriate statistical multi-level models are to be used for driver injury risk estimation purposes as these models properly account for the cluster structure of traffic accident survey data. In recent years various types of regression models for clustered data have been developed in the statistical sciences. This paper presents multi-level statistical models, which are generally applicable for vehicle crashworthiness assessment in the sense that data on single and multiple car crashes can be analysed simultaneously. As a special case of multi-level modelling driver injury risk estimation based on paired-by-collision car/driver data is considered. It is demonstrated that assessment results may be seriously biased, if the cluster structure inherent in traffic accident survey data is erroneously ignored in the data analysis stage.
While the number of fatal accidents is diminishing every year, there is still a need of improvement and action to prevent these deaths. Basis for this purpose has to be an analysis about the factors influencing the car crash mortality. There are various studies describing the univariate influence of several factors, but crash scenarios are too complex to be described by a single variable. The multivariate analysis respects the interference of the variables and gets so to more detailed and representative results. This multivariate analysis is based on about 2,600 cases (the data have been collected by the accident research units Hannover and Dresden (during the years 1999-2003). This paper presents a multivariate model (containing ten different variables) which detects 93% of these cases properly. This means it detects the cases as truly survived and truly death.
This study that was funded by the Research Association for Automotive Technology (FAT) develops a method for the evaluation of the placement of tanks or batteries by using the deformation frequencies in real-world accidents. Therefore, the deformations of more than 20.000 passenger cars in the GIDAS database are analysed. For each vehicle a contour of deformation is calculated and the deformed areas of the vehicles are transferred in a rangy matrix of deformation. Thereby, the vehicle is divided into more than 190.000 cells. Afterwards, all single matrices of deformation are summarized for each cell which allows representative analyses of the deformation frequencies of accidents with passenger cars in Germany. On the basis of these deformation frequencies it is possible to determine least deformed areas of all passenger cars. Furthermore, intended placements of tanks or batteries can be estimated in an early stage of development. Therefore, all vehicles with deformations in the intended tank areas can be analysed individually. Considering numerous parameters out of the GIDAS database (e.g. collision speed, kind of accident, overlap, collision partner etc.) the occurring forces can be calculated or the deformation frequency can be estimated. Furthermore, it is possible to consider the influence of primary and secondary safety systems on the deformation behaviour. The analysis of "worst case accident events" is an additional application of the calculated matrix of deformation frequency.
Internationally, the need is expressed for harmonized traffic accident data collection (PSN, PENDANT, etc.). Together with this effort of harmonization, traffic accident investigation moves more and more in the direction of accident causation. As current methods only partly address these needs, a new method was set up. The main characteristics of this method are: • Accident/injury causation (associated) factors can objectively be identified and quantified, by comparison with exposure information from a normal population. • All relevant accident and exposure data can be included: human-, vehicle-, and environmental related data for the pre-crash, crash and postcrash situation (the so-called Haddon matrix). The level of detail can be chosen depending on interest and/or budget, which makes the method very flexible. In this paper the accident collection and control group method are presented, including some of the achieved results from a pilot study on 30 truck accidents and 30 control locations. The data were analyzed by using cross-tabulations and classification-tree analysis. The method proved useful for the identification of statistically significant causational aspects.
A lot of factors are related to a road traffic accident; particularly human factors such as road use characteristic, driving maneuver characteristic and safety attitude are the major ones. As a random factor is also included, so it is necessary to minimize the contribution of a random factor to identify human factors related to a road traffic accident. There are several standpoints for traffic accident analysis, such as vehicle-based, location-based and driver-based. And it is effective to analyze driver-based traffic accident data for discussion on the relation between human factors and accidents. An integrated traffic accident database system was developed for analysis considering driver- accident and violation records by ITARD, and several studies were carried out for the evaluation. Useful data for discussion on the relation between types of collision and traffic violations, and the effect of accident experience to the following accident were obtained.
Novice drivers are at high risk for crash involvement. We performed an analysis of causations, injury patterns and distributions of novice drivers in cars and on motorcycles in road traffic as a basis for proper measurements. Method Data of accident and hospital records of novice drivers (licence < 2 years) were analysed focusing the following parameters: injury type, localisation and mechanism, Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS), maximum AIS (MAIS), delta-v, collision speed and other technical parameters and have been compared to those of experienced drivers. In 18352 accidents in the area of Hannover (years1985"2004), 2602 novice drivers and 18214 experienced drivers were recorded having an accident. Novice car drivers were more often and severe injured than experienced and on motorcycles the experienced riders were at higher risk. Novice drivers of both groups sustained more often extremity injuries. 4.5 % novice car drivers were not restraint compared to 3.7 % of the experienced drivers and 6.1 % novice motorcycle drivers did not wear a proper helmet (versus 6.5 %). Severe injuries sustained at a rate of 20 % at collision speeds below 30 km/h and in 80% at collision speeds above 50 km/h. Novice car drivers drove significant older cars. The risk profile of novice drivers is similar to those of drivers older than 65 years. Structural protection and special lectures like skidding courses could be proper remedial action next to harder punishment of violations.
Nowadays, traffic accidents are recorded in historical databases. Regarding the huge quantity of data, the use of data mining tools is essential to help Experts, for automatically extracting relevant information in order to establish and quantify relations between severity and potential factors of accidents. An innovative approach is here proposed for an in depth investigation of real world accidents data base. Mutual information ratio based on conditional entropies is used to quantity the association strength between an accident outcome descriptor (injury severity) and other potential association factors. Information theoretic methods help to select automatically groups of factors mostly responsible of the severity of accident.
The NHTSA-sponsored Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) has collected and analyzed crash, vehicle damage, and detailed injury data from over 4000 case occupants who were patients admitted to Level-I trauma centers following involvement in motor vehicle crashes. Since 2005, CIREN has used a methodology known as "BioTab" to analyze and document the causes of injuries resulting from passenger vehicle crashes. BioTab was developed to provide a complete evidenced-based method to describe and document injury causation from in-depth crash investigations with confidence levels assigned to the causes of injury based on the available evidence. This paper describes how the BioTab method is being used in CIREN to leverage the data collected from in-depth crash investigations, and particularly the detailed injury data available in CIREN, to develop evidence-based assessments of injury causation. CIREN case examples are provided to demonstrate the ability of the BioTab method to improve real-world crash/injury data assessment.
In the context of this study, different data sources for accident research were examined regarding their possible data access and evaluated concerning the individual quality and extent of the data. Analyses of accidents require detailed and comprehensive information in particular concerning vehicle damages, injury patterns and descriptions of the accident sequence. The police documentation supplies the basic accident statistics and is amended in the context of the forensic treatment by further information, e.g. by medical and technical appraisals and witness questionings. As a new approach to the data acquisition for the analysis of fatal traffic accidents, the information was made usable which was collected by the police and by the investigations of the public prosecutor. The best strategy for obtaining reliable, extensive and complete data consists of combining the information from these two sources: the very complete, but elementary statistic data of the Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Statistik (Lower Saxony State Authority of Statistics), based on the police documentation as well as the very extensive accident information resulting from the investigation documentation of the public prosecutor after conclusion of the procedure, the so-called Court Records. Of all 715 fatal traffic accidents, which happened in the year 2003 in the German State of Lower Saxony, 238 cases were selected by means of a statistically coincidental selective procedure based on a statistically representative manner (every third accident). These cases cover the investigation documents of the 11 responsible public prosecutor- offices, which were requested and evaluated while preserving the data security. Of the 238 cases 202 cases were available, which were individually coded and stored in a data base using 160 variables. Thus a data base of a sample of representative data for fatal accidents in Lower Saxony was set up. The data base contains extensive information concerning general accident data (35 variables), concerning road and road surface data (30 variables), concerning vehicle-specific data (68 variables) as well as concerning personal and injury data (27 variables).
The paper gives an overview of the recent (mostly 2012) figures of killed bus/coach occupants (drivers and passengers) in 27 Member States of the European Union as reported by CARE. The Evolution of the figures of bus/coach occupants killed in road accidents urban, rural without motorway and on motorways from 1991 to 2010 in 15 Member States of the EU supplements this information. More detailed are the figures reported for Germany by the Federal Statistics. The paper displays long-term evaluations (1957 to 2012) for killed, seriously and slightly injured occupants in all kinds of buses/coaches. Midterm evaluations (1995 to 2012) of the figures of fatalities and casualties are displayed for different busses according to their identification of road using as coaches, urban buses, school buses, trolley buses and "other buses". To be able to compare the evolutions of the safety of vehicle occupants it is customary to use different risk indicators. Calculations and illustrations for three often used indicators with their development over time are given: fatalities, seriously injured and slightly injured per 100,000 vehicles registered, per 1 billion (109) vehicle-kilometres travelled and per 1 billion (109) person-kilometres. These indicators are shown for occupants of cars, goods vehicles and buses/coaches. For the period from 1957 until 2012 it is obvious, that for all three vehicle categories analysed there was a clear long-term trend towards more occupant safety in terms of casualties per vehicles registered and per vehicle mileage. This was most significant for car occupants but it can be seen for bus/coach occupants and goodsvehicle occupants as well. Figures of killed occupants and of casualties related to person-kilometres are calculated and displayed for the shorter period 1995 to 2012. Here it becomes obvious that the bus/coach is still the safest mode of transport for the occupants of road vehicles. Graphs for the casualty risk indices still show significantly higher risks for car occupants despite the corresponding curve moved sustainable downwards. It is remarkable, that the risks of being killed or injured for the occupants of urban buses is growing whereas the corresponding risk for the occupants of coaches in line traffic tends downwards. The article ends with a short comparison and discussion of the risk indicators which are actually published for the occupants (driver and passengers) of cars and the passengers of buses/coaches, railroads, trams and airplanes. The interpretation of such information depends on the perception and it seems that for a complete view not only one indicator should be used and the evolutions of the indicator values during longer periods (as displayed with examples in the paper) should also be taken into account.
The primary goal of this investigation was to determine the relative risk of traffic accidents in students. In a two year period, a survey amongst 2,325 students was carried out, and 3,645 injuries sustained by students treated at our hospital were analyzed. Moped-riding in adolescents were associated with a 23.75-fold increased risk for injury as compared to biking. Children who ride bicycles have a 2.2-fold increased risk for an injury sustained by traffic accidents compared to pedestrians. None of 50 injured bicycle riders with helmet had an AIS for head injuries of more than 2. 24 of 233 injured bicycle drivers without helmet had an AIS for head injuries of more than 2. The use of a protective helmet significantly reduced the severity of head injuries. The level of awareness towards danger and a history of previous accidents correlate with the likelihood of future accidents. Due to the severity of traffic accidents, more adequate prevention measures (wearing of bicycle helmets and better education for moped riders) are urgently needed.
Estimation of the benefits for the UK for potential options to modify UNECE Regulation No. 95
(2010)
The side impact problem in Europe remains substantial. UK data shows that between 22% and 26% of car occupant casualties are involved in a side impact, but this rises to between 29% and 38% for those who are fatally injured. This indicates the more injurious nature of side impacts compared with frontal impacts. The European Enhanced Vehicle safety Committee (EEVC) has performed work to address the side impact issue since 1979. As part of its continuing work, it has recently investigated potential options for regulatory changes to improve side impact protection in cars further. To support this work the UK undertook an analysis to estimate the benefit for potential options to modify UNECE Regulation 95. The analysis used the UK national STATS19 and detailed Co-operative Crash Injury Study (CCIS) accident databases. Of the potential options reviewed, it was found that the addition of a pole test offered the greatest benefit.